As one tropical storm dies out over the northern Atlantic, another forms over the mid-Atlantic. Jerry which gained tropical storm strength this weekend continues to be absorbed by a trough over the cooler waters. Jerry barely hung on as a minimal tropical storm for a day with winds only reaching 40mph.
Meanwhile, in the central Atlantic one of our disturbances (96L) we talked about yesterday gained tropical depression strength Monday night, and today it was given a name as it gained tropical storm force winds. Karen is the 11th named storm for the 2007 hurricane season. Karen appears to be moving WNW at 15 mph. The forecast takes it over the central Atlantic eventually curving it northward before it reaches the Virgin Islands. It may reach hurricane strength over the 5 day period, but it will encounter lots of wind shear day 4 and 5, so if it makes it to hurricane status, it won’t last long.
Our other disturbance (97L) in the Caribbean is moving NW and spreading showers over Martinique and the rest of the Leeward Islands. It isn’t showing any signs of development this morning and will continue to move NW eventually bringing rain to Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.
In the Gulf of Mexico (94L) is still hanging in there. There is a surface feature evident on the satellite imagery, and there are a considerable number of storms around that center. Wind shear is high on the west side of the system, so organization is slow. It still has a chance for development. Most models bring it into Mexico or Texas, but a few are now keeping the system offshore for several days, bouncing around the Bay of Campeche. Air Force Recon aircraft are on standby again today if needed. Moisture from (94L) will continue to stream northward today bringing us more scattered rain, but dry air in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will slide in between the disturbance and Louisiana eventually cutting off the flow, lowering our rain chances as we head through the week.
Hurricane Season Count So Far…
11 Named Storms, 3 Hurricanes, 2 Major Hurricanes
Normal
10 Named Storms, 6 Hurricanes, 3 Major Hurricanes
Predicted
17 Named Storms, 9 Hurricanes, 5 Major Hurricanes (May 31 Forecast)
15 Named Storms, 8 Hurricanes, 4 Major Hurricanes (August 3 Forecast)