KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

We are still on track for breezy and dry conditions for our Thursday with more clouds across the region as the atmosphere gradually humidifies.  Gusty southerly winds will remain near 15-25mph for Thursday and Friday with higher gusts more likely for midday Friday.  More clouds a few scattered showers should develop Friday afternoon ahead of a weakening cool front that will arrive in the area either Friday night or early Saturday.  As I alluded to yesterday lingering showers, in fact perhaps our best rain chances will arrive Friday night into early Saturday.  The Storm Prediction Center is keeping the main severe weather threat well to our north, but we could see a few healthy storms through mid-afternoon Saturday.  The front should wash out across the region late Saturday evening with slightly cooler and drier air moving in for Sunday.  So it looks pretty good for the Breaux Bridge Crawfish Festival other than the threat of scattered showers and a few storms Saturday.  It looks nice through early next week with rain chances possibly developing for mid-next week.

Our great weather will continue for the next couple of days but change is on the way for Friday and possibly the weekend.  The return flow will commence out of the Gulf for our Wednesday allowing for breezy late morning and afternoon winds and just a few clouds late in the day.  Partly cloudy, breezy and warmer conditions are anticipated for Thursday with scattered showers and storms possible Friday as a weakening cool front approaches.  We could see some pretty healthy storms Friday, but mainly slow movers producing heavy downpours…and some of us could really use the moisture.  Any severe weather threat should stay well to our north…more on this front tomorrow.  I have hedged our bets this weekend with the possibility of lingering showers with the left-over frontal boundary Saturday but it should be dry on Sunday.  Typical May weather is expected next week with another frontal boundary providing for better rain chances by mid-next week.

Of course after a so-so weekend the weather has improved nicely and it looks great through midweek.  A return flow from the Gulf will commence Wednesday afternoon ushering higher humidity and milder overnight lows toward the end of the week.  Daytime highs will be in the upper 70s to near 80 tomorrow and Wednesday but should push well into the mid-80s late this week into the weekend.  A series of disturbances and a weakening frontal boundary over Southern Louisiana should make for some unsettled weather Friday through weekend.  Eventually there will be a pretty good chance of slow-moving storms developing for early next week.  We do need the rain as most of us have been at or below normal rainfall for the month of April with greater deficits in Acadiana along and south of the I-10 corridor per the NWS Precipitation Analysis.  We may be heading for a mild drought unless we get good rains this weekend and early next week.  The upper pattern does look active enough through the one to two week period into May so there should be some active shower and thunderstorm days ahead.  

Short on time tonight as I will be on remote at Festival International!  It looks like we may see a few light showers this evening but rain chance should stay less than 20% but will probably increase to about 30% after midnight.  I went with a 40% chance of scattered showers and a few storms tomorrow due to a weakening frontal boundary that will become stationary across the area during the day, but will advance back to the north by tomorrow evening.  It should be relatively quiet tomorrow evening/night but a good chance of showers and storms is still expected Sunday with the strong cold front that will arrive late Sunday afternoon or evening.  It looks like our severe potential will be marginal at best this weekend but a few healthy storms may be possible tomorrow and/or Sunday.  Have a good weekend!

We’re seeing a nice start to Festival International with fair skies and comfortable temperatures and humidity. We should see more of the same tomorrow with just a slight chance of an isolated shower. A couple of fronts will head for Acadiana this weekend with the first one arriving very early Saturday morning. Scattered showers will be possible with the front with best rain chances near or before daybreak Saturday morning. The front will become stationary over our area and should begin to move back to the north for Saturday afternoon providing a possible focusing mechanism for scattered late afternoon/early evening showers and a few storms. A strong cool front will approach for Sunday afternoon and will more than likely produce a squall line with showers and strong storms possible during the afternoon into the evening hours. There may be a severe weather threat late Sunday so stayed tuned for more on that. Cooler and drier weather will move in for early next week with lows possibly dropping into the upper 40s early next week. Highs will moderate from the 70s Monday and Tuesday into the low-mid 80s with higher humidity later next week.

Sure enough showers and heavy thunderstorms fired up along the left-over boundary from last night’s convection. Storms weren’t nearly as active as they were last night, but they did manage to produce torrential downpours, gusty winds and some small hail. Check out the video that Nick Simoneaux (Nick-Simoneaux-Rayne Video) shot just south of Rayne as the storms lumbered through the area. Tomorrow and Friday should bring us lower rain chances with partly to at times mostly cloudy skies. Computer models are starting to get more aggressive with the rain chances this weekend and it does appear that there will be a better chance of scattered showers and storms Saturday and a fairly good chance of strong, perhaps severe storms with a cold front by Sunday. Hopefully most of Festival International will be okay, but this weekend will not be anything like the last three that we have enjoyed.

A very interesting weather scenario going early this morning as storms that were well to the north and east of Acadiana late Tuesday evening stopped moving eastward, began backbuilding and developing northwestward through midnight, then dropped southward through 130am.  As I’m tapping this entry out, the storms although weakening, are now drifting to the southeast…a complete counterclockwise 360!  Wind gusts in excess of 60mph were reported in Rapides Parish around 10:15pm while farther northwest, golfball size hail was reported in northern Vernon Parish.  In Acadiana, we had a warning out for Allen Parish through 115am…hopefully the storms continue to slowly weaken through the early morning hours…we’ll be watching them either way.

Our warm and humid weather will persist into the weekend with a few widely scattered showers or an afternoon thunderstorm possible through Thursday.  Rain chances will increase Friday into the weekend as disturbances aloft will help to destabilize the atmosphere but chance of getting wet should be a workable 30% for Friday and Saturday.  A vigorous front will likely engender a very good chance of thunderstorms by late Sunday or Sunday night.  Right now Festival International is looking pretty good but there will be a few showers to deal with through Saturday with hopefully the heavier storms holding off until after the festivities Sunday.  We could see a severe weather threat with the frontal system late Sunday…more on that in the days to come.  The Atchafalaya at Morgan City and Butte LaRose has crested near 7.5ft and 19.9ft respectively.  Boaters will need to continue to be very mindful of their wake for several more weeks.  Other than some local property erosion, no major issues are expected at this time.

Acadiana’s Earth Day will be a warm and humid one.  The weather pattern has transitioned to more of a summer-like scenario with a few daytime showers or thundershowers possible every day for the rest of the week into the weekend.  With little or no focusing mechanism for precipitation, activity should stay widely scattered in nature with some subtle day to day differences.  The models are split on what will happen as we get closer to the weekend with current thinking that we will eventually see more destabilization aloft with upper disturbances and an encroaching surface boundary.  For now we’ll just call it warm and humid with scattered showers and a few storms through early next week, but will lean on slightly higher rain chances for this Saturday and next Monday.  All in all it does not look like any particular day will be a wash-out for Festival International, but there may be a few hours of wetness wedged in between all the fun.  Check out the Earth Day government link…there’s lots of good information here.  Although we have day Earth Days on the calendar since 1970, the latest political and social climate is finally giving this day the attention it deserves.  Hopefully we will all continue to appreciate the good things are planet has offered us and that we can pass it on for generations to come.  

Rob was nice enough to allow me to go to the Bahamas Weather Conference this year in his place and the experience was excellent. For the twelth year in a row, meteorologists discussed the upcoming hurricane season and lessons learned from the past. You may ask, why the Bahamas??? Well, it started with the ministry of tourism wanting to educate American meteorologists about their geography. We greatly impact whether or not people vacation there and if we say there is a hurricane headed toward the Bahamas, people may cancel their plans to visit there. They wanted us to know that there are over 700 islands of the Bahamas and we should specify which part may be impacted by an approaching hurricane. Tourism accounts for most of their economy and if we are not informed of their geography, we decrease their tourism. I really learned a lot about the Bahamas and got a chance to meet some very interesting people.

The main topics up for discussion were the upcoming hurricane season and how to present the forecast to the public, the possibility of a hurricane hitting New York City, building codes, hurricane computer models, and of course global warming and it’s potential impacts on hurricanes. You can even watch videos which summarize the conference on their website. http://www.bahamaswxconference.com/