KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

After two full days of enjoyable weather, it looks like today and Wednesday will transition back to a wet pattern not unlike the weather seen for most of the summer.  Upper level low pressure will develop over northern Texas and get cut off from the main flow.  Abundant tropical moisture from the Yucatan will surge northward into the low and dump more rain on the area.  Unfortunately it appears flooding rains will fall over most of east Texas and southern Oklahoma.  Rivers there are at bankfull from earlier rains this summer, and any additional rain will cause problems.  Here in Louisiana, it looks like we will be on the eastern edge of the rain, so scattered showers and thunderstorms will be in the area for Thursday and Friday.  Some heavy downpours are possible bringing some street flooding, but right now it looks like the widespread flooding should stay over the Lone Star State.

Our nice and dry weather will last for one more day before the humidity, and eventually the showers, return.  The humidity should increase for Wednesday with a few afternoon showers and storms possible.  Rain chances will become likely for Thursday and Friday as another upper low develops to our east and gradually retrogresses back to the west.  At the same time a tropical wave off of the Yucatan Peninsula will push tropical moisture northward.  This moisture should reach our part of the world as the upper low nears, so once again we could see locally heavy storms developing later this week.  In the near term, enjoy the break from our typical summer humidity. 

When was the last time you said, “It feels great outside!” during the month of July.  After a cold front passed through early Sunday, the humidities have dropped so low that it actually feels good outside.  Early morning temps will drop into the upper 60s Monday and Tuesday morning, while afternoon highs will still reach the 90s.  Dry air heats up and cools off much easier than humid air, so there should be a wide temperature spread between the highs and lows, until later this week where the average temps are expected to return. 

Tropics are mostly quiet again with a little disturbance north of Bermuda. It is in an area of high wind shear, so we’re not expecting development.  Next week shear values will drop all across the Atlantic Basin, so any disturbance might have a struggling chance for development late next week and into early August.

Showers and storms drenched the area again today with another good chance of storms in the forecast for tomorrow.  As advertised in our weathercasts over the last several days, drier more stable air should begin to move in for Sunday and should stay with us through Tuesday.  So after tomorrow, expect mostly sunny skies and hot conditions Sunday through Tuesday…but it will be a dry heat!  Highs will push into the low-mid 90s while night time lows could drop into the upper 60s for Monday and Tuesday mornings.  So enjoy the break from the wet pattern, it will only last a few days.  The same upper trough that will push the drier air into the region will gradually morph into a cut-off upper low that will drift westward along the northern Gulf rim.  This upper low will eventually tap into tropical Gulf moisture thereby giving us good rain chances again for later next week.  Have a good weekend!

Another day of scattered storms in the region.  Moisture from the Gulf will slide into Acadiana this morning and early this afternoon.  Storms should fall apart late this afternoon and this evening.  Over the weekend, a cold front, yes a cold front will drift toward the coast with drier air moving as far south as coastal Mississippi and Alabama.  This front should produce a strong line of storms early Sunday morning, and some of those storms may drift toward Acadiana.  As the rain moves into the Gulf, skies should clear Sunday afternoon with slightly lower humidities.  Next week looks average with the hazy, hot, and humid weather returning! 

That front may get things started in the tropics, some models are predicting a low pressure area to form along the front once it moves off the Atlantic coast.  One model forms a tropical depression off the Carolina coastline Monday.  The tropics have been quiet over the past few weeks, which is actually typical for July.  Strong wind shear and some Saharan dust over the Atlantic has suppressed any development.  The models are indicating a major shift in the pattern by early August, with wind shear almost disappearing from the Virgin Islands across the Caribbean, and most of the Gulf.  In early August we usually find tropical systems developing in the Caribbean, around The Bahamas and the Bay of Campeche.  All of these areas are forecast to have very low wind shear about 10 days from now.  Late August and September is when we watch the tropical waves roll off the African coast.  Let’s keep our fingers crossed!

Today was another day with tropical showers and thunderstorms.  Some very heavy storms with frequent lightning and torrential downpours covered much of Acadiana.  We weren’t alone with heavy storms near Lake Ponchartrain producing funnels and waterspouts.  Nola.com has some great shots and video of the activity earlier today.  Tropical moisture will persist with a good scattering of locally heavy storms tomorrow and again on Saturday.  In addition, a frontal trough will try to come in from the backdoor for the weekend which will likely enhance the storms Saturday, but could bring in drier more stable air from the north to the south during the day on Sunday.  I’ve lowered the rain chances accordingly for early next week with yet another upper low developing for mid-next week.  Combined with tropical easterly waves approaching from the southeast, we could again see several rounds of locally heavy rains by the end of next week.

Tropical moisture moving North into Louisiana will spark off storms near the coast this morning, and inland early this afternoon.  It looks like areas along the coast could see nearly an inch of rain, while the northern fringe of Acadiana might see only a trace.  Scattered (40%-50%) rain chances will continue this week and most of the weekend, as a front from the Ohio Valley settles into the deep south.  This will pool the tropical moisture along the Gulf coast and squeeze out the rain along I-10 and those points southward.  The front will dissipate early next week, so rain chances will go down Tuesday and Wednesday with temps in the 90s.

Rain chances should go down a little tomorrow as high pressure tries to edge in from the east.  I’m expecting more sunshine for our Wednesday thus we should see highs reaching back into the lower 90s.  The computer models are pointing at another active sea breeze day on Thursday with another surge of Gulf moisture moving northward.  Yet another upper trough will advance from the northwest Friday and Saturday which should enhance the chance of thunderstorms.  There is the chance there may be enough of a push behind this trough to bring in drier and more stable air for Sunday into early next week, so I have lowered the rain changes accordingly during that time-frame.  Hopefully this trough pattern changes soon as this type of pattern can lead to tropical activity in the Gulf.  In the tropics, thunderstorm clusters in the Western Gulf looked more impressive today but there is little evidence of any organization.  Elsewhere, tropical waves were noted in the Central Caribbean and approaching the southern Windward Islands.  Lots of Saharan dust and stable air was sandwiched in between the waves in the Eastern Caribbean and the Atlantic.

Once again it’s a new week…but the same pattern!  An upper low parked over Northwestern Louisiana will continue to interact with tropical moisture producing a good scattering of showers and thunderstorms again tomorrow.  And with rapidly developing thunderstorms look for a few more funnel clouds, heavy downpours and frequent lightning.  Most funnel clouds that form in this pattern though rarely reach the ground, but they always look quite dramatic.  If the thunderstorm activity dies down quickly enough, look for another outstanding tropical sunset.  The deep moisture and colder air aloft will make for spectacular reds and purples during the evening hours.  The upper low will gradually shear apart through mid-week while slightly more stable air tries to move in, so I’m expecting the rain chances to go down a little for mid-week while temperatures shoot back up into the upper 80s tomorrow and lower 90s for Wednesday and Thursday.  Yet another upper low may re-develop for the weekend so rain chances could be elevated for Friday through Sunday.  The longer range projections for the rest of the month continue to call for above normal rains and below normal precipitation.  At least the tropics remain quiet…for now…

As promised storms moved through starting this morning and continuing on and off through the day. Most of us had light to moderate rain but in some spots the storms got really strong. In Cameron parish I received a picture of a tornado spinning in the marsh before dissipating. No homes were damaged and no one was injured. And I also was e-mailed a pictures of rare roll clouds (first two pictures) along the leading edge of the storms this morning.

Sunday more storms are expected through the day as shortwave energy aloft continues to make our atmosphere very unstable. A stalled frontal boundary will stay with us for a few days before finally moving west about mid-week. We can expect rain to be heavy at times with a few breaks.