KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

We are still on track for a spring-like weekend with warm temperatures likely and a few isolated showers possible.  A weakening frontal boundary in the northern part of the state will sag a little farther to the south tonight before it washes out across northern portions of Acadiana tomorrow.  A few scattered showers may be possible tonight but with the weakening frontal boundary and lighter pressure gradient nearby, we could be setting the stage for some fog to develop later tonight.  This weekend temperatures will stay mild at night and warm in the afternoon with highs in the mid-70s tomorrow and upper 70s to near 80 Sunday.  Strong storms, a squall line, and a significant severe weather threat will develop in the Plains and Texas late Sunday and will head our way Monday.  It appears that there will be an “all-mode” severe weather threat Monday with heavy rainfall, storms containing damaging winds and hail, and a distinct possibility of tornadoes somewhere close to home.  As I have mentioned in previous entries, the marine layer in the Gulf of Mexico, just offshore, is generally a severe weather mitigator in our area.  However, this upcoming event will have more than enough dynamics to overcome that feature and with a good chunk of the polar jet driving this system there will likely be favorable wind shear profiles.  Per the Storm Prediction Center, expect the action to be near the Texas/Louisiana border well after midnight Sunday with a strong squall line pushing through the area Monday.  Ahead of the squall, individual “discrete” cells may develop and become supercells Monday, so at the very least expect Acadiana to be under a tornado watch at just about any time.  After Monday it will briefly chill down again, with the next weather-maker approaching for Thursday.  Keep it tuned to KATC this weekend for the latest on Monday’s expected severe weather.