KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

We had another healthy round of showers and storms this afternoon with isolated microbursts producing wind damage in the Breaux Bridge area and more than likely along the coastal marshes of Vermilion and Cameron Parishes. A light northerly flow aloft has brought in colder air at 15,000-25,000ft allowing for storms to rapidly intensify and produce gusty winds and some hail. Activity will likely keep going through the evening hours tapering off or moving into the Gulf by 10:00pm-11:00pm. In addition, a large meso-convective complex advanced from Texas into Southwest Louisiana during the afternoon producing isolated severe weather over eastern Texas into extreme Western Louisiana. As the activity moved into Western Louisiana it started to slowly weaken, but at least some folks are getting some much needed rains in the parched areas to our west. The storm complex has also thrown a large cirrus shield over most of us this evening which will keep it quite steamy through much of the night. In addition to the upper disturbances that have been drifting from the north to the south a weak frontal boundary draped across the region will remain a lower level surface focusing mechanism again tomorrow so expect more hefty storms during the daytime heating hours tomorrow. Rain chances should decrease a little before the weekend but should be enhanced once again this Saturday in response to another round of upper disturbances that will be rolling southward from the north. Unfortunately the heat and humidity with the more active afternoon weather will stay with us for a while, but models are trying to bring our highs and lows down a few degrees by this weekend…seems plausible…we can only hope!

It’s been a busy afternoon with some intense to severe thunderstorms activity. Storm produced up to 70mph winds across extreme southeastern Lafayette Parish east of Youngsville and long I-10 across portions of Jeff Davis Parishes. Still active weather at this point so I will departing shortly to get back onto our weather systems.

You should also check out our new desktop weather alerting system for your pc; Weather Lab at Your Desk is a downloadable weather widget that you can customize to get the latest severe weather information to your desktop, email and to your cell phone. There is an integrated hurricane tracker with this utility, and what I like about it is that we can fire off weather and news alerts before any warnings or advisories are issued. Give it a try and send the link to your family and friends. More when the weather quiets down! Rob

We had more scattered storms today with the aid of an upper level low and a front to our north. Some of those storms were pretty strong with frequent lightning and heavy downpours, typical of this time of year. It looks like that front to our north will push east allowing for high pressure to slide in just in time for Father’s Day. That will bring the rain chances down but we still could have more showers with the daytime heating, but not as widespread as the past couple of days. For the work-week it looks like rain will stay away for a few days and temperatures will reach into the mid 90s. There’s not a whole lot going on in the tropics but a couple of upper level lows and nothing expected to develop in the next few days.

Healthy tropical showers and embedded thunderstorms will be a good bet this weekend as deep tropical moisture further entrenches across the region. The wildcard this weekend will be a frontal trough to our north that could possibly help dry us out a little for Sunday, but that scenario is becoming less likely, and probably will get delayed until Monday. While the larger scale computer models are trying to dry us out, our in-house high resolution model is indicating slower movement of the drier air and has the trough actually enhance the rain chances. Since we can’t ignore this model solution, I’m keeping the chance of showers and storms elevated for Sunday as well. Expect locally heavy downpours over the next few days with embedded storms a little stronger tomorrow, and perhaps even more dynamic on Sunday. No organized severe weather is anticipated but there will likely be some intense cells in few spots, especially Sunday. As expected per the last couple of blog entries, we did receive a report of a funnel cloud near Jennings this afternoon, and a would expect to get a few more reports over this weekend so keep a close eye on the sky when the showers begin to develop during the mid-late morning hours. Hopefully everyone gets the rain they need this weekend…and that your Father’s Day is not too interrupted by the storms!

A tropical atmosphere will take hold across Acadiana for our Friday and Saturday as a tropical wave in the Bay of Campeche and a mid-upper low in the Central Gulf of Mexico are drifting to the north and west. These features will shuttle in the deepest tropical moisture we have seen so far this year yielding healthy chances of getting wet. Locally heavy downpours and embedded thunderstorms will be likely in spots. In addition, as I mentioned in yesterday’s entry, I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a few reports of tropical funnels inland and/or waterspouts offshore. Showers and storms will also be likely for Saturday while a frontal trough to our north tries to dry us out for Sunday, but we’ll likely still see at least some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity for Father’s Day. With the additional cloud cover and showers, temperatures should stay in the mid-upper 80s over the next couple of days, returning to the lower 90s for Sunday. It looks hotter and a little drier early next week, but a few rather healthy storms dropping in from the north will be a distinct possibility during the late afternoon and evening hours mid-late next week.

Hopefully the skies stay fair enough this evening for viewing the “double fly-by” of the International Space Station and Space Shuttle Discovery shortly after 9:30pm tonight. Both objects should appear low in the western sky (15 degrees above the horizon) at 9:36pm for the space station and at 9:37pm for the shuttle. The space station will be visible first and should be brighter than the shuttle. We may see some interesting reflections coming off of both crafts since the objects will be directly to the west. They will be heading southward so if you face west the objects will be moving from right to left. Again clouds could be an issue tonight, so no promises!

Weather-wise, we will see more typical summer weather tomorrow with a few scattered afternoon showers and storms. Deeper tropical moisture associated with a northern end of tropical wave traversing the Southern Gulf of Mexico should usher in deeper tropical moisture across the area so rain chances should be better than 50% for Friday and Saturday. Don’t be surprised if we see and hear more about tropical funnel clouds Friday and Saturday, especially offshore, as quickly developing tropical showers and storms normally produce dozens funnels and occasional waterspouts. This occurs every year once we get into June and the tropical moisture surges. Although not nearly as strong as tornadoes, and very different in their evolution, waterspouts and tropical funnels, if they reach the ground, can produce 40-70mph winds. Rain chances should begin to decrease for Sunday as upper flow changes around to the north. This should temporarily dry us out into early next week, but we may see more robust late afternoon/early evening storms by mid-next week that could persist well into the night time hours. Rain chances should be too high next week, but if we see a storm or two, they will be healthy.

As expected we saw a scattering of showers and storms across the region today with a slow moving heavy storm producing 2-4 inches of accumulations across the southeast part of Lafayette. Scattered mainly afternoon storms will stay with us over the next couple of days with an increase in tropical moisture still expected for Friday and/or Saturday. Daily rain chances should stay with us into early next week. Away from the storms the heat and humidity will continue…so in other words, summer is really here!

The International Space Station should be visible over Acadiana’s skies over the next several nights, provided the weather and sky cover cooperates. Tonight the station with the shuttle attached should be streaking across the northern skies at 8:52pm this evening heading into the eastern sky and back behind the earth’s shadow at 8:56pm. The craft won’t be too high off the horizon, about 24 degrees, but should be high enough for a good view provided the debris clouds from leftover shower and thundershower activity from earlier today dissipates. If not, check the above link for additional times later this week.

I have raised the chance of getting wet a little for tomorrow in response to a healthy frontal trough that will stay to our north. Some atmospheric perturbations could travel into our area and ignite a slightly better chance of widely scattered showers and storms mainly tomorrow afternoon. Rain chances should stay at or slightly below normal through Wednesday, but deeper tropical moisture and more instability will be working their way into the Gulf of Mexico which should eventually send a better chance of showers and storms our way later this week. Current thinking is that the best rain chances will come Friday and Saturday with much needed rain and perhaps some embedded strong storms and heavy downpours.

This week should bring a better chance of daytime showers and thunderstorms, especially late in the week and more than likely continuing into the weekend. While high pressure at the surface remains anchored near Florida, the upper ridge that has been so dominant across our area is slowly breaking down. This should open the door for deeper tropical moisture to push into the region from the Gulf and the tropics, especially for later in the week. I have kept rain chances closer to 20% early this week, but we will see more activity as compared with this past weekend. Precipitation coverage and intensity should be more robust later in the week with heavier downpours, some thunder, and more than likely a few tropical funnel clouds…it is that time of year. So get the umbrella ready, you will more than likely need it before this week ends.

While the tropics are quiet, it is definitely time to get ready for hurricane season now; below I have included some links from Donovan Landreneau at the National Weather Service. He and the NWS Lake Charles office have put together some excellent links and downloads to help us all get ready for later this summer.

“My name is Donovan Landreneau, Meteorologist (Forecaster) here at the National Weather Service Lake Charles, LA since 1999. I also run the Hurricane and Marine programs. I would like to take this opportunity to share some new Hurricane Preparedness Materials and Marine News available from our website.

Hurricane Preparedness Materials:
The 2008 Southwest Louisiana and Southeast Texas Hurricane and Marine Guide is now available as a link from the National Weather Service Lake Charles, LA website, or at:
http://www.srh.weather.gov/lch/tropical/LCHHurricaneGuide.pdf

Individual parish or county maps displaying the Limits of Storm Surge Inundation can be found at:
http://www.srh.weather.gov/lch/tropical/StormSurgeMaps.php

Other tropical related information can be found on the National Weather Service Lake Charles, LA Tropical page at:
http://www.srh.weather.gov/lch/tropical/tropic.php

Marine News:
On Wednesday, October 1, 2008, the marine zones will be improved to include major inland lakes and bays. The new marine zones to be added within the Lake Charles area of responsibility are Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake, and Vermilion Bay. More information, as well as a graphic of the changes, can be found at:
http://www.srh.weather.gov/lch/marine/newmarinezones2008.php”

Sunday is June 8^th which per Cajun Folklore is St Medard’s Day.  The Cajun pronunciation is “sam-e-da”.  St Medard is the patron saint of weather and rain.  St Medard lived in 5^th Century France.  Per the link, “Legend says that when he was a child, Medard was once sheltered from the rain by a hovering eagle. This is his most common depiction in art, and led to his patronage of good weather, against bad weather, for people who work the fields, etc. Legend has it that if it rains on his feast day, the next 40 days will be wet; if the weather is good, the next 40 will be fine as well. He was also depicted as laughing aloud with his mouth wide open; this led to his patronage against toothache.”

Traditional Cajun translation in Acadiana refers to that if it rains on June 8^th there will be daily daytime showers and storms for the next 40 days…we are forecasting rain chance this Sunday to be near 20% so we’ll see!  For now we will continue to forecast per model guidance and more contemporary meteorological means!

There is little change in the “contemporary” forecast thinking over the weekend into next week, with breezy, hot and humid conditions continuing this weekend with about a 20% chance of a few quick tropical showers during the afternoons and early evenings.  A slight increase in tropical moisture and more instability should lead to slightly better chances of daytime showers and a few thunderstorms especially into mid-late next week.