KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Our weather is on cruise control so I wanted to share this article with our viewers based on a paper by Chris Landsea.  Confirming some of the observations I have made over the last 20 years and on this blog since our 2005 hurricanes.

 *** NEWS FROM NOAA ***
NATIONAL OCEANIC & ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
WASHINGTON, DCContact: Dennis Feltgen, NOAA 305-229-4404

        The team concludes that potential damage from storms – currently about $10 billion yearly
- is growing at a rate that may place severe burdens on exposed communities, and that avoiding
huge losses will require a change in the rate of population growth in coastal areas, major improvements in construction standards, or other mitigation actions. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and information service
delivery for transportation, and by providing environmental stewardship of our nation’s coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners, more than 70 countries and the European Commission to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.On the Web:
NOAA National Hurricane Center: http://www.hurricanes.gov
Link to paper:
http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/resource-2476-2008.02.pdf 

Enjoy our weather and make sure to check back here tomorrow…some nice surprises possible this week!

The weather has been very kind to us this weekend and just in time for Easter a dry cold front will move through. Sunday we can expect highs about 10 degrees cooler in the afternoon reaching 67. It will be cloudy and breezy but still pleasant for outdoor activities. Through the work-week, high pressure will settle in once again and we will start off cool with highs in the mid 60s then warm to 80 by Thursday. There will only be slight rain chances starting on Wednesday as a weak front moves through.

All the wet conditions to our north may have an impact on our area a few weeks down the road.  NOAA’s Precipitation Analysis Page shows a large swath of 10-15” of rainfall over the last week across portions of the Midwest with that nasty weather system we saw Tuesday and Tuesday night.  This combined with a larger than normal snow pack across the region through the Northeast will likely produce more flooding in those regions as we head into the warmer weeks ahead.  The National Hydrologic Assessment indicates that we may take part in an elevated risk of flooding conditions in the Lower Mississippi River Valley which could mean a significant water rise coming down the Mississippi River and ultimately the Atchafalaya River.  Something we’ll continue to report on and monitor in the days and weeks ahead.  In the near term, the weather looks very nice into the weekend with slight cooling and some high cloudiness for Easter Sunday.  A few showers will be possible Sunday night with a surge of cooler air.  But other than that system, a benign pattern is anticipated through much of next week with initially cool conditions early next week with 80s returning by the end of next week.

The storms last night intensified over the area between 1130pm through about 130am producing more wind gusts over 50mph…When it came through Lafayette I would estimate that we had a gusts here at the station near 65mph…the sound our building made brought a flash-back to Hurricane Rita!  Plenty of minor wind damage from that storm was reported from Lafayette Parish through Iberia Parish into Upper St Martin Parish.  The National Weather Service hasn’t confirmed any significant damage from the strong cell that prompted tornado warnings for St Landry and Avoyelles Parishes last night, but the NWS in Slidell confirmed an F1 tornado in Marrero, in Jefferson Parish, where 13 homes were damaged and a car was crushed by fallen trees.  One injury was reported from a falling part of a rafter.  The worst weather in Acadiana was actually with the strong southerly daytime winds prior to the storms last night.  As expected, the winds gusted to 45mph across the entire region, with peak gusts reported in the 55mph range.  The NWS in Lake Charles has a nice summary of our recent wind event.  Fortunately we had no reports of injuries with all the trees that fell and debris that got strewn around.  From a large picture stand-point, it was one of Mother Nature’s ways of pruning our trees before tropical season and it was a reminder on what’s aerodynamic around our homes and what’s not…or can generate lift, like this trampoline courtesy of Nelda Fisher in Opelousas.  Over the years I wish I had a dollar for every flying trampoline that has been reported in Acadiana, they become Frisbees if they’re not properly secured into the ground.  The weather pattern should stay nice and quiet through Saturday with a weak front cooling us a little for Saturday night and Easter Sunday.  We may see a fair bit of cloudiness for Sunday afternoon with the risk of some showers developing by Sunday night into very early Monday morning.  Early next week looks quite chilly and dry with warmer more spring-like temperatures later this week.  Incidentally we will cross the Vernal Equinox tomorrow morning (late tonight) at 12:48 am…meaning spring will officially be here!      

Late evening (1130pm) update…storms are beginning to pick-up in their intensity as the upper wind dynamics are beginning to interact with deeper moisture.  Current indicators would point to the storms that are intensifying right now over us will probably become tornadic, or at the very least produce damaging winds, hopefully out of our area.  We’ll be watching closely over the next few hours…stay with KATC for live cut-ins until the threat diminishes…which looks to be up until 2 to 3am…Rob  

Not surprisingly the high winds this afternoon brought numerous reports of downed trees on homes, cars and power lines with sporadic power outages across all of Acadiana.  A few fires were also initiated by the down power lines.  Wind gusts to 55mph were quite common this afternoon with sustained winds staying in the 20-25mph range.  As the sun warmed us up during the day, we did indeed start to tap into the lower level jet that was near 60mph.  As the sun goes down, the wind gusts should abate somewhat, but at the same time wind dynamics will be increasing.  The High Wind Warning will probably be dropped by the National Weather Service after 700pm.  In fact the lower level jet will increase to about 75mph, while the veering mid-level jet (near 18,000ft) will increase to near 100mph.  The jet stream should also increase to about 150mph.  These veering wind dynamics will help to support an intense squall line that will rip through our area between 900pm and 200am.  The primary severe weather threat will be damaging winds, but isolated tornadoes may also occur.  As expected the Storm Prediction Center upgraded us to a moderate risk of severe weather for this evening.  There is usually just a few times this happens in a year for Acadiana so be “weather aware” tonight.  Keep it tuned to KATC for the latest as I will likely be cutting-in during our normal programming until the threat diminishes.

Running on our air right now…stay with our on-air broadcasts through this evening…stay safe…Rob 

From Rob Perillo in the StormTeam3 Weather Lab…A HIGH WIND WARNING remains for most of Acadiana.  Wind gusts up to 50mph have produced sporadic power outages and knocked several trees down across the area…High wind gusts up to 60mph will likely continue through the early evening hours…In addition, the threat of severe weather will increase late this afternoon and evening hours with an intense squall line crossing the region after dark…Storms containing damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible…Stay with KATC for additional severe weather information and Power Doppler 3000 Displays, or go to www.katc.com… 

Very windy conditions along with the threat of severe weather are in the forecast for Acadiana through late tomorrow night.   A strong storm system that allowed for wind gusts up to 40 mph this afternoon will bring more of the same tonight through tomorrow afternoon.  Wind gusts will abate a little tonight, but they will increase dramatically after 900am tomorrow as daytime heating and any breaks in the clouds allow for the strengthening lower level jet (which will be near 75 mph tomorrow afternoon at 5,000ft) to gust closer to the ground.  Expect S/SE sustained winds near 20-35mph with peak gusts likely reaching 45mph.  So it will feel like a tropical storm once again Tuesday, and if remember back a few weeks ago we had a number of trees that fell with these type of wind gusts so be on the look out and secure the lawn furniture, trash bins and hanging plants.  The fireworks will commence tomorrow afternoon and evening with a strong squall line likely crossing Acadiana between 600pm and midnight.  The wind shear profiles will be conducive to storms that could produce very strong downburst winds and more than likely isolated tornadoes.  The Storm Prediction Center does have us hatched for a slight risk for severe weather for tomorrow with a moderate outlook in Southeast Texas, but I think we will likely be closer to a moderate risk as well late tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours.   I would be willing to bet much of Acadiana will be in a tornado watch for tomorrow afternoon and evening.  The severe weather threat should diminish quickly after midnight with decreasing clouds and cooler weather anticipated for Wednesday.  The weather pattern should stay quiet for the rest of the week into most of the weekend, but there could be a few isolated showers around and about for Easter Sunday.  Look out for the weather tomorrow and tomorrow evening and keep it tuned to KATC for the very latest… 

Lake Charles, Lafayette, and New Iberia all broke their records for the high temperature Saturday as warm dry air brought unseasonably warm temperatures. Lake Charles was the warmest with a high of 90 which was 7 degrees above their old record and 18 degrees above normal! Good thing a cold front moved through late Saturday to bring relief just in time for Sunday. Temperatures will begin to warm up again Monday but big changes on the way Tuesday. It looks like we will have enough upper level support, moisture, and winds to produce severe weather especially Tuesday evening. This cold front will be much stronger with the dynamics to go with it. The Storm Prediction Center has us hatched in for a possible organized severe weather event.

A major severe weather outbreak Saturday for Georgia and other parts of the Southeast. Friday night a tornado touched down on the Georgia dome during an SEC tournament game. It’s rare that weather disrupts a basketball game  but they had to stop the game and clean up debris that was scattered inside from the roof blowing off! My Mississippi State Bulldogs still pulled off the win even with all of the distractions. Too bad they lost in the next round.

As of news time there were 30 reports of tornadoes, mostly in Georgia and South Carolina, with 246 total reports of severe weather! Hopefully this system will wind down quickly and not cause more damage.

The Storm Prediction Center does have us hatched for a slight risk for severe weather tonight, but it looks like the greatest risk of nasty storms will either stay well to the north of Acadiana or out in the Gulf of Mexico.  Nonetheless, plan on at least a few quick-moving showers and a few storms overnight tonight with the best chances of getting wet expected from 1100pm through about 300am.  Tomorrow will likely bring much warmer conditions with partly sunny skies expected after some left-over early morning cloudiness.  Temperatures should reach into the lower 80s for our Friday courtesy of breezy southwest winds and we could push into the mid-80s Saturday with a west to northwest wind developing as a weak cool front pushes through.  Rain chances should stay very slight tomorrow and Saturday with lower humidity and sunny skies expected behind the front Sunday.  Interestingly enough the lower level jet on Saturday will be quite strong from a westerly component (near 65mph) so we could be setting up for almost “chinook” like desert winds or at least wind gusts Saturday.  The next weather-maker is still scheduled for about Tuesday of next week…today’s computer model runs have slowed a bit but there will likely be the threat of heavy rains and severe weather developing by Tuesday.