Windy and much colder weather will push into the area tonight following the cold front that is crossing our area this evening. Gusty north winds will increase to 15-25mph overnight ushering a brief shot of winter-like temperatures for tomorrow morning. Morning lows will approach the upper 30s with wind chills likely in the lower 30s in the morning. Mostly sunny and cool weather should dominate our Wednesday with highs reaching the mid-50s. The table will begin to set tomorrow night as cyclogenesis initiates over Texas tomorrow afternoon and evening with a secondary area of low pressure developing in the northwest Gulf by Thursday morning. This system will likely bring showers and storms back to the area before daybreak on Thursday with a strong squall line likely to develop Thursday. Jet stream dynamics, strong mid-level spin (vorticity) and an energetic lower level jet all spell the distinct possibility of severe weather with the Storm Prediction Center predicting a slight risk of severe weather, which may get upgraded to a moderate risk. I wouldn’t be surprised if we wake to a tornado watch Thursday so be on the look out for threatening weather anytime from pre-dawn hours through Thursday afternoon. In addition, strong forcing will also bring several inches of rain to the area with at least 2 inches a pretty good bet at this point. Fortunately the weather will quiet down and be cool on Friday with fair to partly cloudy skies expected along with milder conditions for Saturday. The weather looks good for the parades Saturday with dry but cool conditions for Saturday evening. We’ll warm into the 70s for highs Sunday and Monday while lows stay in the upper 50s, but there will be the risk of scattered showers and perhaps thunderstorms mainly for Monday through Thursday of next week. Today’s models have backed off on the jet dynamics so although I’m expected shower activity, Mardi Gras may not be a washout. Confidence in the pattern after Sunday is below normal however as the models are offering more divergent solutions. The preliminary guess on temperatures for Mardi Gras will be lows in the low-mid 50s with highs in the mid-upper 60s…keep your fingers crossed.
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