Slightly drier and more stable air advected into Acadiana this afternoon helping to reduce shower and thunderstorm coverage across the area. This pattern will continue into the weekend but there will still be a good opportunity for scattered storms Friday as an upper level disturbance accompanied by a weak surface trough moves southward into the area tomorrow. This system will dissipate across much of Acadiana this weekend but could still provide a focus for scattered afternoon storms over the next few days. Meanwhile farther to the east showers and storms will be more likely as a weak area of low pressure could form across the Florida Panhandle. So if you have beach plans to the east this weekend plan on healthy storm coverage from Eastern Louisiana through the Florida Panhandle. Here in Acadiana our rain chances should get closer to 20-30% through early next week. Tropical moisture and instability with another frontal trough should enhance our rain chances for the latter part of next week.
In the tropics, the most viable trouble spot is associated with a disturbance east of the Windward Islands that was looking much healthier on satellite imagery this afternoon. This system will probably develop by this weekend and could become a named system this weekend and possibly something stronger for early next week. The long range computer models do keep a fairly strong ridge of high pressure over the Bahamas and the Gulf of Mexico next week which should keep whatever develops moving on mostly a westerly track that would point to Central America or the Yucatan. We’ll keep a close eye on it nonetheless. Interestingly enough the long range models are also indicating that conditions should be quite conducive for several tropical systems to develop in the next couple of weeks with activity mainly over the open Atlantic. As we head into primetime hurricane season, here’s hoping they all stay in the Atlantic!