The forecast map for tomorrow evening looks awfully similar to Wednesday’s features with another low developing in the Gulf sending a shield of rain our way for tomorrow evening. The track of this low should be a little farther to the south so rain totals should be in the neighborhood of a half inch to an inch. Once again strong storms and very rough weather is anticipated offshore, especially in the deep water blocks. Although not quite as strong as Wednesday’s storm, this system will be followed by colder air which could still produce gale conditions by Saturday morning. Meanwhile Acadiana will stay mostly cloudy and cool through tomorrow with just a few early breaks in the clouds for tomorrow morning. Rainy weather will commence Friday afternoon but should end before daybreak Saturday, and should also end before colder air infiltrates the system. However, there may be a slight risk of a little wintry mix developing pre-dawn hours Saturday on the back end of this system but best bet for that to occur would be across Central Louisiana and points to the north and east. Colder air will spill into the region Saturday with highs only in the mid-upper 40s in spite of mostly sunny skies. The mercury should drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s for Sunday morning with a nice rebound into the 50s with fair skies anticipated. Milder conditions are expected for next week, but as per yesterday’s blog entry, it looks gray and wet, especially Tuesday through Thursday. So enjoy the sunshine we see this weekend!
Archive for January, 2008
Another Gulf Storm…
Severe Conditions Reported Offshore
As expected most of us received 1-2 inches of rain last night and this morning while offshore conditions were quite intense with numerous reports of wind gusts greater than 50mph with the highest gust reported at 84 mph about 150 miles South of Amelia. In addition, wave heights reached 16-26 ft as the strong storm system barreled on through. Much quieter conditions are moving in for tonight and tomorrow with seasonably cool temperatures to and partly cloudy skies to continue. Another disturbance will be moving in for Friday generating another area of low pressure in the Gulf. This next system won’t be nearly as strong as the last one, but nonetheless I would expect rough conditions again offshore for Friday. For the rest of us inland expect another round of rain on Friday with colder and drier air moving in for the weekend. Highs this weekend will be in the mid-50s while lows drop into the upper 30s for Saturday morning, with some wind chill, and near or slightly below freezing for Sunday morning. Milder temperatures will return for next week but it will remain unsettled with an active sub-tropical jet overhead resulting in plenty of clouds and rain chances.
We are staying on track for a wet and blustery period with rainy conditions developing later tonight and continuous rain likely through much of the morning. Activity should taper off by tomorrow afternoon. The heaviest weather will stay offshore with strong to possibly severe storms and gale conditions with the low pressure system that will deepen rapidly in the Gulf for early tomorrow. Rain totals will likely be one inch or less across the northern parishes of Acadiana, near 1-2 inches along the I-10 corridor parishes and 2-3 inches likely across the coastal parishes, especially Saint Mary Parish. Gale Warnings have been hoisted offshore and there may be some coastal tide issues as strong east to northeast winds will push tides 1-2 ft above normal. In addition to sustained offshore winds near 25-35kts gusts to 45kts will be likely wherever the strong storms manifest. Inland it will be quite breezy with E/NE winds increasing to 15-25mph with higher gusts for the morning and midday hours. Drier, quieter and cool weather should move in for Thursday with another upper system generating some showers and a cold front for Friday. Chilly conditions are anticipated for the weekend under mostly sunny skies with highs in the 50s and lows likely dropping into the upper 20s for Sunday morning. Moderating temperatures with scattered showers should return early next week.
Big Storm Developing in the Gulf
Quick changes are on the way as an upper level disturbance currently in Western Mexico will race eastward tomorrow igniting a winter low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday. It’s been quite awhile since we have seen a low like this in the Northwest Gulf, so here’s the heads-up for offshore interests: expect rain and strong storms offshore with gale conditions possible as the low gets going late tomorrow night into Wednesday. Winds will increase offshore from the E/NE to 15-20kts by late in the day increasing to 25-35kts sustained with gusts greater than 40kts by Wednesday. Seas will likely build to 6-12ft with this system along with the possibility of tides rising a few feet above normal. There will likely be some severe weather with this system, but most of it should stay in the Gulf. Some strong storms could threaten the coastal parishes by early Wednesday so we’ll keep an eye on that as well. Meanwhile, inland expect fair and chilly conditions tonight followed by another seasonably cool day tomorrow. Clouds will increase and thicken throughout the day. So after some limited sun early look for cloudy conditions by day’s end. Rain will likely begin to develop after midnight tomorrow night advancing northward into Acadiana by daybreak Wednesday. I’m going with near a 100% chance of rain on Wednesday with a couple inches of accumulations possible, especially coastal areas that could even see more than that. It will be breezy and stay quite cool on Wednesday with highs only reaching the upper 40s to lower 50s. Factoring in the clouds, the wind and the rain, it will be rather uncomfortable Wednesday. Thursday and Friday will bring fair to partly cloudy and cool conditions with a secondary surge of colder air arriving by Saturday morning. That means freezing temperatures will be possible during the early morning hours this weekend. The next significant storm system should develop by next Monday.
Nice Weekend…Interesting Later Next Week!
We’re setting up for a rather pleasant stretch of weather over the weekend through early next week. Look for temperatures to drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s tonight with a nice rebound tomorrow into the mid-60s. Mostly sunny conditions will yield to considerable mid and high cloudiness late tomorrow in response to a weak upper trough and frontal system that will push through Saturday night. There may be a slight chance of a sprinkle late tomorrow, tomorrow evening or tomorrow night but chances of measurable precipitation will be minimal. Mostly sunny skies and slightly cooler conditions are anticipated for Sunday with slightly colder conditions expected for Monday and Tuesday of next week. By Wednesday it will start to get interesting as an area of low pressure could develop in the Gulf giving us a good chance of rain. Colder air is expected to make a run for the area for Thursday into the weekend while another system could come in Friday bringing at the very least, cold rains, possibly a wintery mix. Although we talking about a week down the road, it is indeed the time of year for a slippery or wintry storm, plus there has been better model continuity over the last few runs so confidence on some sort of winter weather event is above average for that far out. We’ll see how it goes over the next few days, but in the meantime, have a good weekend!
Severe Weather In Acadiana Today
Severe weather battered portions of Acadiana today with reports of severe winds near Jennings and 60mph winds near Iota. A roof was ripped off a mobile home in Jennings, but the bulk of the severe weather associated with this system manifested over Eastern Louisiana into Mississippi where numerous reports of wind and hail damage, and isolated tornadoes were reported. We did have a tornado warning for Vermilion Parish this afternoon with rotation indicated on Doppler radars, but fortunately the damaging circulation did not reach the ground. The rest of us dealt with torrential downpours of 1-2 inches in about an hour’s time producing localized street flooding. Drier and cooler weather will move in tonight with a nice, sunny and seasonably cool day anticipated for tomorrow. This weekend is looking pretty good with the exception of a quick moving weather system that will induce increased cloudiness late Saturday and a few showers Saturday night into the pre-dawn hours of Sunday. Fair and chilly conditions will be with us Sunday through Tuesday with the next weather-maker approaching late next week.
Stormy Thursday
Our frontal boundary stalled right along the coast today so scattered showers lingered across Acadiana with even a report of some pea size hail in the Avery Island early this afternoon. 
Scattered showers will stay with us through the evening hours with the possibility of some sea fog moving in later tonight. Reports of fog lingering offshore today will try to move in this evening with southeasterly winds while our temperatures hold steady in the lower 60s or even rise by morning. A vigorous impulse will advance toward the region tomorrow igniting showers and thunderstorms across the area during the day tomorrow and allowing temperatures to reach back into the low-mid 70s Thursday. 
The Storm Prediction Center has us hatched in for a slight risk of severe weather as the upper level dynamics will be strong enough to cause trouble. There will be the possibility of wind-damaging storms, but the greatest risk should be mainly east of Acadiana. Nonetheless with activity developing overhead tomorrow I wouldn’t be surprised if there will be a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch posted for parts of Acadiana tomorrow. Activity should move out quickly with cooler and drier conditions anticipated for Friday, into the weekend and early next week. The colder weather we have been advertising for next week is now off the table as the long range models have flip-flopped bring another wet weather system in for Wednesday and/or Thursday of next week.
Quick Changes
Showers and storms are moving through this evening as our advertised frontal boundary will bring in cooler conditions later tonight and for tomorrow. Activity has been well below severe levels with nastiest storms bypassing the region well to the north. Activity should decrease from west to east with the bulk of the heftier showers clearing the area shortly after midnight. The front will become nearly stationary just offshore tomorrow so lingering cloud cover and a few sprinkles will be possible tomorrow morning and again by tomorrow evening. Another impulse will advance toward the area Thursday ushering the front back northward as a warm front Wednesday night. Another round of storms will be possible on Thursday, but the quality of the moisture may limit the activity. Upper level dynamics may be a little stronger on Thursday so there may be a risk severe weather with the next system, especially just east of Acadiana. We may see our temperatures warm briefly back into the 70s Thursday, but Friday and the weekend should bring in decidedly cooler conditions. A weak disturbance may produce a few widely scattered rain showers Saturday; otherwise expect mostly sunny skies Friday, and again Sunday through next Wednesday. Highs this weekend will be closer to the upper 50s to lower 60s while overnight lows drop into the lower 40s…right where we should be! A surge of colder air may arrive by Sunday night knocking down our highs into the lower 50s early next week. Light freezes and/or frosts will be possible for Tuesday and Wednesday mornings of next week. The long range projections through the third week of this month will keep our temperatures at or below normal. Once again the models are hinting at colder air in the two week time frame and some precipitation in the cold air…so some sort of winter weather will still be possible later this month…this is the time of year for it…we’ll see.
One More Warm One
We’ll see an unsettled weather pattern this week with scattered showers and a few storms likely by late tomorrow afternoon as a weak front pushes through, but gets hung up along the coast. It will be very warm again Tuesday with highs reaching the upper 70s before the showers kick in. Another impulse will approach by Thursday drawing the front back northward by late Wednesday and yielding a better chance of showers and thunderstorms. While organized severe weather is not anticipated in Acadiana tomorrow, there could be a few healthy storms to our north late tomorrow into tomorrow evening. The system on Thursday should have more punch so the risk of stronger storms will be possible. In between weather systems we should cool into the 50s to lower 60s on Wednesday, rise back into the lower 70s Thursday with decidedly cooler conditions likely into the weekend. Low pressure may develop in the Gulf this weekend allowing for a stronger surge of colder air to advance into the region by Sunday. There should be an opportunity for early morning freezing temperatures for next Monday and Tuesday mornings.
Looking Back at December and 2007 Data
2007 was the 11th warmest on record going back through 1893 (using mean temperatures) while our average overnight lows ranked 2nd warmest. Daytime highs ranked 35th. Rainfall was back to near normal with nearly 60” recorded in Lafayette. I have been running climate data for Lafayette on an old dos program since the mid-80s so hopefully the formatted numbers below translate well on the blog. December 2007 was mild indeed with daytime highs and night time lows running better than 5 degrees above normal. Enjoy the warm-up and have a good weekend!
December’s Monthly Actuals for 2007 using Smoothed Normals
Heating Cooling
Peak below 65 above 65
Day Low DN High DN Mean DN Prec. Wind deg. days deg. days
1 49 3 76 9 62 6 0 2.5 —
2 68 23 82 15 75 19 .02 — 10
3 39 -6 72 5 55 -1 0 9.5 —
4 34 -11 62 -4 48 -8 0 17 —
5 41 -4 73 7 57 2 0 8 —
6 44 -1 68 3 56 1 0 9 —
7 52 8 79 14 65 11 0 — .5
8 70 26 82 17 76 21 0 — 11
9 70 26 82 17 76 21 0 — 11
10 67 23 82 17 74 20 0 — 9.5
11 69 25 82 17 75 21 0 — 10.5
12 69 25 82 18 75 21 0 — 10.5
13 57 13 71 7 64 10 .27 1 —
14 56 12 63 -1 59 6 0 5.5 —
15 42 -2 78 14 60 6 .25 5 —
16 35 -9 50 -13 42 -11 0 22.5 —
17 31 -12 56 -7 43 -10 0 21.5 —
18 44 1 66 3 55 2 0 10 —
19 60 17 78 15 69 16 0 — 4
20 58 15 73 10 65 13 1.13 — .5
21 48 5 66 3 57 4 0 8 —
22 52 9 75 12 63 11 .21 1.5 —
23 34 -9 51 -12 42 -11 0 22.5 —
24 34 -9 48 -15 41 -12 0 24 —
25 35 -8 62 -1 48 -4 0 16.5 —
26 40 -3 66 3 53 0 .36 12 —
27 46 3 56 -6 51 -2 0 14 —
28 51 8 71 9 61 8 .24 4 —
29 46 3 58 -4 52 -1 0 13 —
30 44 1 67 5 55 3 .03 9.5 —
31 37 -6 69 7 53 1 0 12 —
SUMMARY of ACTUALS for December 2007
TEMPERATURE : MONTHLY MEAN: Low = 49.1 HIGH = 69.2 Mean = 59.2
DEPART NORM : Low = 5.1 HIGH = 5.1 Mean = 5.1
Degree Days (from Actual mean): Heating = 248.5 Cooling = 67.5
(from Normal mean): 343.6 0.0
Number of Days using : Heating = 22 Cooling = 9
PRECIPITATION : Total Month = 2.51 Normal Month = 5.32 DN =-2.81 47% Normal
Average daily = 0.08 Normal daily = 0.17
Number of days with measureable precip. = 8
Maximum for December = 14.68 in 1982
Minimum for December = .89 in 1980 YEARLY PREC. Actual through December 31 : 59.03 %Normal = 96 %
Normal through December 31 : 61.44 Depart. Norm : -2.41
—————————————————————————
SUMMARY for January 1 , 2007 to December 31 , 2007
TEMPERATURE : PERIOD MEAN: Low = 60.8 HIGH = 79.2 Mean = 70.0
DEPART NORM : Low = 2.5 HIGH = 1.2 Mean = 1.9
DEGREE DAYS (from Actual mean): Heating = 1298.5 Cooling = 3121.0
(from Normal mean): 1306.6 2454.9
Number of Days using : Heating = 116 Cooling = 247
PRECIPITATION : Total Period = 59.03 Normal Period= 61.38 DN = -2.36
Average daily = 0.16 Normal daily = .17 %Normal = 96 %
Measureable precip. : 140 out of 365 days
Daily Extremes: Low : 30 on February 15, 2007 and 1 other date(s)
High : 101 on August 11, 2007 and 2 other date(s)
Prec.: 2.75 on July 31, 2007