KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Finally a break from scattered rain every day. The cold front has pushed into the Gulf allowing for high pressure to keep the rain out of the near term forecast. Even though the sunny skies will last for just a few days, it is much welcomed so that we all may get a chance to wash our car. The storms that rolled through Sunday evening produced some very interesting cloud formations which a few viewers sent pictures of.  These clouds took on almost an arcus appearance because of the rain cooled air interacting with the warm humid air. Ahead of the outflow from the heavy rain, the clouds looked like they were being pulled down. Check them out.

We have dealt with rounds of storms each and every day for the past week but there is finally a glimmer of light in the forecast. A rare late June cold front moving through the southern plains is expected to have enough momentum to make it to Acadiana on Monday. That will help usher in drier air on Tuesday and Wednesday pushing the rain chances down to 20%. At this point the computer models are mostly agreeing on this scenerio and hopefully it holds up. The forecast for the 4th of July is still looking like a chance of afternoon storms as a return flow sets up again for the end of the week. That will put us back in the pattern of seabreeze storms with the daytime heating.

We had a beautiful double rainbow Friday evening with the second round of storms but by the time our camera captured the image it was just one rainbow. Double rainbows are quite rare but are caused from the sunlight shining through the raindrops. The rain refracts the light breaking it down into it’s primary colors. That gives us the illusion of a rainbow. If its bright enough, a double rainbow will appear and it’s basically a reflection of the rainbow through the showers. The colors are reversed in the second bow and it’s usually fainter than the first.

Not much has changed over the past few days with temperatures reaching 90 then storms firing up in the afternoon. Near 90 degrees has been what we call the convective temperature, the temperature the earth must warm to in order for storms to develop with the lack of a front or lifting mechanism. Once that temperature has been reached the air is free to rise and condense into the clouds which later form storms.

Some areas had some pretty heavy rain today as storms trained over the same place. There was a flood advisory issued for St. Martin and Iberia parishes today. Rainfall estimates from radar indicate that some received up to 4 inches of rain. From just northwest of Loreauville to southern St. Martin parish there was a swath of 4 inches with another area from between New Iberia and Jeanerette that also had that amount. Elsewhere, most of us racked up on 0.5 to over 3 inches in the rain bucket. Lafayette recorded 1.42 at the airport.

Seabreeze storms will continue through the weekend and into next week with seasonable temperatures. I’m now able to get a peek at the preliminary July 4th forecast and it looks like a chance of rain in the afternoon then tapering off in the evening as we have experienced everyday lately. The tropics are still quiet with nothing expected to develop in the next couple of days.

Scattered storms fired up once again today with a few more than yesterday. Wednesday coverage of afternoon storms is expected to increase. There was one report of severe weather today in Ville Platte with a storm that produced penny size hail before it moved north. Over Alexandria that same storm produced a gust of 67 mph and one inch hail, temporarily knocking out the weather recording station at the airport. I would expect the possibility of severe storms just about everyday this week into the weekend as the pattern stays the same with a strong influx of tropical moisture. Today one viewer called to tell me they spotted mammatus clouds in north Lafayette. It was likely because of the Ville Platte storm but mammatus clouds are caused by very strong storms in the latter stages of development. They look like pouches because the cooler pockets of air sink down into the cloud. If the sun is setting you see them more clearly because the sun highlights the downward protrusions. They are always intresting to see and I think we will have more chances of that in the next couple of days.

Most of us had mostly sunny skies through the day with tempertatures in the low 90s. There were a few isolated storms moving in with the daytime heating. These slow moving showers can dump over an inch of rain and produce frequent lightning. I think we’ll see a few more storms Tuesday as moisture continues to increase but for most of the day it will be sunny and hot. Now computer models are hinting at deep tropical moisture advecting into Acadiana on Wednesday and Thursday. All we’ll need is daytime heating and the seabreeze to kick off more rain but it will be more widespread will the available moisture. We’ll have to keep an eye on these storms because occasionally they cause some localized flooding. Looks like there will be a chance of rain everyday as the pattern stays the same.

Today was much better without the severe storms. We only had a few seabreeze storms develop near the coast but as they moved inland they weakened. Seabreeze storms develop when the land heats up faster than the Gulf and the cooler air over the water moves inland as a small scale cool front. The differences in temperature and dewpoint causes the air to rise and produce rain. Most seabreeze showers are very heavy with occasional lightning and collapse before they reach I-10. At night the pattern reverses itself as the land cools and the water is warmer, storms develop offshore. This is what we can expect through the work-week as ridging aloft keeps any organized storms from forming. Skies will stay mostly sunny through about Wednesday before deep tropical moisture makes a comeback. Still not much going on in the tropics and hopefully it will stay that way.

Not as many reports of severe weather as Friday but still a rough start to summer. We had half of an inch to one inch hail in Lafayette, wind damage in Vermilion parish around the Mouton Cove area, and possibly wind damage in Baldwin. Storms produced frequent lightning, torrential rain, gusty winds, and hail.  This picture was sent from South Lafayette of hail that came down around the Verot School Road and Pinhook area.

After the storms we had a beautiful sunset with orange and yellow hues in the sky. There was also a double rainbow and a Broussard couple captured the images.

Sunday should be much better with the best rain chances near the coast and drier air moving in as the front which triggered today’s storms move south. Through next week high pressure moves in and rain showers will be few and far between.

Active thunderstorms across the area today produced very heavy downpours, some small hail, frequent cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds. I would expect more of the same tomorrow as a frontal trough continues to interact with our typical summer scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Rain chances should be a healthy 60% with activity likely to fire-up during the mid-morning hours ending toward the latter part of the afternoon into the evening. Again we could see some “pulse” intense to isolated severe storms Saturday but drier more stable air should move in for Sunday leading to quieter weather and allowing temperatures to get back into the low-mid 90s. It looks like it will be quite hot and humid with slight rain chances Sunday through early next week, but afternoon storms will be back with us for sure for the mid-latter part of next week. I’m planning on taking some time off next week (hey us weather guys need some time off every now and then…especially before the heart of hurricane season!) So I’ll be back blogging after a few days. Have a good weekend.

More heat and humidity with scattered showers and thunderstorms will stay with us as we “officially” head into summer at 6:59pm Friday. Once again on Friday we’ll see sea breeze showers and a few storms enhanced by a few disturbances that will continue to drop out of the Plains States. The models continue to be aggressive with upper level instability with enhanced thunderstorm activity for Saturday so I’m keeping the best coverage of storms for that day. Slightly drier and more stable air should advance into the region behind Saturday’s active system so rain chances should be lower. Heat and humidity with widely scattered afternoon storms will likely stay with us through much of next week. The long range outlook as we finish off June (toward the end of next week) and head into July will shift our pattern to more in the way of tropical easterlies. I would look for more tropical wave action in the Northwest Caribbean moving into the Gulf but there are currently no signals for anything significant at this time.

Our weather pattern hasn’t changed but today most of us got a break from the healthy afternoon storms. The upper level flow remains from the north-northwest with storms over the last few days emanating from the High Plains and then dropping to the Gulf Coast. Another storm complex that was in Nebraska last night has been heading our way with the remnants over the NW part of the state as of late this afternoon. Storms have sparked off this evening in Allen and Jeff Davis Parishes and may continue to build to the southeast across portions of Acadiana during this evening…thus we’ll go with a 30% chance of storms through about 10:00pm-11:00pm. While the models are not capturing this weather pattern well the forecast will keep the chance of showers and storms through the end of the week, into the weekend and into at least early next week. The timing and intensity of these disturbances rolling out of the Plains is nearly impossible but our best rain chances will likely be during the afternoon and evening hours. This weekend there is some evidence of increased instability so count on some healthy storms.