Tropical Storm Karen continues to hold its own over the central Atlantic Ocean. Winds are now up to 50mph with higher gusts. It still appears that Karen will drift over the Atlantic with no threat to land. Karen is forecast now to become a Hurricane by Friday, then weaken back to a tropical storm over the weekend.
The disturbance 94L over the Bay of Campeche became Tropical Depression #13 yesterday afternoon. Recon aircraft were out there and found a closed circulation with thunderstorms developing around the center. There still is a high amount of shear in the area, but slow development is expected. 13 may become a tropical storm later today or tomorrow as it meanders toward the Mexican coastline. The latest forecast takes 13 inland after 48 hours.
The disturbance 97L near Puerto Rico is looking better today. 97L brought a lot of rain and lightning for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico last night, but not much wind. Surface pressures are steady for now, and as the upper level conditions become more favorable, another depression might form. Latest guidance for 97L brings it toward the Bahamas and eventually near the southern tip of Florida. A deep trough over the U.S. might pick it up and turn it northward along the east coast before it has a chance to move into the Gulf. One model brings 97L to hurricane status 5 days from now.
A new disturbance 98L is being monitored near the Florida Keys. This is a broad upper level low, with a weak surface circulation near Key West. As our front over the midwest pushes eastward, the track of 98L should pull more toward the northeast into the Atlantic and then rapidly moving toward Bermuda after day 5. Models keep this system fairly weak over the time period. The model showing the strongest development only brings it to a weak tropical storm three days from now.
Our weather will be improving over the next couple of days. We could experience more fog during the early morning hours, but as drier air begins to move in Friday and Saturday the fog problems should be solved. Also with lower humidities over the weekend, we might get our night time lows back into the mid 60s. Looking ahead into the first few days of October, it looks like humidity and near summerlike temps will return. There are hints of a significant cold front rolling in by the end of the second full week of October. Hopefully it will come sooner.