KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

The frontal trough that enhanced our rains late yesterday evening and again this afternoon will keep enhancing our rain chances this weekend.  The trough will likely dissipate across Southern Louisiana this weekend while keeping the highest chances of getting wet across the coastal parishes tomorrow.  Whatever is left of this trough will move back northward Sunday with scattered storms associated with an enhanced sea breeze possible for Sunday and Monday.  Typical late summer temperatures and scattered mainly afternoon storms will stay with us through much of next week…no real fronts on the horizonL. 

The disturbance near the Eastern Caribbean was flown by Hurricane Hunters this afternoon and based on their data this system was upgraded to Tropical Depression #6.  TD6 will likely become Tropical Storm Felix this weekend as it continues to move on almost a westerly track.  High pressure should be strong enough over the southeast U.S. to keep this system on a track similar to or south of Hurricane Dean’s path. We’ll be watching this system closely, so check on us during our newscasts this weekend for the latest.  Have a happy and safe holiday weekend!

Slightly drier and more stable air advected into Acadiana this afternoon helping to reduce shower and thunderstorm coverage across the area.  This pattern will continue into the weekend but there will still be a good opportunity for scattered storms Friday as an upper level disturbance accompanied by a weak surface trough moves southward into the area tomorrow.  This system will dissipate across much of Acadiana this weekend but could still provide a focus for scattered afternoon storms over the next few days.  Meanwhile farther to the east showers and storms will be more likely as a weak area of low pressure could form across the Florida Panhandle.  So if you have beach plans to the east this weekend plan on healthy storm coverage from Eastern Louisiana through the Florida Panhandle.  Here in Acadiana our rain chances should get closer to 20-30% through early next week.  Tropical moisture and instability with another frontal trough should enhance our rain chances for the latter part of next week. 

In the tropics, the most viable trouble spot is associated with a disturbance east of the Windward Islands that was looking much healthier on satellite imagery this afternoon.  This system will probably develop by this weekend and could become a named system this weekend and possibly something stronger for early next week.  The long range computer models do keep a fairly strong ridge of high pressure over the Bahamas and the Gulf of Mexico next week which should keep whatever develops moving on mostly a westerly track that would point to Central America or the Yucatan.  We’ll keep a close eye on it nonetheless.  Interestingly enough the long range models are also indicating that conditions should be quite conducive for several tropical systems to develop in the next couple of weeks with activity mainly over the open Atlantic.  As we head into primetime hurricane season, here’s hoping they all stay in the Atlantic!  

The skies were clear enough this morning to afford much of Acadiana an opportunity to see the lunar eclipse.  This picture captured by Francis Todd was absolutely gorgeous (after looking at it, this picture may have been doctored a little bit, but I liked it anyway)!  Weather-wise it looks like we will stay mired in deep tropical moisture over the next few days.  So expect a good chance of scattered showers and storms with the daytime heating with activity diminishing during the evening and overnight hours.  There won’t be much of a change through the latter part of the week and quite possibly through the weekend into early next week.  

In the tropics, an area of disturbed weather flared up across the Western Caribbean into Central America and the Yucatan.  This feature is in association with a tropical wave that is inland and an upper low drifting northwestward across the Yucatan.  This disturbance may push into the Southwestern Gulf over the next couple of days…this time of year we have to watch just about every flare-up.  No developments are expected in the near-term however.  Meanwhile farther to the east a tropical wave and weak low half way between Africa and the eastern-most Caribbean may develop over the next few days.  In addition, another healthy wave is emerging off of the African coast.  The long range computer models today are grabbing onto one of the Atlantic waves and developing it down the road which should make the week after next more interesting…stay tuned. 

On this date two years ago Hurricane Katrina had bombed out to a Category V, it’s incredible on how this storm was able to sustain such high winds over such a large, 30nmm diameter, eye.  Although Katrina made landfall as a Category III, the storm surge associated with this system was closer to that of a Category V, especially along the Mississippi Coast.  Hopefully we never have to see such a large storm like Katrina any time soon.  Unfortunately we remain in the midst of a positive cycle for increased activity and intensity in the Atlantic Basin going back through the mid-1990′s.  This is primarily associated with the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Belt that is tied to a muti-decadal salinity and water temperature pattern.  This era will likely last at least another decade, so more blockbuster storms can be expected somewhere in the future.  There is still plenty of African Dust in portions of the Atlantic right now so maybe we’ll get some help from this feature at least this year,  perhaps knocking down the number of storms…but I wouldn’t bet on it.    

An upper level low combined with plenty of deep tropical moisture will yield a good chance of showers and locally heavy thunderstorms over the next few days.  Even though the upper low gradually dissipates by the end of the week, plenty of tropical moisture will be stuck in the area.  This pattern will keep above normal rain chances with us through the weekend.  By the latter part of the weekend or early next week a decaying frontal boundary may serve to keep our rain chances elevated through mid-next week.  So keep you umbrella handy!  Long-term models are showing some signs of a decent front arriving around the 10^th of September give or take a few days so keep your fingers crossed.  Meanwhile skies should hopefully be fair enough early tomorrow morning to afford some of us a view of the total eclipse.  The moon will be totally in the Earth’s shadow beginning at 6:22am and will begin to exit from darkness at 7:24am.  It may look quite interesting during the pre-dawn hours so set your alarms early!

Scattered rain today helped keep the temperatures from getting into the upper 90s. Saturday will be partly cloudy with a few showers once again but Sunday rain chances increase slightly as an upper low in the Gulf moves west of us and pumps moisture over the state. Also a frontal boundary will stall just to our north creating more instability for Monday. So we can expect more rain before the front washes out and we return to normal seabreeze showers each day through the week.

A more typical summer pattern will develop across Acadiana over the next several days as the ridge of high pressure that has been dominating our weather of late weakens enough to allow for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.  Deeper tropical moisture will edge into the area for next week with good chance of storms possibly developing mid-next week.  A frontal boundary will approach the area for the latter part of next week but it’s too early to tell on whether we’ll see any cooler conditions.  This frontal trough should however enhance the rain chances for Wednesday and perhaps Thursday.  Hopefully we may see a north winds and lower dew points by next weekend…thoughts of fall begin to dance in our minds!  But don’t get excited yet! 

The tropics are very quiet across the Atlantic as the Bermuda ridge has expanded to the Azores and has encroached southward into the Intertropical Convergence Zone.  This should keep any developing systems at bay for at least the next week…always good news this time of year.  This pattern over the next week could support lower pressures and possible tropical development closer to the SW Caribbean, Central America and into the Eastern Pacific.  Meanwhile closer to home, an upper low over NW Caribbean will push into the Gulf and bring with it deeper tropical moisture that could ultimately add to our daily rain chances for the latter part of the weekend into next week.   

Many of our viewers have enquired about some of the Google Earth tools/hacks that I have showed over the last few days.  If you have a broadband connection there are some really cool tools that you can use to track the weather, storms and offshore data.  First you need to download the latest version of Google Earth that now includes sky and astronomical information.  This stuff is a must have for any weather nerd, sportsman, etc or if you have kids interested in weather, earth science, astronomy and/or geography.  You will certainly kill a lot of time playing!  There are some great mash-ups out there for Google Earth; check out google ocean at justmagic.com for great worldwide offshore data and satellite imagery-there’s a host of links at the bottom of the page.  Also visit the real-time radar and satellite page that is an experimental site for severe weather watchers.  My favorite is guiWeather.com that hosts offshore data and Hurricane Hunter flight information and even nearly live lightning.  Hopefully you’ll have as much fun as I have with this stuff! 

High pressure will stay large and in charge across the region over the next several days keeping our temperatures above normal while suppressing our rain chances.  Dean now back out of the open water of the Bay of Campeche may strengthen back to Category II status prior to its second landfall in Mexico tomorrow.  Some long period swells are propagating northward from the southern Gulf with tides running about 1ft above normal this afternoon.  Tomorrow 4-8ft waves will lap up along the coast producing tides close to 2ft above normal, especially across coastal Cameron Parish.  So there could be a little minor coastal flooding tomorrow but the waves and the tides should diminish on Thursday.  The weather pattern will change little through the end of the week while the ridge should weaken a little this weekend engendering a slightly better chance of afternoon storms.  Better rain chances may be possible early next week as a tropical wave combined with an upper low should traverse the Gulf.  The upper low is currently positioned over the Central Caribbean northward into the sub-tropical Atlantic.  While there is very little organization with this feature at this time we will monitor it just in case.  Side note for this evening: the International Space Station should be visible in the northern sky moving from west at east at 8:51pm…it should be a nice evening for viewing.

Very early Tuesday morning Hurricane Dean brought its most powerful winds onshore near the Mexico/Belize border.  Winds 165mph making it the first landfalling Category 5 hurricane since Hurricane Andrew in 1992.  We still haven’t gotten word from the most affected areas.  As daylight arrives we should be getting in more pictures.  It does appear that the tourist areas of Cancun and Cozumel may have been spared the worst of the weather, but some damage has been reported.  Dean has weakend as of this post, now a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds.  It should re-emerge off the coast into the Bay of Campeche as a Category 2, then re-strengthen to Category 3 status prior to a second landfall along the Mexican coast near Veracruz early Wednesday morning.

 The other disturbance near the Virgin Islands doesn’t look any more impressive than yesterday.  It still might have a chance for development.  Models that have found the wave take it toward the East Coast later this weekend.  Still very unsure if it will develop, and if it does intensity forecasts are marginal at best.

 High pressure will build along the northern Gulf Coast for the rest of the week.  Except for a few showers today, the rest of the week should be hot and dry.  Afternoon temps will run in the mid 90s, heat index should be around 105.  A few afternoon storms return by the weekend, pushing the temps back to normal August values.

A collective sigh of relief could be heard over the weekend as the ridge of high pressure following the upper low no cross the Texas coast has continued to usher Dean on a westerly track.  Dean will make landfall tonight on the Yucatan Peninsula south of Tulum with Cancun and Cozumel being spared the major brunt of this storm.  Dean will likely re-emerge in the Bay of Campeche by late tomorrow afternoon and should continue on to a second landfall south of Tampico in Mexico late Wednesday.  We may see some healthy swells approach the coastal parishes on Wednesday which could help bring tides 1-2ft above normal with large breakers and rip currents possible especially across Cameron Parish.  Elsewhere in the tropics, as Dave alluded to this morning, we are watching an area of disturbed weather in the Atlantic northeast of the Caribbean.  This area remains disorganized but conditions are relatively favorable for the possibility of slow development over the next few days.  But with the big ridge of high pressure west of this system it has no place to go for right now.  The same high pressure will build into the region over the next few days knocking rain chances down and bringing temperatures back up into the mid-90s.  By the weekend the ridge may weaken enough to allow for a few more scattered storms.