Simply gorgeous weather will be with us over the next 36 hours with comfortable humidity and near seasonal temperatures expected through Sunday morning. A return flow from the Gulf will commence on Sunday with partly cloudy skies, higher humidity and a few showers possible by Sunday evening. Impressive dynamics will take shape ahead of a strong cold front on Monday yielding an excellent chance of rain and thunderstorms Monday with lingering showers possible into Tuesday. There may be a severe weather threat as well on Monday depending on the jet stream orientation and the quality of instability. The models are having a hard time resolving the large scale features across the lower 48 next week with a strong upper low getting cut-off from the polar jet. So the forecast beyond day 3 or 4 will stay up in the air, but I do look for significantly cooler conditions to move in for mid-next week. Interestingly enough, both the 12z and 18z long range GFS models are indicating a significant tropical system approaching/developing in the southern Gulf by the first weekend of November. Since the models are having such a hard time with next week, I wouldn’t put much stock in the forecast beyond…at least for right now! Have a good weekend!
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