An upper disturbance in Texas will move eastward tomorrow engendering a better chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The showers and storms will likely be most active during the main daytime heating hours (between 10am and 5pm). Some storms could be on the healthy side, but right now I’m not expecting any organized, or widespread severe storms. Upper level winds and cold conditions aloft could allow for some gusty winds in and near the storms and the slight risk of some small hail. Scattered showers will again be possible Wednesday with high pressure likely to reassert itself over the region later this week. This in turn should knock the rain chances down to 20% or less late in the week and into the front end of the weekend.Â
The longer range models have been consistent about tropical moisture and lower pressure pooling in the Southern/Southeastern Gulf sometime next week. Although there is currently no area of concern in the Caribbean nor the Gulf the models seem to grabbing onto Pacific tropical moisture, dragging across Mexico/Central America and then develop this system as it moves northeastward during the last few days of May. Unfortunately, it is that time of year again. NOAA will be issuing their hurricane forecast tomorrow, and based on what we have been already hearing from Dr. Gray et al, I’d be willing to bet NOAA will forecast between 15-19 tropical storms, 8-10 hurricanes and 4-5 intense storms in the Atlantic Basin this year…basically a continuation of the active hurricane cycle that we have been in, with no El Nino to help us this year. I’ve been doing some statistical analysis on activity just in the Gulf of Mexico over the last 11 years, since the upswing in tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin, and I will present what I find over the next few days so stay tuned.