It will be all about “Dolly” over the next 24-36 hours as this system is heading for the warmest waters (85-88 degrees) in the Gulf of Mexico later tonight and tomorrow. The major impacts with this system should bypass us to the south but we will likely see some fringe effects across Acadiana, especially across the coastal parishes. Dolly is expected to continue on a west-northwestward path but slow down tomorrow over the warmest part of the Gulf. Therefore, Dolly has good potential to become a hurricane prior to a Wednesday landfall across the Lower Texas Coast, with the National Hurricane Center indicating at least Category 1 potential. Fortunately a ridge of high pressure aloft over the Northern Gulf Rim should stay strong enough to keep Dolly on the projected path but there will likely be some sort of an enhancement to our rain chances for late tomorrow and especially Wednesday. In addition, swells will build in along our coast from the south and east later tonight with tides likely increasing to 1-2ft above normal tomorrow and possibly 2-4ft above normal on Wednesday. Check with the National Weather Service regularly for the latest updates and also download the KATC Desktop Weather Lab so you have the latest watches and warning data available locally instantly on your desktop. Right now just a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Cameron, Vermilion, Iberia and St Mary Parishes, but additional coastal watches or warnings will be possible along the coast through at least Wednesday. Our rain chances inland could be enhanced tomorrow and should be Wednesday possibly into Thursday but forecasting where tropical rain bands form is always tricky with well–developed tropical systems producing sinking air around them cutting down on activity…they can also enhance activity depending on how perturbations from the storm propagate away from the system, and what phase the storm is in. Our most prudent course will be to raise the chance of rain through mid-week with the pattern settling down to a more sedate summer pattern later this week. Stay with KATC for regular updates…Rob Perillo
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