KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

The weather pattern is going to get active again as a series of disturbances in the sub-tropical jet stream will interact with a surface frontal boundary allowing for increased cloudiness through tomorrow and scattered showers by tomorrow afternoon.  Jet dynamics will become quite favorable for thunderstorm activity by Thursday likely continuing into Friday.  Locally heavy rainfall and some strong storms will be possible.  There may be a slight risk of severe storms both Thursday and perhaps again Thursday night into Friday.  The weather should calm down for the most part this weekend, but another weather-maker will approach late Monday with the risk of nasty storms followed by a brief shot of arctic air by Tuesday night.  So fasten your seatbelts and keep it tuned to KATC for further developments. 

We had a nice treat last night as the Space Shuttle Atlantis was leading the International Space Station across the skies yesterday evening.  Tonight we may get to see both at 6:43pm (the shuttle first) and then at 6:44pm the space station will follow in the southwestern to southern sky.  Look about 20 degrees above the horizon.  That’s if the high level cirrus clouds permit the viewing.  The shuttle will land tomorrow morning but the landing ground tracks will not be over the area.  Meanwhile I’m expecting plenty of cloud cover and some showers for the lunar eclipse tomorrow night.   More on the weather changes coming in my next entry later this evening.

Our week is starting off nice and quiet, but as it normally goes around here it will change by the end of the week.  Expect sunny skies for you Tuesday with highs starting in the chilly upper 30s rising into the mid-upper 60s for the afternoon.  Clouds will be increasing Wednesday with a few disturbances aloft in the sub-tropical jet stream allowing for scattered showers by the afternoon.  The jet gets busier Thursday with scattered showers and thunderstorms becoming more likely.  Another potent disturbance will get here by Friday producing thunderstorms with another round of severe weather possible.  More on the next weather-maker tomorrow.   The weekend looks good with mostly sunny and seasonable conditions.  Yet another strong storm system will be possible early next week.  If you’re looking to track the International Space Station we’ll have a good shot at seeing it tonight (overhead at 6:19-6:23pm) and tomorrow night in spite of nearly a full moon.   The landing ground tracks for the shuttle have not been posted yet but it will be landing Wednesday morning.  We’ll talk more about that tomorrow if the ground tracks are close enough for us to hear the sonic boom. 

Here’s a summary of the severe weather reports from last night and today.  It certainly could have been worse.  It looks like we could have another shot at severe weather later this week so enjoy the quiet conditions over the next couple of days.  Rob

As expected severe weather rolled through Saturday night into Sunday morning. Widespread reports of wind damage as well a small hail came in as the squall line raced across Acadiana. In Texas the storms were just getting going and by the time they made it here they were quite organized warranting the issuance if tornado watches and severe thunderstorm warnings for just about every parish in our area. The quick moving squall only produced about a half of an inch of rain but there was very frequent lightning, winds over 60 mph, and penny sized hail. Power outages were a major problem as trees knocked down powerlines in Eunice and Ville Platte. There were two tornado reports with this system in St. Helena and Tangipahoa parishes according to inital storm reports but there may be more when the damage is assessed. Thankfully, with all of the damage there were no injuries. The picture shown came from some viewers in Cow Island who had damage to their deck and pool.

 It’s been a different story for states off to our east Sunday afternoon. Over 20 tornadoes have been reported to the Storm Prediction Center late in the afternoon and it’s possible more will develop Sunday night. Now that the front has moved east we can get ready for the cooler temperatures to settle in for at least a few days before the next weather maker develops and moves through on Wednesday. So until then enjoy the sunny skies.

A nasty weather system is beginning to take shape across the SW US into Texas as a strong winter storm will likely produce very heavy rains and severe weather across the Lone Star State tomorrow.  There will be a moderate risk of severe weather across much of Central and Southeast Texas tomorrow possibly spreading into parts of Louisiana tomorrow night.  There will be a significant risk of large hail and damaging winds in Texas tomorrow along the possibility of strong tornadoes.  Although the dynamics may not be as strong across much of Acadiana, favorable wind profiles may overcome the lack of lower level instability.  There will be a low level jet approaching 70 mph tomorrow evening and with a 120 mph westerly jet aloft there will be ample opportunity for wind damaging storms, hail, frequent cloud to ground lightning and torrential downpours.  A couple of inches of rain will be likely.  I would certainly expect a tornado watch to be issued for the area as early as tomorrow afternoon but most likely for tomorrow evening and night.  The nasty weather will end by Sunday morning with mostly sunny and pleasant conditions likely for Sunday afternoon.  Early next week looks cool and dry with moderating temperatures for the mid-latter part of the week.  The next weather/trouble-maker will approach by next Friday.  Keep it tuned to KATC for the latest on our potentially severe weather event this weekend.  

The cut-off upper low in the SW U.S. is looking a little more delayed so we will push off our highest rain chances until Saturday night.  With that being said, they’ll be a slight chance of a few isolated showers Friday with scattered showers and some storms likely by Saturday afternoon.  I’ve lowered the rain chances to 60% (probably scattered unorganized activity) for Saturday, but there will be an intense squall line developing in SE Texas Saturday afternoon.  Strong to possibly severe storms and heavy rains will be likely move through overnight Saturday night into the early morning hours of Sunday.  The severe weather threat has increased for Acadiana as it appears that the surface low will travel just west of our area putting us in the moist unstable sector for late Saturday.  It’s better to have the threat of severe weather at night for us as the marine layer from the Gulf and the lack of heating will be inhibiting factors.  Nonetheless, the wind dynamics will likely be robust enough to produce damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado.  I would be anticipating a tornado watch for at least part of the area as early as Saturday afternoon continuing into the overnight hours.  Also look for a 2-3 inch rainfall, was isolated areas possibly receiving twice that where we see training storms.  The rain and storms will end Sunday morning with some clearing possible late in the day.  Stay with KATC for further updates on this weather event as there may be more changes on how it will pan out this weekend.

Our nice, cool and quiet weather will continue through tomorrow morning with milder temperatures courtesy of breezy southeast winds for tomorrow afternoon.  The next big weather system will begin to induce scattered shower activity by Friday afternoon with rain and storms likely developing Friday night.  Soaking rains and storms will be likely Saturday into Saturday night with colder, lingering rains possible through early Sunday.  Latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts are going with several inches of rain for the area with 2-4 inches a good bet with isolated amounts between late Friday and early Sunday ranging up to 3-5 inches.  Although we’re still not quite sure how things are going to evolve, it looks like the severe weather threat may be confined to offshore or areas just to the east of Acadiana.  Nonetheless, there will be ample dynamics for strong storms and heavy rains with even some hail a possibility especially late Saturday or Saturday night.  If there will be a severe weather risk with this weather system it would probably be Friday evening/night and again possibly Saturday evening and/or night.  Right now I would just plan on soaking rains and the possibility of some run-off/flooding problems…stay tuned…

It was a busy day weather-wise as a strong squall line ripped across the region.  We had dozens of reports of pea to marble size hail area-wide with a few reports of quarter to golf ball size hail.  In addition, a number of reports of wind damage came in, including damaging winds and an isolated tornado near Acadiana Regional Airport in Iberia Parish where damage was reported and there was an injury by a door that was blown in.   As of press time there over 100 reports of severe weather with this system in Louisiana and Mississippi, but fortunately there was no major destruction reported nor any fatalities in Acadiana.  Breezy and much cooler weather will be advancing into the region by morning with sunny and cool conditions likely through Thursday morning.  I expect a nice warm-up for Thursday afternoon with fair to partly cloudy skies.  It will go down hill for the weekend however, with showers and maybe some strong storms developing Friday.  Another disturbance this weekend will likely generate cold rains Saturday night into Sunday.  There may be a severe weather threat on Friday plus rain totals from Friday through Sunday may get into the 3-5 inch range…so this coming weekend will likely be a polar opposite of what we experienced this past weekend. 

Quick changes are on the way as a dynamic cold front will be pushing through the area Tuesday.  Showers and thunderstorms will be likely with a squall line that will rip across Acadiana during the late morning into the early afternoon hours.  The Storm Prediction Center does have us hatched in for the possibility of severe weather with wind-damaging and hail-bearing storms possible.  The activity will be quick-moving but dynamics aloft will allow for some torrential downpours with about an inch of rain expected for most with isolated areas catching about two inches…all coming within about an hour’s time, so there may be some localized street flooding.  Be on the look-out for nasty storms tomorrow and keep it tuned to KATC for the latest.  A shot of winter will return tomorrow night with clearing skies and temperatures dropping into the upper 30s for Wednesday morning.  Wednesday will be sunny and cool while fair to partly cloudy conditions and milder temperatures are anticipated for Thursday.  Rain and storms will be likely again Friday and possibly continuing into Saturday.  It’s not clear how the next storm system will unfold but there will likely be an extended period for the threat of heavy rains while severe weather may also be in the mix.  I went for fairly high rain chances for both Friday and Saturday with clearing and chilly conditions likely to follow later in the weekend into early next week.