KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

An update to yesterday’s blog…it looks like the forecast will still pan out as indicated yesterday, but elevated rain chances/scattered storms may last a little longer into next week.  The area of disturbed weather in the vicinity of the Bahamas looked slightly more organized on satellite imagery and the NHC has indicated that a weak are of low pressure may have formed just south of the lower Florida Keys.  Right now it just looks like this system will enhance the rains over the Florida Peninsula and the Bahamas over the next few days. 

Our weather has simmered down to a more palatable pattern with respect to rain chances, and intensity of the afternoon storms.  An extension of the Bermuda ridge of high pressure has pushed all the wet and nasty weather back into Texas where there continues to be major flooding problems.  For us expect more typical summer heat and humidity with the risk of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  This pattern will stay with us into the weekend with a bump in the rain chances possible for late in the weekend into early next week as a weakening frontal trough approaches.  Rain chance could go down while temperatures climb into the mid-90s for mid-next week. So the 4^th is looking hot!  

The tropics remain quite, but as I alluded to several weeks ago, the pattern has indeed opened up for tropical waves to enter the Gulf.  This pattern will be set for the next several weeks, but eventually we won’t be dealing with just “waves”.  Right now though there are two waves of some interest.  One located near the Yucatan Peninsula and one mainly associated with an upper low over the Bahamas.  Some moisture from the wave in the Yucatan may try to squeeze up here for Friday, so we may see a slightly better chance of afternoon storms then.

Tomorrow will be the 50^th anniversary of Hurricane Audrey making landfall.  Up until the 2005 season, Hurricane Audrey was the benchmark storm for Southwest Louisiana, but a lot of folks of late claim that Hurricane Rita surpassed the ferocity of Audrey.  Don Menard, author of “Hurricanes of the Past: The Untold Story of Hurricane Audrey”, will be releasing a second edition of his book tomorrow.  He sent me a letter a few weeks back including a column he had written for the Cameron newspaper, the Cameron Pilot.  Don presents some excellent points on how Audrey was likely stronger than recognized by the National Hurricane Center, but the main gist of his story compares Audrey with Rita.  Most of us certainly consider Rita and Katrina as the new benchmark storms for our generation, supplanting Audrey and Camille, but Don makes some valid points about the magnitude of Audrey’s surge.  Comparing Audrey and Rita’s surges yield quite similar inundation.  In fact Rita’s high water marks penetrated farther inland than Audrey.  But that doesn’t tell the whole story…remember, over the last 50 years we have witnessed much coastal erosion along our shores.  According to Don, back in the 1950s, some portions of the Intracoastal Waterway had levees up to 20ft which helped block some of Audrey’s surge.  Today there isn’t anything more than 6ft elevation along the coastal waterway from years of erosion, manmade and natural.  Rita was a large and intense Category 5 storm the day before landfall, and although considered a Category 3 at landfall, the surge was more like a 4…and most of the worst inundation followed the storm and was more like a secondary surge produced by the tropical storm force winds from the south that lasted for 18-24 hours after Rita made landfall.  So there was likely less impeding Rita’s surge inland, and much less now for future storms, post Rita.  Rita eased along the coast at 13 mph and came in at an angle where the initial surge rose on the order of 5 feet per hour for a couple of hours across coastal Cameron Parish.  Audrey came in “normal” to the coast, on a right angle, which maximized the intensity of the surge and likely rose faster than Rita’s.  In addition, large 50 foot waves generated by Audrey just piled into the coast with the storm as it was moving rapidly at 30mph.  This likely generated an incredible current with the surge.  It still amazes me that there were any survivors. 

Audrey also likely produced higher sustained winds and wind gusts especially farther east of landfall where wind gusts to 86 mph were recorded in Lafayette.  In addition, wind gusts over 100mph were reported through Monroe, with gusts in excess of hurricane force all the way up through Western New York and Canada as Audrey became extratropical. 

The real tragedy with Audrey was the high loss of life due to the lack of solid meteorological information disseminated at the time.  This was a time years before there were satellites in space, and before radar was operational at the National Weather Service in Lake Charles (then called the Weather Bureau).  Over the years, I have heard stories of how the storm was downplayed by the government and the local media the night before landfall, but I have no evidence to substantiate that.  It could just have been what I have seen many times, there is a change, it’s a major change, and there is little time to react.  Audrey was a lesson on how a storm that was drifting north, due east of Brownsville, earlier in the day on the 26^th, accelerated to 30-35mph that night, pushing the Gulf of Mexico inland by 100am that night.  Folks that thought they could leave the next morning didn’t have a chance.   Donavan Landreneau and Sam Shamburger with the National Weather Service in Lake Charles have for the first time, pieced together Air Force radars that logged information in Houston and Alexandria and have reconstructed Audrey’s storm surge. Check out their page.  Tomorrow there will be a ceremony remembering Audrey at the Cameron Courthouse Square at 10am.  It is open to the public.  KATC will be there and we’ll have a full report on our newscasts tomorrow evening.     

As expected, tropical moisture has entrenched itself over the area with locally heavy downpours today and more of the same is anticipated for tomorrow.  While there remains no focusing mechanism for the storms, combine the daytime heating with all the tropical moisture and you can expect more locally heavy downpours.  Due to the true tropical nature of our atmosphere, there will likely be the risk of a few funnel clouds or waterspouts that develop with rapidly intensifying the storms inland and offshore.  Rain chances should stay at or above normal for the rest of the week and into the weekend…keep the umbrella(s) handy

It will be quite the typical summer weekend with mostly sunny and hot conditions Saturday and just a slight chance of an isolated late afternoon storm.  Sunday will bring partly cloudy skies with typical scattered afternoon storms.  The tropical wave we’ve been tracking in the NW Caribbean will get into the Gulf this weekend and should reach our shores by Monday morning.  So look for a good chance of storms, and perhaps locally heavy rainfall Monday and Tuesday of next week.  Scattered afternoon storms will be likely for the rest of next week.  Have a good weekend!

Rain chances are down, but not completely eliminated as high pressure builds over the region.  This means our temperatures will be rising into the mid-90s over the next few days.  Rain chances should stay in the vicinity of 10% through Friday, less than 20% on Saturday, with typical scattered storms possible late Sunday.  A tropical wave in the Central Caribbean will be heading for the Gulf this weekend while another low pressure trough develops over Texas.  This will translate to increasing rain chances early next week…and like the pattern of late, mix a trough with tropical moisture, the result will likely be heavy duty storms, so look out for next week. 

The Space Shuttle will be landing tomorrow afternoon at about 12:55pm, but unfortunately the landing opportunities will not be over our area, mainly over Central America and then the extreme southeastern Gulf.  But the International Space Station should be visible locally during the evening hours into the weekend.  Check out the listing of sighting opportunities at NASA’s site.

Heavy duty storms are pounding the area as we write…keep it tuned to KATC for the latest.  Still some scattered storms possible tomorrow, but we remain on track for drier and hotter weather for the end of the week and into the weekend.

A tropical atmosphere has enthralled Acadiana engendering plenty of tropical showers and thunderstorms.  You may have noticed the sky has turned a deeper shade of blue while the towering cumulus clouds seem extra bright white.  This is actually a cleaner, less polluted atmosphere of tropical origin.  Generally tropical atmospheres exhibit less in the way of severe weather, but they can drop 2-3” inches of rain in little more than 30 or 40 minutes.  I would expect more of the same tomorrow, but storm motion should be a little slower leading to a greater possibility of some street flooding so be on the look out.  Like today, I would expect in and out sunshine in between tropical downpours.  And like today, it will feel like a sauna when the sun comes back out as our dew points are well-planted in the mid-70s.  On the plus side, our sunsets are usually quite dramatic in a tropical atmosphere, as activity dies down by 700pm with debris clouds and a couple of towering cumulus clouds making for serene conditions at the end of the day. 

Change is on the way for Wednesday as a frontal boundary will drop through the area by Wednesday night with the risk of hefty storms again Wednesday afternoon.  Decidedly drier air will move into the region for Thursday into the weekend as a ridge of high pressure develops.  This in turn will give us much more sun while temperatures climb into the mid-90s…just in time for the “official” beginning of summer which will be Thursday at 1:06pm.    

It was another wet day across many spots in Acadiana with several inches of rain and localized street flooding in spots across area.  More splash and dash showers and storms are in the forecast this weekend but the risk of getting wet should go down a little, especially for Sunday.  Away from the storms look for partly to mostly cloudy skies with highs near 90 tomorrow and the lower 90s for Sunday.  A surge of tropical moisture emanating from the Gulf, and ultimately the Caribbean, should arrive early next week with highs rain chances likely at least Monday through Wednesday.  Have a good weekend!