KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Moderating temperatures are forecast over the next few days as a return flow out of the Gulf becomes established across the region.  After a chilly one tonight temperatures should rebound into the 60s tomorrow with 70s likely for Wednesday.  The sub-tropical jet stream aloft will allow for considerable high cloudiness over the next few days while some stratiform lower clouds move northward out of the Gulf.  An impulse in the jet may allow for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms Wednesday night with stronger, possibly severe dynamics, just staying to our north.  The weather behind this system will be quite mild with highs staying in the mid-upper 70s through Saturday.  Another vigorous cold front should bring a good chance of storms, perhaps severe weather, this Saturday with chilly and dry conditions to return for Sunday and continuing through Christmas.  

The much advertised cold air has finally arrived and with it has come windy conditions making it feel even cooler. The front moved through around 1:00pm after a morning start in the upper 70s. No severe weather was reported with the squall line but winds did kick up to about 30 mph with higher gusts in some areas. We had about 0.2″ of rain in Lafayette with 0.3″ in New Iberia. It seemed like a lot more but because the rain was so short lived we didn’t accumulate much. Temperatures fell steadily through the day and at this time (almost 10pm), there has been a 30 degree drop. Winds will begin to relax Sunday afternoon as high pressure moves right over us. You won’t have to worry about wrapping your pipes because only a light freeze is expected north of I-10. We will struggle to reach into the 50s but this cool air won’t stay long as the return flow kicks back in and humidity and warmth returns.

Cooler temperatures and lots of clouds stay with us overnight through Friday as our coastal frontal boundary becomes nearly stationary and the drifts northward during the day tomorrow.  A few sprinkles will be possible through Friday evening but any activity should be light and isolated in nature.  A storm system will develop in western Texas tomorrow and will travel to the east-northeast and become the next big US storm for the weekend.  This should allow for a good chance of showers and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms to cover Acadiana mainly early Saturday with activity ending by mid-afternoon.  Windy and much colder conditions will move in for Saturday night with Sunday morning lows dropping into the mid-30s…wind chills Sunday morning will be in the 20s!  It looks like freezing temperatures will be likely Monday morning with lows near 30-32…it won’t be a hard freeze however.  Lots of sunshine is expected Sunday and Monday with highs only in the mid-50s Sunday and barely making 60 on Monday.  Milder weather will return for the middle part of next week, with the next storm system giving us a chance of showers and storms by Thursday.  Interestingly enough, the long range projections have been indicated that the next storm system after next Thursday will be approaching by Christmas Eve…and the latest long range model run is indicating that some pretty cold air and some moisture will be following behind this system so wintry weather just to our north will be possible and a few snow flurries by Christmas morning could be possible in Acadiana!  I might be “wish-casting” here but there’s always hope!

I have had a few emails and calls over the last couple of days with folks that have spotted a few meteors…and they have been spectacular!  Mary Viator got this rare shot last Thursday at dusk just east of Guydan.  Although the Geminid meteor shower peaks Friday, keep your eyes peeled over the next several nights into the weekend.  We’re going to have plenty of cloud cover at night over the next few days but we may gut lucky for Saturday night. 

From spaceweather.com…

Earth has entered a stream of dusty debris from asteroid 3200 Phaethon and, as a result, the annual Geminid meteor shower is underway.  Sky watchers around the world are reporting a slow drizzle of late-night meteors at least as bright as the stars of the Big Dipper. The best is yet to come: Forecasters expect the shower to peak on Friday, Dec. 14th.  No matter where you live, watch the sky between local midnight and dawn; people outdoors before sunrise on Friday could see dozens to hundreds of shooting stars. Depending on the details of Earth’s encounter with Phaethon’s debris stream, the shower could continue into the weekend as well.

Visit http://spaceweather.com for updates and full coverage including sky maps, photos and eye-witness reports.

There are changes on the way for later in the week with colder air, and perhaps freezing temperatures by the latter part of the weekend.  The frontal boundary that we have been talking about for the last several days will make a move toward Southern Louisiana tomorrow with a few scattered showers possible ahead, near and following the front.  As the front gets to the coast it will stall allowing for plenty of clouds and a few showers Thursday into Friday.  A strong impulse aloft will energize the front Friday night into Saturday yielding a pretty good chance of rain and some embedded thunderstorms.  There may even be a risk of some potent storms depending on the frontal boundary location and where surface low pressure develops for Saturday.  Highs Wednesday will once again approach the lower 80s but will cool into the 60s for Thursday and Friday.  Saturday’s temperatures could be tricky with the front and low pressure nearby but the mid-upper 50s to low-mid 60s would be a pretty good bet.  Colder air will blast in behind Saturday’s system with temperatures likely near freezing for both Sunday and Monday mornings.  Moderating temperatures with some showers will be possible by mid-next week.

Our very warm weather will continue through Wednesday with cooler and unsettled conditions expected for later this week.  Fog will continue to be an issue later tonight and again for tomorrow night with lows dropping into the mid-60s which are more conducive for fog versus the upper 60s to lower 70s we saw Saturday and Sunday nights.  Isolated showers will be possible through Wednesday with rain chances increasing Wednesday night and Thursday as the cool front finally sags southward across the area.  Although it will be getting cooler later this week into the weekend it will stay unsettled with rain chances through early Saturday.  Daytime highs later this week and the weekend will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s while overnights lows drop into the 40s and eventually into the 30s for Sunday and Monday mornings.  Clear and chilly conditions are anticipated on Sunday with milder temperatures and perhaps rain chances returning by next Tuesday. 

Keeping with the theme of a crazy weather pattern, the National Hurricane Center is looking at a low pressure system near Puerto Rico that will probably get a name based on the satellite imagery we’re seeing this evening.  December systems are rare but tropical systems have been identified in the tropics in this month in the past, most recently as late December in 2005.  This system will not be a threat to our region thanks to winter westerlies that will be moving in later this week and into the weekend.   

Balmy spring-like temperatures with late night/early morning sea fog will be the mainstay this weekend.  Warm, moist, southerly winds of the Gulf of Mexico will chill by cooler water temperatures along the immediate coast and wetlands providing ample opportunity for thick fog over the next several nights.  The key factor will be wind speed; when the winds dies down, the fog will set in.  If the winds stay greater than about 5-7 mph we’ll see mostly low stratiform cloudiness, but once winds drop below 5mph the fog will take hold…for tonight that should be by midnight, but we’ll likely see some night to night variation.  Morning fog and clouds will give way to intervals of sunshine and breezy southerly winds over the next several days with daytime highs close to records highs, in the lower 80s.  Overnight lows will stay in the mid-60s so some air conditioners will likely be clicking on this weekend.  A few sporty showers will be possible each and every day but chance of measurable precipitation staying at 20% or less through Tuesday.  This very warm pattern will stay through Wednesday with scattered showers and cooler conditions more likely late Wednesday into Thursday.  Have a good weekend, and be careful with that fog.  

After a brief cool down for our Thursday it appears that spring-like conditions will return to the area Friday through early next week.  A weak cool front will cross the area by daybreak Thursday engendering breezy northeast winds that will turn easterly and then southeasterly by Thursday evening.  Friday through Monday will bring partly to at times mostly cloudy skies with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s while lows moderate into the low-mid 60s.  I would also look for considerable late night and early morning cloudiness and fog beginning Friday with a few rounds of thick sea fog possible.  Rain chances will stay slight but we cannot rule out a few brief showers this weekend through early next week but rain chances should stay below 20%.  A storm system in the west this weekend will advance north of our area by late Tuesday which should bring a fairly good chance of showers and some thunderstorms late Tuesday into Wednesday.  Another brief chill may follow but it looks like above normal temperatures will stay with us through mid-month.  The models have been showing a brief delivery of winter temperatures around the 17^th, give or take a day or two, but confidence in the forecast that far out is not that high at this time.

It’s going to be a chilly one tonight, perhaps the coldest night so far this season.  So the National Weather Service has issued a Freeze Warning for the first possible killing freeze of this fall season.  Temperatures will approach the low-mid 30s by daybreak but should warm up nicely into the mid-60s for tomorrow afternoon.  If any of us do see freezing temperatures by daybreak, it should be only for a couple of hours.  Make sure though you take care of the tender vegetation.  A zonal upper flow over the lower 48 will allow for milder then even warmer conditions across the region later this week and into the weekend.  Low pressure troughing in the SW U.S. this weekend will keep our temperatures well above normal into early next week and may allow for a chance of a few widely scattered showers Friday and beyond, but rain chances should be no higher than 20-30%.  Anomalously warm December weather will probably stay with us through mid-month but we may some nice and cold weather, or at least a significant change in the general weather pattern after the 16^th…we’ll see!

A big change is coming for our Monday as a strong cold front sweeps across the area during the predawn hours accompanied by a few showers.  Skies will by mid-morning Monday with windy and much cooler temperatures moving in during the day.  We may be hard-pressed to reach 60 tomorrow and with high pressure moving overhead tomorrow night allowing for near calm winds by Tuesday morning we may see frosty conditions for Tuesday morning.  Winds will be the main issue tomorrow as they gust to 30mph during the day.  Temperatures Monday night into Tuesday morning will likely approach the mid-30s.  Milder weather will return for the mid-latter part of the week with slight rain chances, at best, for the latter part of the week into the weekend.  Interestingly enough I still don’t see any real cold winter weather in the area through mid-December.