KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Showers moved through today spoiling early afternoon plans but was out of the area by the evening. This rain was produced by a front originating in the Pacific which brings milder air behind the front compared to a Canadian front. High pressure has moved in and will bring very pleasant weather for the weekend. The return flow sets up Sunday allowing for temperatures to warm quickly. The pattern continues with dry weather through the week with rain again next Friday.

A very interesting event early this morning across the midwest, a 5.2 magnitude earthquake! It was felt from Illinois to Kentucky. My mother in Louisville felt the quake at about 5:30 in the morning and she said it lasted about 30 seconds. The last quake in Louisville was in the late 60s so as you could imagine, many people were had no idea what was happening. There were no injuries reported with some structural damage to a building downtown. You can find out more information on the USGS website at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are becoming a better bet for our Friday as the latest suite of computer models are indicating that wind dynamics will be robust enough for pretty good rain coverage across Acadiana and strong enough for healthy storms.  The Storm Prediction Center does have us hatched in for a slight risk of severe storms, with a pretty good chance that some sort of meso-convective complex could form in Louisiana into Mississippi especially during the afternoon hours.  Almost per usual, the best chances for nasty storms should be from Central Louisiana on northeastward.  If severe weather does materialize, the main mode should be in the form of damaging winds, but an isolated tornado would not be out of the question.  There may be the possibility of a severe weather watch area to be issued for portions of the Acadiana anytime from mid-late morning through the early evening hours.   At this time, it appears that the bulk of the storms should exit to the east by sunset, with nice and dry air to follow for the weekend.  Expect lots of sunshine Saturday and Sunday with highs in the mid-upper 70s Saturday, after a chilly start Saturday morning, and reaching into the lower 80s for Sunday afternoon.  Much of next week looks warm and humid with highs planted well into the mid-80s.  Isolated showers may be possible, but rain chances will stay below 20% through Wednesday.  A weakening frontal boundary late next week may spark shower and some thunderstorms by Friday and/or into the following weekend.   

Our moderating trend will continue through Friday as the return flow out of the Gulf will usher in partly to at times mostly cloudy skies through the end of the week.  Temperatures tonight will stay in the 50s and should rise into the upper 70s tomorrow afternoon.  Clouds will increase by tomorrow morning but should thin to partly cloudy conditions for the afternoon.  Breezy SSE winds will continue for Thursday with gusts 20-25mph likely for the afternoon hours.  A Pacific front will approach the area Friday and it should spark off scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.  Right now it appears any severe weather threat should stay well to our north, but there may be a few healthy storms lurking Friday afternoon.   This weekend will bring fair to partly cloudy skies back into the region with highs in the upper 70s Saturday and low-mid 80s Sunday.  Next week will be quite warm with highs reaching the mid-upper 80s.  There may be a few isolated showers next week with better rain chances possibly developing for next Thursday and Friday.

As expected we broke record lows this morning with 37 degrees reported in Lafayette and 39 in New Iberia.  Tonight will be chilly again with morning lows dropping into the lower to mid 40s.  A nice warm up is expected for tomorrow with breezy S/SE winds kicking in tomorrow afternoon along with a few clouds advecting in from the Gulf.  It will become partly cloudy and stay breezy for Thursday while a weak frontal boundary may trigger scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms for Friday.  This front will be of Pacific origin with not much if any cooling behind it.  In fact, this weekend will be fair to partly cloudy and seasonably warm with highs near 80 Saturday and the low-mid 80s for Sunday.  It appears that significant weather-makers will be hard to come by for the rest of the month, and while there may be a few showers possible next week, it looks rather dry as we head toward May.  Next week will start to feel more like summer with highs reaching well into the mid-80s accompanied by higher humidity and partly cloudy skies.

With crystal clear skies again this evening we’ll have a good view of the International Space Station at about 8:25pm this evening.  The ISS will appear in the west and should be visible for about 3 minutes departing to the SSE’rn sky.

Record breaking or near record breaking lows will be possible tonight as a chilly ridge of high pressure settles into Acadiana.  The record for tomorrow morning in Lafayette is 39 set in 1933 while the record for New Iberia is 41 set in 1950.  If the winds die down enough tonight we’ll have an excellent shot at the mid-upper 30s…so a few records may indeed fall.  There may be a few patches of light frost tomorrow morning, especially along and north of the I-10 corridor.  So you may want to cover the tomato plants and any other tender vegetation, just in case.  Expect a nice warm-up after tomorrow morning with highs reaching the mid-upper 60s dropping only into the low-mid 40s tomorrow night as the return flow out of the Gulf of Mexico commences.  It will be mostly sunny and warmer Wednesday with highs reaching back into the mid-70s.  A weak front should bring the chance of scattered showers and a few storms on Friday with the weekend bringing fair to partly cloudy and seasonably warm conditions.

With crystal clear skies we’ll have a good view of the International Space Station at 8:01pm this evening.  The very bright object (like a very bright star) will be streaking across Acadiana’s skies appearing in the NNW’rn sky at 8:01pm and departing to the ESE at 8:06pm.   I often get asked why can we only see this object in the early evenings or early mornings?  Basically we can only see it at these times because the craft is relatively close to the earth (about 300 miles).  So in order for us to see it the ISS must be illuminated by the sun which gives us about 90 minutes or so after sunset or before sunrise.  The viewing times are dictated by the trajectory of the craft and when it emerges from the earth’s shadow and then falls back behind the earth’s shadow. 

Our weather is on cruise control!  We will be quite cool over the next few nights with near record-breaking lows possible.  I think most of our spring plantings should be ok, but you may want to cover the tomato plants for Monday night just in case as our overnight lows will flirt with the upper 30s, especially along and north of the I-10 corridor.

Here’s the NWS Storm Survey from Friday’s EF0 (65-85mph) tornado in Evangeline and St Landry Parish:

US-190 Supercell of April 11, 2008

Webpage by:
 Donovan Landreneau, Meteorologist Forecaster Survey conducted by:
Roger Erickson, Warning Coordination Meteorologist
Donovan Landreneau, Meteorologist Forecaster
Erin Snavely, Meteorologist Intern
 

On Friday afternoon of April 11, 2008, a lone thunderstorm developed along an advancing cold front just north of Lake Charles near Gillis, LA. As the thunderstorm moved east following the frontal boundary and basically US-190, the thunderstorm split into 2 separate storms upon entering extreme southern Jeff Davis parish across Southwest Louisiana. The northern storm eventually dissipated, while the southern storm began to move due east, exhibiting characteristics of a right-moving supercell. The strong thunderstorm continued to grow and a severe thunderstorm warning was issued at 3:19 PM CDT. The severe thunderstorm continued on a track just north of US 190 moving almost due east now, and continued to get better organized, with rotation beginning to form within the 0.5 degree elevation velocity (Storm Relative Motion) product. Thus, the severe thunderstorm warning was upgraded to a tornado warning at 3:45 PM CDT. The severe thunderstorm resulted in a couple of EF0 tornadoes across southern Evangeline, western and central St. Landry parishes, along with straight line wind damage.

Map of tornado tracks across Acadiana. Click on image for higher resolution.

WSR-88D reflectivity radar image from NWS Lake Charles. Click here for animation.

Storm survey photos coming soon.

An isolated severe thunderstorm produced wind damage and isolated tornado across extreme southeastern Evangeline and Central St Landry Parishes between 3:30pm and 4:15pm this afternoon.  NWS Storm Reports included wind gusts of 80mph and a tornado with damage reports coming in from Chataignier, Nuba (just north of Opelousas) and near Washington with golfball size hail also causing considerable damage to windshields.  At press time we are still gathering the details of the damage, but as of 5:45pm we have had no reports of injuries…stay with KATC for further updates on our later newscasts.  Photo courtesy of David Durham near Evangeline Downs…

Titan Imagery at 3:40pm…

A big severe weather outbreak is beginning across tornado alley as a strong upper level and surface low pressure system will likely produce long-lived, long-tracked tornadoes and very large hail from Texas through Oklahoma and Arkansas through Thursday evening.  The Storm Prediction Center has a large area for a moderate risk of severe weather for our neighbors to our north while we may see a few healthy storms with Acadiana under a slight risk if storms initiate close to home.  It appears that the best dynamics for stronger storms may arrive tomorrow night into Friday, but the loss of daytime heating tomorrow night should help to keep the storms in check plus the strongest upper level dynamics should be well to our north.  Nonetheless we’ll keep an eye on things through Friday.  The biggest change for us will be strong southerly winds that will likely be in the 20-30mph range Thursday with gusts to 35mph or higher.  Scattered showers and storms will be possible tomorrow with higher rain chances as you go farther to the north.  Scattered activity will be possible through tomorrow night with best rain chances reserved for Friday as the tail end of this weather system ushers a cold front toward the region.  Drier and slightly cooler weather will move in for Saturday with lingering morning clouds clearing out during the afternoon.  A stronger surge of significantly cooler air will move into the region Sunday with highs dropping to near 70 Sunday afternoon.  Overnight lows will drop into the lower 40s Sunday night with nice and cool conditions likely though at least Tuesday.

 Philip Klotzbach and Dr. Gray issued their 2008 Hurricane Forecast today…they’re expecting another busy season.  The forecast specifically calls for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major storms (the normals are 10, 6 and 2). The Colorado State team took a lot of heat last year for over-forecasting the 2007 season, but they didn’t not miss by much from a scientific stand-point; there were two block-buster Cat. 5 storms in the Caribbean, but they hit in sparsely populated areas thank goodness.  Total activity in the Atlantic Basin was somewhat suppressed but it was still busier than the long-term 30 to 40 year average. There have been many other “forecast groups” that got into the hurricane forecasting arena after the 2005 season, with outfits like Accu-Weather calling for major East Coast “hits” in successive years, with many “authors” tying in global warming into their routine.  But the only folks I heard getting the heat were the most famous, and in my opinion, one of the most accurate folks that do this thing for a living with no hidden agendas.  The Colorado State team in their paper describe that the major indicators are very strong on a very busy season, but there is too much uncertainty at this time as to whether an El Nino will form this summer/fall.  So if anything, the numbers may go up by June if there is no signal for an El Nino at that time.  The paper also describes an above average threat of major storms in the Caribbean and that odds are that the US will see at least one major strike.  The bottom line is that every hurricane season we need to be prepared for a storm, most seasons we miss, but when we see a hurricane in Acadiana, it’s a darn busy year!

It will stay nice and mild tonight with patchy fog and some low clouds redeveloping by morning.  Tomorrow should bring similar weather as compared with our Tuesday, with mostly cloudy skies in the morning, a slight chance of a few midday and afternoon showers, with breezy and warm conditions and highs in the mid-80s. Southeast winds will freshen and stay quiet breezy for Wednesday and Thursday with afternoon gusts to 20-25mph likely.  Rain chances should stay near 20% or less through Thursday but the prospects for storms will likely increase by Friday as another moderate cool front approaches.  The Storm Prediction Center does have us hatched in for a slight risk of severe weather for Thursday afternoon into Friday, but it looks like the bulk of the severe weather threat should stay to our north.  Nonetheless there may be a few strong storms lurking in the region late Thursday with much higher rain chances and at least very healthy storms with heavy downpours expected for Friday.  The weekend is looking fantastic with sunny and pleasant conditions.  Highs this weekend will drop into the low-mid 70s while overnight lows drop into the upper 40s.  It looks like the nice weather may stay with us for a good part of next week too!

We’re already beginning to gear up for the 2008 Hurricane Season.  Kari is on her way to the Bahamas Weather Conference.  Look for satellite reports from Kari later this week.  In addition, check out National Hurricane Center Virtual Tour, it’s a neat way to see the office we talk about quite often during the hurricane season.  Also, I wanted to let our viewers know that each year Donovan Landrenieu at the National Weather Service puts together a nice DVD set of the previous year’s tropical satellite and radar imagery.  Check out Satellite and Radar Imagery Movies of Atlantic Hurricane Seasons on DVD.   Donovan does a great job with these DVDs and it’s nice to have a record of previous years and utilize this data for historical study.   He also has some outstanding movies of the big 2005 hurricanes on the 2005 DVD.  Check it out.   

Sunny skies and warm temperatures got the work-week off to a great start. But with clear skies and  humidity, fog will re-develop overnight and may cause problems for early morning drives to work or school Tuesday. Tuesday afternoon the winds are expected to pick up with a few clouds moving in. Still no worries about rain but Wednesday the atmosphere becomes slightly more unstable as a result of warm air near the surface and pockets of slightly cooler air aloft. Rain chances stay minimal up until early Friday when a cold front moves through.

Tuesday I will be leaving for the Bahamas to attend the 2008 Hurricane Conference. Meteorologists from around the country will be there to discuss the upcoming hurricane season forecast, emergency preparedness, insurance, past hurricanes, climate change and lots more.  You can catch interviews from the conference Thursday and Friday as I talk to Meteorologists about the issues that affect us most in Acadiana.

Have a great week!