KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Good news coming from the Weather Lab today as drier less humid weather remains on the forecast through mid-next week.  It looks perfect for the Sugar Cane Festival in New Iberia this weekend!  A weak wave of moisture may cross the area Sunday just brushing the coastal parishes and that may spark off an isolated shower near the coast but rain chances should be no higher than 10%.  Otherwise expect mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 through next Wednesday while overnight lows reside in the upper 60s moderating into the lower 70s for late next week.  A return flow from the Gulf may occur later next week allowing for a few scattered showers by Thursday or Friday.  In the tropics Lorenzo has dissipated in Mexico with plenty of tropical moisture trying to sneak northward toward South Texas.  Tropical storm Karen remains a sheared system and may become a depression by the end of the weekend.  The long range path of this system may take a more westerly turn beyond 3-4 days, if it survives, but a few of the models hold onto this feature and re-strengthen it possibly approaching the Bahamas so we’ll continue to monitor it.  Farther to the east, a tropical depression has formed south of the Cape Verde Islands.  This system will be exposed to a relatively hostile environment while a turn into the open Atlantic is expected.  The models have been all over the place over the last few days with possible development of disturbed weather in the NW Caribbean, or the Bahamas, or near Florida for early next week, but it appears that the Gulf threat, if any, should be low.  In fact, looking at the long range forecasts the jet stream westerlies should begin to develop across the SW US over the next week to 10 days and then spread eastward across the Northwestern Gulf.  This scenario usually shuts out tropical activity near us, and eventually brings a significant front through the area.  So if we do not see tropical activity in the Gulf through next weekend, the risk of something big in our part of the Gulf will be greatly diminished.