KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Nasty storms ripped through the area this afternoon producing frequent wind gusts to 45mph area-wide, but fortunately there were very few reports of wind damage and some small hail.  In fact, we had a few reports of strong winds before the storms arrived as the low-level jet increased ahead of the main squall that pushed through the area.  Rainfall was about 1-2 inches area-wide.  Much drier and colder air will be spilling in with very gusty NW winds as seen following the squall this evening.  After touching in the lower 70s this afternoon we will likely see mid-upper 30s (wind chill not included) by morning.  Sunny and seasonably cool conditions will persist for tomorrow with temperatures topping out in the mid-upper 50s but dropping into the low-mid 40s for parade time tomorrow evening.  Saturday looks partly cloudy and milder while we will likely see plenty of clouds and scattered showers on Sunday.  It will be quite warm with a few passing showers Monday, but although it should be warm for Mardi Gras, showers and storms appear likely, maybe the threat of severe weather again too…we’ll see.  

A nasty, dynamic storm system is beginning to take shape this evening with rain, mixed with some sleet, already developing offshore and along the Upper Texas and SW Louisiana Coasts.  At 5:15pm some sleet was reported in Beaumont mixing in with the rain.  This will be a short-lived phenomenon as our very dry air slowly humidifies and warms later tonight.  Because over-running rains have already commenced aloft, the drier air below is allowing for evaporational cooling to freeze the light rain producing the embedded sleet.  Later tonight the front that swept through here yesterday will advance northward as a strong warm front which will produce enough lift for rain; some sleet early and then later embedded thunderstorms.  Hail bearing storms will be possible by the pre-dawn hours tomorrow.  As low pressure deepens in the Gulf tonight it will advance northeastward moving nearly overhead during the morning hours into early tomorrow afternoon.  An additional threat of severe weather will be likely, especially if the warm sector offshore moves inland.  A few discrete cells ahead of the main squall line that will form tomorrow could become tornadic or produce large hail.  Later in the morning into the early afternoon a strong squall line will advance from west to east producing very heavy rains and the possibility of damaging winds.  So be on the look out early tomorrow and keep it tuned to KATC for the very latest.  Activity will end quickly late tomorrow afternoon with chilly and dry conditions Friday through Saturday morning.  Milder weather will return for Saturday afternoon and we should be near 70 for Sunday.  Unfortunately it still looks quite unsettled for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday with scattered showers getting more organized as we near Mardi Gras.  It could get quite warm Monday with highs pushing well into the mid-70s and it may stay in the 70s for Mardi Gras, but today’s models are wetter and stormier for Fat Tuesday.

Windy and much colder weather will push into the area tonight following the cold front that is crossing our area this evening.  Gusty north winds will increase to 15-25mph overnight ushering a brief shot of winter-like temperatures for tomorrow morning.  Morning lows will approach the upper 30s with wind chills likely in the lower 30s in the morning.  Mostly sunny and cool weather should dominate our Wednesday with highs reaching the mid-50s.  The table will begin to set tomorrow night as cyclogenesis initiates over Texas tomorrow afternoon and evening with a secondary area of low pressure developing in the northwest Gulf by Thursday morning.  This system will likely bring showers and storms back to the area before daybreak on Thursday with a strong squall line likely to develop Thursday.  Jet stream dynamics, strong mid-level spin (vorticity) and an energetic lower level jet all spell the distinct possibility of severe weather with the Storm Prediction Center predicting a slight risk of severe weather, which may get upgraded to a moderate risk.  I wouldn’t be surprised if we wake to a tornado watch Thursday so be on the look out for threatening weather anytime from pre-dawn hours through Thursday afternoon.  In addition, strong forcing will also bring several inches of rain to the area with at least 2 inches a pretty good bet at this point.  Fortunately the weather will quiet down and be cool on Friday with fair to partly cloudy skies expected along with milder conditions for Saturday.  The weather looks good for the parades Saturday with dry but cool conditions for Saturday evening.  We’ll warm into the 70s for highs Sunday and Monday while lows stay in the upper 50s, but there will be the risk of scattered showers and perhaps thunderstorms mainly for Monday through Thursday of next week.  Today’s models have backed off on the jet dynamics so although I’m expected shower activity, Mardi Gras may not be a washout.  Confidence in the pattern after Sunday is below normal however as the models are offering more divergent solutions.  The preliminary guess on temperatures for Mardi Gras will be lows in the low-mid 50s with highs in the mid-upper 60s…keep your fingers crossed.

Our short visit with nice and mild weather will depart Tuesday afternoon with a cold front that should bring scattered showers and storms to the area.  Wind profiles aloft will be quite strong so a few strong storms will be possible with any threat of severe weather mainly from Central Louisiana on northeastward.  Activity should be quick moving with activity ending by sunset tomorrow.  Temperatures will warm into the low-mid-70s tomorrow but will quickly cool back down tomorrow night and for Wednesday.  The next system to follow will take shape in Texas on Wednesday with strong warm air advection and a favorable jet stream aloft to develop storms in the Gulf late Wednesday night advancing toward the coast before morning.  Any cells that develop late Wednesday night in the Gulf could become severe while a secondary threat of intense storms will develop with a squall line Thursday.  As I mentioned in yesterday’s entry, there will be significant threat of severe storms and locally heavy rains.  In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Storm Prediction Center hatches much of Acadiana in for a moderate risk of severe storms by Thursday morning with tornadic/wind damaging cells possible.  Drier, cooler weather should move in for Friday and Saturday with a return flow and warm weather expected for Sunday into Monday, may be in Mardi Gras. Scattered showers will be possible Sunday into Monday, and if the latest long range model is to be believed, wet conditions are a distinct possibility for Mardi Gras…so as we say, “stay tuned for the latest.”   

After a quiet start to the work/school week we’ll see scattered showers and storms moving in for Tuesday.  Temperatures will warm back to normal finally for Monday with highs reaching the mid-60s.  Look out for sea fog and milder lows for Monday night into early Tuesday followed by a warm Tuesday with highs reaching the mid-70s before the storms kick in.  Right now I am not looking for severe weather with the system Tuesday, but there could be a few healthy storms especially farther north into Central Louisiana and Southwestern Mississippi.  We should be cooler and mostly dry Wednesday then the “big” weather event for this week arrives Thursday.  The storm system that has been plaguing the West Coast with heavy rain, storms and snows will be advancing eastward allowing for fairly deep low pressure to develop over Eastern Texas and the NW Gulf of Mexico.  This system will likely bring the threat of heavy rains and severe weather Thursday into Thursday night with probably a fairly large tornado event for portions of the Southern Plains into the SE U.S.  It’s too early to tell exactly what we will see in Acadiana but several inches of rain, severe storms in the area and very rough conditions offshore will all be good bets.  Friday into early Saturday we’ll see a break with seasonably cool temperatures, but Sunday through Mardi Gras still looks quite unsettled with healthy rain chances possible especially for Sunday and Monday.  This energetic pattern will likely continue into the second week of February.     

The sub-tropical jet threw us a big curve ball today as most of the models, and forecasters missed the dynamics that developed this afternoon.  Although the lower layers of our atmosphere were cold and stable, aloft there was plenty of instability thus we had thunderstorms this afternoon while temperatures hovered in the upper 30s.  I received numerous reports of hail in and around the Franklin area with reports elsewhere of some hail, ice pellets, “soft hail”, or my favorite term “grauple”.  The dynamics remain in place for additional periods of rain and drizzle with the chance of some sleet mixing in, but our temperatures will stay too warm for any surface accumulations.  In fact, I would expect the temperature to slowly rise overnight into the lower 40s.  The rain “should” end tomorrow morning, provided the sub-tropical jet begins to orient in a more westerly to northwesterly fashion.  Clouds should thin tomorrow afternoon with highs getting back into the 50s.  Some fog could be a possibility for our Saturday night with sunny and mild conditions, finally, returning for Sunday.  Highs Sunday should push well into the 60s with low-mid 70s possible Monday and Tuesday.  A front should spark a round of showers and storms Tuesday, with even the slight risk of severe weather, but the big weather-maker should be a storm system that will develop for Thursday.  Heavy rains and or severe weather will be a pretty good bet Thursday or Thursday night…hopefully the pattern will not be as bad as advertised, but I would expect active weather again for next Sunday and for Mardi Gras.  Have a good weekend and be careful on the roads tonight. 

Our dreary, chilly weather pattern will continue through Saturday morning but a break is on the way for Sunday into Monday.  The sub-tropical jet stream remains locked in across the area so the clouds will keep the temperatures quite chilly.  A series of disturbances within the sub-tropical jet will allow for some patchy light rain tonight and then again during the day tomorrow.  A strong upper level system on the West Coast this evening will race eastward engendering another area of low pressure to develop in the Gulf tomorrow afternoon throwing another shield of steady rains on us tomorrow evening into the overnight hours.  Another inch of rain will be possible with this weather-maker tomorrow night.  Rains should end early Saturday with clouds thinning late in the day.  Sunday looks sunny and mild while partly cloudy and warmer conditions are anticipated for Monday.  The next weather system will likely be a frontal boundary that should have enough upper level energy to produce thunderstorms next Tuesday, perhaps with a slight risk of severe weather.  Another big storm will be likely later next week with soaking rains and strong storms a good bet for next Thursday.  The active pattern will continue into Mardi Gras weekend with another storm system projected for the Sunday before Mardi Gras and another system around Fat Tuesday.  Timing will likely change so bet on 2 out of the 4 days before Mardi Gras to be on the wet side.  It’s way too early to call any kind of accurate temperature forecast for that period, but persistence of current trends would be likely, so plan on cool.

I spent Monday reporting on the American Meteorological Society’s annual convention in New Orleans.  This is the mother of all weather conferences where many different aspects of weather and climate research are presented and discussed.   About 5,000 scientists were in the Big Easy with specific conferencing geared toward a better understanding of tropical systems and the impact in our area, the State of Louisiana and New Orleans.  Mayor Ray Nagin was scheduled to be the keynote speaker at the kick-off luncheon Monday, but he was a no show.  Although I was not privy to what events led up to this apparent snubbing, most insiders were indicating that it related to the politics of the current state of research and some of the hard facts as they relate to the New Orleans area…whatever the reason, it did not go over well with the AMS.  I spent my day at the conference at the Tropical Symposium where spirited debate intertwined with even a few personal attacks.

Dr. Kerry Emmanuel, MIT, described a tropical future given IPCC data set projections (in a global warming world), while use of current weather databases, including tropical records, were hotly debated as the argument of data consistency, from Dr. Chris Landsea appeared quite valid.  Landsea indicates that while recent reports show that we have reported more Category 5 storms in the Atlantic basin over the last several years, there were likely other big storms, in the post-satellite era, that were likely Category 5 status in some points of their life cycles.  But over the last few years there has been more stringent classification of tropical systems and better interrogation of what’s happening inside these storms.  Landsea therefore proposes that the recent upswing in tropical intensity is related more to our ability to better detect storm intensity.  Dr. Tom Knutson, from the Geophysical Fluid Thermodynamics Lab at Princeton presented that given in a warmer world, there will likely be increased vertical wind shear, knocking down the number of storms in the Atlantic Basin, but there could be a signal for an increase in intensity on the higher end storms.   Other tropical experts from around the world presented there findings, with many indicating that there has not been a net increase in worldwide tropical activity over the last thirty to forty years and there has actually been a slight down-turn in the Atlantic basin.  Monday afternoon brought lively, and at times quite acerbic, debate.  But the quote from Tom Knutson really struck a chord with the state of this research…”It is not appropriate to make any statements on where we are going with respect to tropical activity through the rest of this century.”  Although it’s obvious to us in Southern Louisiana that we need to be current with global climate issue changes, especially with respect to sea level rise, any additional threat from tropical activity due to global warming is not considered a detectable or significant factor at this time.  Every hurricane season should be considered a danger to us no matter what happens with the global climate.        

It was a very interesting weekend with heavy rain and even snow in Central Louisiana as an upper level low moved out of the Gulf. The winds were very strong offshore with reported gusts over hurricane force with waves at 14 feet.  The Ardoins in Turkey Creek were kind enough to send us video of the snow that fell in Northern Evangeline parish which occured for about 45 minutes. The snow only dusted the cars and grass and melted not too long after it fell. Most of Acadiana got about an inch and a half in the rain bucket before the low moved east and produced more snow for Central Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. Selma, AL picked up on about 5 inches of snow.

Chilly temperatures settled in after the rain moved out bringing a light freeze down to the coast. And although its cold here we really can’t complain because for the Packers game the temp was at -1 with wind chills running at about -20 to -30. They may be used to cold but you never get used to weather THAT cold. The Arctic blast will last for a couple more days for the north but here we will quickly warm up as high pressure slides east and ushers in easterly then southeasterly winds. Monday will be about 10 degrees warmer and Tuesday will be another 10 degrees warmer. Another upper level low moving out of the Gulf will be moving through on about Thursday producing the same widespread wind and rain we have seen twice in the last week.  A cold front will move through shortly after the low but it doesn’t look to be as strong to give the chance of wintery precipitation again. With the warm-up, cool down and rain next week it will be hard to keep from getting sick.

Enjoy your week!

It will be a rainy, breezy and chilly night with widespread rain likely from midnight through the pre-dawn hours.  Rain totals are not expected to be as high as our Wednesday event, but expect rain amounts of a half an inch to one inch with a few spots catching a little more.  The bulk of the precipitation should end tomorrow morning, but any lingering moisture through mid-morning may mix with a little sleet, especially northern portions of Acadiana.  There will be no accumulation as the activity will be light and rather brief, and the ground will be to warm.  Clearing skies are expected for Saturday afternoon with breezy and cold conditions likely into Saturday night.  Temperatures are still on track to cool and stay in the 40s through tomorrow likely dropping to 30, perhaps upper 20s for Sunday morning.  Lots of sunshine on Sunday will make it feel better with highs reaching back into the low-mid 50s.  Milder weather is expected next week, but there will be plenty of clouds and likely rain chances for the mid-latter part of the week as the sub-tropical jet will stay active overhead while frontal boundaries waffle along the coast into next weekend.   Offshore, Small Craft Advisories have been posted for the coastal waters out through 20 miles, while a Gale Warning has been issued for the deep water areas.  Look for northeat to eventually north winds near 25 to 25 knots with seas building 6-12ft.  Higher wind gusts up to 45-50kts will be possible late tonight through early tomorrow morning with strong storms.  Have a good weekend and try to stay dry and warm!