KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Although today didn’t go nearly as expected, and the computer models have been out to lunch, we’ll get back up on the bicycle and give it another try for tomorrow!  Tropical moisture is forecast by all the computer models to increase dramatically tomorrow while upper level dynamics will become favorable for showers and thunderstorms.  If the models are close to being right we’ll see at least a 60% chance of getting wet.  Storms in the Gulf associated with the area of low pressure in the west-central Gulf intercepted the moisture across the region today and tomorrow we might see more of the same.  Meanwhile upper level winds strengthen tomorrow while at least some of the moisture in the Gulf works its way inland, I would expect the wettest conditions to be over Eastern Louisiana. Computer model atmospheric profile forecasts do indicate increasing instability so strong storms tomorrow would not be out of the question.  On a larger scale, a large trough and low pressure system will be rolling out of the Rockies into the plains states tomorrow which should entrain the moisture northward from the Gulf.  This will probably be a big severe weather-maker across the plains tomorrow and Thursday.   Drier, more stable air should move in locally for Thursday with just a slight chance of showers possible in the morning, and possibly again overnight Thursday into very early Friday morning.  Southwest winds on Thursday could translate to a 90 degree day while slightly cooler conditions could move in for Friday and Saturday. Another weather system will approach for Sunday drawing in more moisture from the Gulf yielding a chance of scattered showers and storms late Sunday into early Monday with much cooler conditions possible by Tuesday of next week…interestingly enough the long range models are completely opposite with the large scale weather factors for next week so the forecast is liable to change…it always is interesting to see how the computer models wrestle with summer to fall scenarios.  So far this season, they have been doing poorly.