KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Beautiful weather will stay with us for the rest of the week into the weekend as a dry northwest flow aloft keeps the nice stuff coming.  A secondary surge of drier and cooler air will get here by Thursday night insuring a real taste of fall for Friday and Saturday mornings where temperatures should dip into the mid-50s.  A return flow form the Gulf should usher in warmer and more humid conditions for early next week with slight rain chances as a weak front approaches the area.  It looks like moving the annual Festival Acadiens from September to October was a fantastic move…get out and enjoy!

After a weekend of tropical waves and scattered storms, Monday brought little change with another tropical wave late this afternoon.  A real change is on the way with a frontal trough arriving late tomorrow.  So another round of scattered showers and storms are expected for tomorrow but drier air will be moving in for Wednesday.  It won’t be much cooler initially with a secondary front ushering in decidedly drier and cooler conditions by Friday and the weekend.  Highs will be in the upper 80s tomorrow and Wednesday, with less humidity Wednesday with highs closer to the mid-80s Thursday and low to mid-80s this weekend.  More importantly it will be cooler at nice this weekend with lows dropping to near 60, maybe the upper 50s if the aggressive long range models are correct.  Unfortunately, the humidity will return early next week with showers not far behind.  In the tropics, the only area of concern at this time is a low pressure system off the coast of Belize and the Yucatan.  This area will likely fester through the next few days with some slow development expected.  With increasing westerlies across the northern Gulf Rim the tropical threat to our part of the Gulf will be quite limited…and hopefully done for this season!    

It will be a typical summer-like weekend with plenty of tropical moisture and humidity.  The weak area of low pressure in the Gulf is making landfall along the upper Texas coast while lots of tropical moisture flows into the area.  So expect partly sunny skies early for tomorrow and Sunday with daytime heating induced showers and a few thunderstorms during the afternoon into the early evening hours.  This pattern will likely continue through Monday and perhaps Tuesday.  By mid-next week drier air and eventually slightly cooler conditions should advance by late in the week.  But if you’re looking for a real fall cool front you will have to wait for a little while longer, at least a week and a half away, maybe more.  Meanwhile, the tropics remain busy with disturbed areas of weather near the Florida Keys, the Northwest Caribbean, near Puerto Rico and in the Atlantic.  No one area appears to be major trouble, however we’ll watch the ones by South Florida and the NW Caribbean as these features should drift toward the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend into early next week. Have a good weekend!

The non-tropical low in the Gulf is located about 150 miles south of Lafayette.  Although still a nice swirl on the visible satellite imagery, the water vapor imagery shows drier air moving over the system.  So it is likely that this system will not become tropical prior to landfall across the upper Texas Coast tomorrow.  Tropical moisture continues to advance into the area in the wake of this system with a good chance of on and off tropical showers tomorrow.  There will be a few spots that get healthy showers or even some thunderstorms, but most of the activity should be short lived and quick moving.  The tropical humidity and moisture will stay with us through the weekend with partly sunny skies and mostly scattered afternoon showers.  This pattern should continue through Tuesday of next week with a pretty good signal for drier and cooler air to arrive later next week.  Elsewhere in the tropics, the only area of interest for us will be with a poorly organized disturbance east of the Bahamas and near Cuba.  This impulse will push westward to southwestward through tomorrow and then toward the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend.  We’re not done with hurricane season quite yet, but it would be fair to say that next week may be the last week for anything significant to get going in the Gulf that would threaten our part of the world…so we’ll watch the next disturbance closely and hope that today’s computer models are right in not developing anything too big.  But a named system in the Southern Gulf by early next week is a distinct possibility.  As we say things can change, so keep it tuned to KATC for the very latest…

The weak non-tropical low in the Gulf remains just that this afternoon.  The well-defined swirl in the Gulf has been void of deep convection and currently most of the models forecast weakening.  I have seen plenty of these over the years and generally they are one convective blow up from strengthening to a depression or something more.   It appears though that is not in the cards with this one as upper winds should disrupt any storms that develop near the center.  The circulation center should near the SW Louisiana coast by early Friday, moving inland during the day.  So there will be roughly 24-36 hours of this system over water, but there pressures have remained steady and winds have actually decreased near this system as compared with yesterday at this time.  So for now we’ll go with a gradual increase in cloud cover, especially for tomorrow afternoon, with a good chance of scattered showers for Friday, especially during the afternoon hours and along the coast.  Obviously we’ll continue to monitor this system closely, especially if convection tries to encircle the center of the low.  Elsewhere in the tropics, another area of disturbed weather east of the Bahamas appears to be ripe for tropical development.  This feature should strengthen as it gets pushed toward the Southeastern and Southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.  Yesterday the models indicating a significant hurricane but today the models have backed off of that solution, but as always we’ll have to wait and see what develops and where before we can make a decent forecast. Meanwhile there may be a cool front approaching the area by next Wednesday which could be a guiding factor on whatever winds up in the Gulf next week.  In the near term, the weekend into early next week looks partly cloudy, warm and humid with scattered daytime showers possible.  Highs will stay in the upper 80s while lows get back into the “muggy” zone, in the low-mid 70s.

After another beautiful October day with low humidities and sunny skies, it looks like the transitional phase of the forecast will occur tonight and Thursday.  Dry air firmly dominating most of the southeast, and the Gulf Coast including most of the western Gulf of Mexico will eventually erode tonight and Thursday as tropical moisture from the Gulf moves in.  We are still monitoring a broad upper level low pressure system in the Gulf.  There is a hint of a low level circulation over the extreme SE Gulf of Mexico, but most of the showers and storms this morning are displaced to the north of that low.  Strong wind shear will begin to relax over the region and a Subtropical or tropical depression may form in the next day or two.  Until the dry air over the western Gulf is removed and the upper level low fills in some strengthening is possible.  What we do know is that the surface low is expected to drift WNW at about 10 mph.  This would bring the low along the upper Texas coast to the exteme southwest part of Louisiana.

 A more defined disturbance is now located east of the Bahamas and is forecast to strengthen into a tropical system in a couple of days.  Most models bring a hurricane over the western tip of Cuba to near the Yucatan by Monday, and a gradual westward drift toward the Bay of Campeche and eventually into Mexico.  This has more potential because of low wind shear and a ridge of high pressure aloft.  We’ll monitor this as well.

 One more disturbance well out in the Atlantic also has potential for development, but most models keep this over the waters of the Atlantic.

 For the next couple of days expect sunshine, then increased humidity and cloud cover Thursday.  Late Thursday afternoon we may see a few showers over the eastern part of Acadiana, and those showers and storms will move over the rest of the area Friday.  Offshore conditions could be rough especially Friday and Saturday as the disturbance moves south of Louisiana.  Wouldn’t be surprised to see some tropical storm force gusts in the squalls offshore, winds on land should stay less than 25mph so enjoy the breeze this weekend…it will be the only thing saving us from the suffocating humidity.

Our area of disturbed weather in the Gulf remains just that today.  Surface pressures dropped quickly this afternoon with some buoys and ships in the Gulf indicating a 1005/1006mb surface low about 180 miles SSW of Tampa Florida.  While this remains a cold core system it could gradually transition to a warm core system by Thursday.  Either way winds have been in the 25-35mph range with higher gusts in storms on the western flank of this system, so any deepening of pressure will likely result in this system getting a “sub-tropical” moniker.  While the global models don’t show much strengthening with this feature, as always, they have a hard time with transitioning cold core systems.  Nonetheless whatever this system will do, this feature will likely head our way for Friday.  I certainly don’t expect a hurricane but a sub-tropical or tropical storm is possible…not likely given the scenario today…but there will be an opportunity for strengthening provided the low level circulation remains in tact while it stays over warm Gulf waters through Thursday.  If this system would go tropical on us it would probably be no sooner than Thursday.  Right now I’m expecting the chance of showers by late Thursday with on and off showers and storms/squalls possible on Friday.  Right now the severe weather risk is minimal, but if this system does develop we may find ourselves in the northeastern quadrant of this low Friday provided landfall of the circulation is along the upper Texas Coast or across SW Louisiana, which is the best guess at this time based on our current guidance  Tides have been about 1ft above normal along the coast and could increase to 1-2ft tomorrow or more therafter depending on the future path of the surface circulation.  Winds and seas will likely increase offshore for Thursday with some rough weather in the Gulf likely Thursday into Friday.  Scattered tropical showers, accompanied by warm and humid conditions will likely stay here for the weekend.  The front we talked about yesterday appears to be off the table for right now.  Interestingly enough, there are signals that another tropical system will be advancing from the SW Atlantic into the southern Gulf of Mexico for early next week…and this one definitely looks more tropical in nature and significant in strength.  So we’re not done yet with hurricane season in the Gulf.  Dr. Gray et al came out with their updated forecast indicating there will be room for four more tropical storms, two hurricanes and one major hurricane left in October and November…hopefully the system next week won’t be the major one…stay tuned for developments over the next few days and for next week.       

It looks like this will be another week of quick changes with sedate and comfortable weather expected through Wednesday.  But an upper low over Florida will traverse from east to west across the Gulf this week with some tropical or sub-tropical development possible later this week.  This upper low is reminiscent of TD #10 a few weeks back with plenty of dry air and wind shear keeping this system from being too much of a trouble maker.  Currently there is a weak surface low seen on the high resolution NASA Satellite Imagery roughly between the Florida coast and Andros Island in the Bahamas.  We’ll see if this area becomes more inflamed over the next few days, but the way upper level winds are at this time, this will be a slow process.  But with high pressure to the north and lower pressure in the Southeastern Gulf it will likely quite breezy in our part of the Gulf for the mid-latter part of the week even without much significant development.  A frontal trough will approach this weekend which could turn anything in the Gulf more northwestward or eventually northward to the Texas or Louisiana coasts, so we’ll be watching this system closely.  The bottom line is that I would expect tropical showers in the area by Thursday with a good chance of a tropical slug of moisture to follow Friday.  Lingering shower and/or thunderstorm activity will be possible Saturday and perhaps into Sunday.  Noticeably cooler, dare we say, almost fall-like weather, can be expected by late Sunday into early next week. So we should have something to look forward to (we hope) after another week of watching something in the Gulf.

After additional humidity moved in for Sunday, it appears the dry air will win the battle of Louisiana today.  Dew Points are already falling this morning across southeast Louisiana, and temps in Mississippi this morning have dropped into the 50s!  I don’t think we will drop that far tonight, but we do expect low 60s with the dry air back in place.  Daytime highs will push the 90 degree mark through Wednesday.  As we move toward the end of the week, moisture from a disturbance near south Florida should increase our chances for showers.  This should move west over the Gulf of Mexico this week.  It has a chance for development but I think it would develop like Lorenzo.  It would have a better chance for development once it moves past the Yucatan.  The projected path eventually brings it toward the southern tip of Texas or northern Mexico.  Beyond this week a strong cold front is showing up on the models!  I mean a real cold front that would bring “October” coolness to us.  If it makes it we could see temps in the 70s during the daytime next week, and maybe some lows in the upper 50s….Lets keep our fingers crossed!

Other Tropical News, Karen fizzled out over the weekend, and Melissa only lasted for about a day.  No named systems are out there as of this morning.  I hope that lasts for the rest of the hurricane season.  Only 60 days left!