Changes are on the way as plenty of tropical moisture has been pooling in the Gulf and is expected to begin surging northward tomorrow. So expect higher humidity tomorrow, more clouds developing throughout the day, and scattered showers and some thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Activity will become more widespread for Thursday and Friday as a weak upper low over Texas will keep the tropical moisture conduit pointed at Louisiana for several days. There shouldn’t be any one area where there will be a focusing mechanism for major flooding rains, however, there will be the potential for an inch or two of rain each day into the weekend so areas that see repeated storms could get quite soggy. What makes this pattern more interesting and perhaps very wet is that a tropical wave that is pushing into the Bay of Campeche will get drawn northward in this pattern. The root of the axis of this wave connects southward through Central America and into the Pacific so the draw of tropical moisture could be potentially quite deep. When this happens someone usually winds up with a 10 inch plus rainfall…but that could happen anywhere from Texas to Mississippi so we’ll keep an eye on this.
Speaking of the tropics, we’ll keep an eye on the wave entering the southern Gulf…development is not out of the realm of possibility. Another tropical wave was noted in the Central Caribbean while the rest of the tropical Atlantic remains under the influence of dry and dusty air from the Sahara. This dust can really knock down on the tropical development process, but most of the dust has been dissipating by the Central Caribbean, so the tropical hot spots over the next few weeks will likely be the western Caribbean and the Gulf…provided upper shear decreases, which it should as we head into August. Hopefully the dusty pattern will continue for 10 more weeks, but that is just wishful thinking.