KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

The sub-tropical jet threw us a big curve ball today as most of the models, and forecasters missed the dynamics that developed this afternoon.  Although the lower layers of our atmosphere were cold and stable, aloft there was plenty of instability thus we had thunderstorms this afternoon while temperatures hovered in the upper 30s.  I received numerous reports of hail in and around the Franklin area with reports elsewhere of some hail, ice pellets, “soft hail”, or my favorite term “grauple”.  The dynamics remain in place for additional periods of rain and drizzle with the chance of some sleet mixing in, but our temperatures will stay too warm for any surface accumulations.  In fact, I would expect the temperature to slowly rise overnight into the lower 40s.  The rain “should” end tomorrow morning, provided the sub-tropical jet begins to orient in a more westerly to northwesterly fashion.  Clouds should thin tomorrow afternoon with highs getting back into the 50s.  Some fog could be a possibility for our Saturday night with sunny and mild conditions, finally, returning for Sunday.  Highs Sunday should push well into the 60s with low-mid 70s possible Monday and Tuesday.  A front should spark a round of showers and storms Tuesday, with even the slight risk of severe weather, but the big weather-maker should be a storm system that will develop for Thursday.  Heavy rains and or severe weather will be a pretty good bet Thursday or Thursday night…hopefully the pattern will not be as bad as advertised, but I would expect active weather again for next Sunday and for Mardi Gras.  Have a good weekend and be careful on the roads tonight.