KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

We are still on track for a very nice weekend with more comfortable humidity and slightly cooler nights.  The frontal boundary marking the drier air will cross tonight allowing for a few showers, but high pressure will build in quickly yielding mostly sunny skies tomorrow, the weekend into early next week.  The models continue to advertise that some sort of disturbance will develop along this frontal trough as a tropical surge of moisture moves toward the Gulf this weekend into early next week.  It is still unclear how this situation will evolve and where any potential system will go, but I would expect some sort of tropical system or tropical hybrid to develop in the Southeastern Gulf/NW Caribbean or over Florida and the Bahamas by early next week. It should be noted that the first week of October is no stranger to tropical storms and hurricanes in the Gulf with Hilda and Lili striking Acadiana on October 3 in 1964 and 2002 respectively.  TD #13 showed a nice bursting pattern on the satellite imagery this afternoon and shortly thereafter hurricane hunters found tropical storm strength winds.  Lorenzo is very close to becoming a hurricane and may become one prior to landfall near Veracruz tomorrow.  Farther to the east, Tropical Storm Karen will fight a fairly hostile environment over the next few days, but if it survives the weekend there may be a westward turn with this system so we’ll continue to monitor it, especially for our East Coast and Bermuda friends.