KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Most of us got a break today from the hefty afternoon storms as a wedge of drier more stable air moved in between weather disturbances to the east and west.  Wind damage was reported with some nasty storms by Grand Chenier early this afternoon as the drifted to the southwest.  Farther to the east big storms were firing up across southeast Louisiana where most should stay for this evening.  The computer models have been insisting on slightly cooler temperatures tomorrow (upper 80s) but we’ll go with lower 90s for now with scattered afternoon storms staying in the forecast for tomorrow and Friday.  We could see lower rain chances for the weekend while enhanced prospects of rain and storms with tropical moisture may be with us for early next week. The long range models show a definitive transition from the semi-static pattern that we have been in over the last few weeks to an “easterly” regime in the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the month.  This could mean that the Gulf will begin to be more inviting for tropical disturbances in about 10-14 days…

Some subtle day to day changes are expected with more big heat tomorrow and the chance of hefty afternoon/early evening storms.  As per the past few days, be on the lookout for excessive cloud to ground lightning and torrential downpours in some storms with localized street flooding possible.  It looks like rain chances may go down a little for Thursday and perhaps Friday with typical afternoon storms for the weekend.  Highs should get closer to the lower 90s after tomorrow with overnight lows residing in the low-mid 70s.  Yesterday it appeared that we would see enhanced rain chances for this weekend, but today the models are drier so we’ll stay with a 30% chance of getting wet for now.  It looks like we may tap into deeper tropical moisture next week which could enhance our rain chances for at least Monday and Tuesday.  You may have also noted the haze increased today across the area.  This is in response to a more established (albeit weak) northerly flow aloft and at the surface. 

The haze reflects more pollutants and particulates from central and eastern portions of the US.   I would expect hazy conditions to continue for tomorrow with a slow improvement possible this weekend.  Interestingly enough, once we get more thunderstorm activity and a deeper pull of air coming from the Gulf, our air will get cleaner and the skies will become a deeper shade of blue.  This may indeed occur next week.  This pattern usually makes for dramatic cloud patterns especially late in the day when the sun is setting…at least something to look forward to!

The summer pattern of old is with us and will stay with us probably over the next few months.  Our daily afternoon/evening thunderstorms will be with us again tomorrow.  Even though the computer models have been advertising low rain chances we will still likely see another round of afternoon storms tomorrow.  It seems that once we get regular thunderstorm activity, going back through much of last month, the residual ground moisture helps with the building of the late afternoon storms.  Tomorrow I’m going with a 30% chance of getting wet during the afternoon, and even if you don’t get wet, you’ll probably see a storm nearby or hear the thunder. Although we do not expect organized severe weather, some storms will be capable of producing a lot of cloud to ground lightning and torrential downpours.  The winds aloft will remain quite light so once again the storms will be slow moving with localized street flooding possible.  Rain chances should go down to 20% or less Wednesday into Thursday as slightly drier and more stable air tries to “backdoor” from the northeast.  As we head into the weekend it looks like a weakness and or upper low will develop in Texas and then slowly move eastward.  This should give us a good shot of rain chances and the threat of more widespread heavy storms Friday into the weekend.  Sometimes these systems produce flooding events so we’ll see how things play out for the rest of the week and we’ll have an update tomorrow.  At least we’ll see more clouds and temperatures closer to the upper 80s versus the low-mid-90s expected for the rest of the week.

Temperatures are average but the dew point is unusually high, reaching into the mid 70s. That is pushing the heat index to near 100. No relief is in sight for the next couple of days as highs top out in the low 90s. Only a slight chance of showers in the forecast as high pressure aloft keep the rain from becoming widespread or developing into severe storms.

Here is how you can keep track of the heat index at home.

Another outbreak of storms mainly due to the outflow boundaries, or rain cooled air causing small scale cold fronts, of yesterday’s storms ripped through Acadiana today. The atmosphere was left very unstable and with daytime heating storms easily formed. Rain began late this morning and trained over the same areas causing up to 13 inches in northern Vermilion parish from Maurice to Abbeville and west to Gueydan. Unbelievable rain totals from one day’s rain. From funnel clouds to golf ball size hail to oil tank explosions, the weather proved how violent it can be. The storm prediction center keeps records of all severe weather. There were many more reported to the National Weather Service in Lake Charles.

Tomorrow keeps the threat of severe weather once again in scattered afternoon storms. We will be monitoring the weather to watch for strong storms.

It’s been a very busy day with severe storms and storm damage reported all over Acadiana. Crowley had three quarter inch hail. Oberlin and Kinder reported trees and power lines down which caused a fire. A caller reported two funnel clouds near Hwy. 191 between Eunice and Iota at 3:15pm. And Scott had 60-70 mph winds and up to quarter size hail. There was everything from funnel clouds offshore Cameron parish to widespread power outages across the area as these storms quickly moved through. It seemed as fast as the storms came they went and that kept the rain from causing flooding.

All it took was a weak shortwave of upper level energy and daytime heating to trigger a meso-convective complex or a middle size cluster of storms. It’s hard to tell when these systems will fire up and how long they will last. Shreveport dealt with one last night and a few of those storms held together long enough to bring storms to Allen parish and light rain to Lafayette. They usually weaken as the sun sets but occasionally, if given the right environment, the storms will continue.

We will still have rain chances the next few days before we head into a drying trend.

 

After hurricane hunters investigated the area of low pressure off of the Yucatan Peninsula they determined the storm was a tropical storm. Barry will continue toward the big bend of Florida and could make landfall as early as tomorrow morning. A trough in the western Gulf which brought us the high rain chances the last few days will keep Barry from developing into a hurricane. Also the storm will be moving over cooler water before making landfall. The forecast is for the storm to increase in forward speed before being absorbed into a cold front on the Atlantic coast.

This storm serves as a reminder that hurricane season is here and may be an active one. Florida has less than 24 hours to prepare for this storm and it shows how little time we have this time of year to get ready. So its always best to buy eveything you need before the warning is issued. But tropical systems have formed before the actual start of hurricane season before. In 2003, Tropical Storm Ana formed April 20th and there has been 18 tropical storms and four hurricanes that formed before June 1st since 1951. We have already had Andrea this year and now Barry gets things started for this season. Although it’s not headed our way we will continue to keep an eye on Barry through the weekend.

Our forecast is finally dry for a couple days and then a weak cold front passes to our north increasing our rain chances early next week. By Wednesday rain chances go down and temperatures go up. We will be in the low 90s by the end of the week.

Enjoy your weekend!