KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

NOAA will come out with their Hurricane Season 2008 forecast Thursday that will likely yield a forecast similar to that of Drs. Klotzbach’s and Gray’s. The emphasis as always will be preparation, no matter how busy or not the season will be.

While on the subject, Tom  Knutson of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL) published a paper reaffirming Dr. Chris Landsea’s theory that there is no evidence that a warmer global climate has produced a higher number or more intense hurricanes.  Knutson’s model does not show a significant increase in net tropical cyclone intensity nor an increase in numbers of systems in a warmer world.   This would certainly contradict suppositions made by many others, including Al Gore et al who claim that storms like Katrina/Rita have been brought on by our warming trend.  As for the tropics and global warming, obviously the “debate” is not over.   Now for those of you looking for a really different tilt on Global Warming, check out John Coleman’s Rant about the subject.  Coleman was the founder of the Weather Channel, but his views while on the other end of the global warming spectrum, are at the very least, like the man, entertaining.      

A disturbance rolling out of northern Mexico will move northeastward through tomorrow as a storm system in the High Plains deepens.  This will bring a plume of deeper tropical moisture into the region yielding scattered showers and storms for our Thursday.  The deepest plume of moisture should be over Eastern Louisiana through the Central and Eastern Gulf States where I expect the highest rain chances tomorrow.  Nonetheless expect a healthy scattering of showers and storms tomorrow with rain chances decreasing slightly for Friday.  A “dirty” summer ridge of high pressure will envelope the region this weekend into early next week allowing for hot and humid conditions with scattered daytime showers and a few afternoon thunderstorms…in other words…a typical summer like forecast for the Memorial Day holiday weekend.  The models are hinting at a tropical wave entering the Gulf of Mexico from the east and allowing for an increase in our rain chances by next Tuesday.  Interestingly enough, as I alluded to more than a week ago, the models continue to show a developing tropical disturbance in the NW Caribbean the last few days of this month eventually moving northeastward during the first few days of June.  This would be right on schedule for the beginning of hurricane season. 

The weather continues to cooperate after a crazy weekend with our coverage of the train derailment. It is getting warmer courtesy of breezy southwest winds and I expect more of the same for our Tuesday with highs approaching 90. Humidity and clouds will begin to increase Wednesday with very slight rain chances at best. Soupy summer-like conditions are anticipated later this week into the weekend with deeper tropical moisture advancing into the region; daytime showers and storms should be the result. Rain chances should be in the 30-40% range starting Thursday and will likely continue into the weekend. So get ready for an extended taste of the summer to come!

Our weather will continue to improve as we head into the weekend as drier air is moving in from the north. Upper instability over Mexico will continue to send some high level cloudiness our way at times Saturday but there should be healthy intervals of sunshine as well. Highs Saturday will be dictated by the thickness of the high clouds so mid-upper 70s would be a good call on the temperature range. Partly cloudy and warmer conditions are anticipated on Sunday as winds turn west-southwesterly shooting our temperatures well back into the mid-80s Sunday afternoon. Humidity will stay comfortable this weekend into Monday but the heat will turn on as upper high pressure expands across the Gulf. This will bring our highs to near 90 Monday and more than likely lower 90s through midweek. Higher humidity will start to move in for Tuesday with a tropical feeling to the heat likely mid-late in the week. By next Thursday/Friday there may be a surge of tropical moisture from the Gulf allowing for a few tropical showers or thundershowers. Have a great weekend.

Storms this morning brought one of the bigger widespread severe weather events (outside of hurricanes) to Acadiana, and particularly to Lafayette, in more than a decade. Numerous reports of significant wind damage came into the KATC newsroom this morning with many reports of greater than 65mph winds. Tornadoes in Lafayette Parish and the city were the result of storm cell mergers with a squall line associated with a mesoconvective complex that developed in Texas last night. Roger Erickson, Warning Coordinating Meteorologist with the NWS in Lake Charles surveyed damage in the Oil Center in Lafayette and indicated that the damage was probably the result of an EF1 tornado with 86-110mph winds. Refer to our news page for some of the latest video. Damage was also particularly bad in the Breaux Bridge area with what looks to be at least 80-90mph rotating winds. Damage was reported in every Acadiana parish with 65mph wind gusts reported by trained weather observers and at my house near Comeaux High at 6:45 this morning. 3-4” of rain was common area-wide within a two hour time-frame, so localized flooding was also an issue early this morning. With all the damage, we were quite fortunate not to have many injuries reported, but this was because the storms arrived early; an hour or two later, it would likely have been much worse with many more people on the road or at work. However, there was one fatality reported in Grosse Tete in Iberville Parish as a tree fell on a mobile home killing a 70 year old man. Quieter conditions are ahead but there will still be the risk of isolated shower activity tonight and a few showers and storms possible tomorrow, especially along the coastal parishes early in the day. If another mesoconvective complex gets going tonight or tomorrow, it will likely be in the Gulf of Mexico, so mariners beware. Drier weather will be moving into the region during the day tomorrow with much more comfortable conditions expected this weekend. Don’t miss our 10pm newscast tonight for the latest on the storm damage and power outage updates.

Big storms developed across the area this afternoon with St Landry Parish hardest hit with 4-5 inches of rain, quarter size hail in Krotz Springs, and wind damage reported near the Arnaudville area. The mesoconvective complex intensified as it moved farther to the east with up to baseball size reported west of Baton Rouge near Erwinville. Widespread reports of wind and possible tornado damage are beginning to roll in from near Baton Rouge into Livingston Parish. Although a Tornado Watch is still in effect for Acadiana through 900pm, it appears that with the loss of the daytime heating and the bulk of the heaviest weather well to the east, that our risk of severe weather has diminished for the night. Another round of hefty storms remains in the forecast for tomorrow with the slight risk of severe weather and certainly a risk of more heavy downpours in the offing. Drier weather is expected to move in during the day on Friday with a few morning showers and lingering cloud cover likely. The weekend is still looking good with sunny and warm conditions combined with lower humidity and highs in the mid-80s. It will heat up next week with daytime highs nearing 90 again. Rain chances could return for mid-late next week. Stay tuned for the latest tonight on Acadiana’s NewsChannel at 10pm.

It’s going to get quite humid and stay rather unsettled over the next few days with scattered showers and storms expected tomorrow with the threat of more widespread activity and some heavy rains possible Thursday. Although the larger scale models have been backing off on the intensity of this mid-week weather event, there will still be ample opportunity for some strong storms and the development of a meso-convective complex that could be capable of producing very heavy rains. Our in-house computer forecasts (that are available on our weather page) is quite sensitive to convective parameters has been quite aggressive with the activity over the next couple of days. So will take a queue from our model and expect a period of active thunderstorms at some point. It is unclear on where and when the heaviest precipitation will fall but I would expect that most of us will catch a couple inches of rain on between Wednesday and Thursday. And as I said yesterday, I wouldn’t surprised that there may be some heavy rain bulls eyes from training storms. Activity should be scattered in nature Wednesday with highest rain chances across the central and northern part of the state. That area will likely drift southward for Thursday, thus we’ll go with the highest rain chances for that day. Hopefully we’ll get the rain we need and not too much, and not too strong. The Storm Prediction Center has us hatched in for the slight risk of severe storms tomorrow into Thursday so keep tabs on Power Doppler 3000 and on KATC over the next few days. Showers and storms may persist into Thursday night/early Friday morning but drier more stable air should be working its way into Acadiana Friday afternoon setting up for a sunny and warm weekend. A quick sidebar: if you track the long range models an interesting change in the pattern seems to occur with a building Bermuda Ridge of high pressure in 10-14 days allowing for the possibility of more active tropical wave activity in the Northwestern Caribbean…this pattern change would be right on time for the beginning of tropical season.

Changes will be underway for our Tuesday with increasing southeasterly winds, higher humidity, more clouds and the slight chance of an afternoon shower possible. A slow moving storm system will push a frontal trough in our direction for Wednesday and Thursday allowing for scattered showers and thunderstorms and the threat of severe weather. The threat of heavy storms will stay in the forecast Thursday with the Storm Prediction Center indicating there will be a risk of severe storms for both Wednesday and Thursday. We’ll probably segue from the threat severe weather the potential of very heavy rainfall, especially for Thursday. I wouldn’t be surprised if there will be a 3-5” or more rainfall event locally in some spots of Acadiana. This system should begin to clear the region for Friday with the weekend setting up as a partly cloudy and warm one with highs in the mid-upper 80s. Stay tuned for active weather mid-week…

Big 7.9 magnitude earthquake in Central China…“CHONGQING, China (AP) — One of the worst earthquakes in decades struck central China on Monday, killing nearly 9,000 people, trapping about 900 students under the rubble of their school and causing a toxic chemical leak, state media reported.” You can view the latest data from anywhere in the world through the USGS plus you can download the latest info for your Google Earth at: USGS Earthquake Information for Google Earth.

The situation in Myanmar appears to be going bad to worse as aid has been slow to reach the more than 1 million homeless. The death toll while impossible to access at this point is expected to continue to rise and ultimately pass 100,000. If you want to see some of the latest data in your Google Earth check out this Myanmar Cyclone Data Page.

Our very warm weather will continue into the weekend but a change will arrive Sunday morning in the form of a weak frontal trough. Saturday will bring mostly sunny skies after some morning clouds with highs suppressed to 90 degrees or less by the relatively cooler Gulf of Mexico and SSW winds. Like our Friday, farther inland highs in the lower-mid 90s will be possible across Central Louisiana. The aforementioned frontal trough will likely spark scattered showers and storms across the northern part of the state Saturday with remnant system dropping into Acadiana for Sunday morning. Therefore a few showers perhaps an isolated storm will be possible first thing Sunday morning, but it appears we’ll see mostly sunny skies for Sunday afternoon with lower humidity and a nice northerly breeze. Monday still looks quite nice with clouds and a few showers possibly returning by Tuesday. The long range models have been fairly persistent with a potent pressure system and cool front approaching for Wednesday. This will probably bring a good chance of storms with severe weather also a possibility. Have a great weekend…and don’t forget the sun block!