KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

More splash and dash showers and storms are in the forecast…and once again, expect a couple of inches of rain in a few hot spots, with isolated 3-5” amounts possible.  Today’s graphic depicts where the doppler estimated the heaviest activity occurred through 5pm today with a stripe of 1-2 inches from New Iberia to Lafayette.  Isolated areas of 3-4” were found just to the southeast of New Iberia and in and around the Youngsville/Broussard area to near St Martinville.  Plenty of tropical moisture will stay with us through Thursday with a gradual decrease in instability and available moisture for Friday.  There continues to be a lack of any surface focusing mechanism so it is impossible to say who will be lucky or unlucky with respect to heavy rainfall tomorrow and Thursday.  Drier more stable air will move in for the weekend which will translate to more sunshine and hotter temperatures. Daytime highs this weekend into early next week will be pushing into the lower 90s.  Unfortunately the humidity will stick around this weekend, but lower humidity could move in for mid-next week. So expect wet and soggy conditions in the near-term with summer heat moving in and staying with us this weekend (and probably for the next three months).

On and off showers and storms will stay in the forecast over the next several days.  A tropical conduit of moisture from the Gulf will interact with a series of nearly stationary disturbances aloft to produce widespread clouds, showers and storms.  Fortunately there is no real focusing mechanism at the surface to concentrate the storms, but storms will be slow moving and the atmosphere will not change a whole lot through at least Thursday.  So rain totals will likely be in the 3-6” range through the end of the week with isolated spots possibly catching more than double that.  The National Weather Service may raise a flood watch if the rains stay persistent, and the grounds saturate…which I think they will.  Be on the look out for at least localized street flooding over the next several days.  This pattern will stay with us through the end of the week with high pressure re-establishing for the weekend.  So do expect more sunshine and thus warmer temperatures this weekend.   There will still be the chance of afternoon storms, but instead of the 60-80% for the rest of the week we’ll be looking at closer to a 20-30% chance of getting wet.  Thanks to the wet pattern our daytime highs will be limited to the upper 70s to lower 80s this week while highs will be near 90 as we head into the weekend.

It was a quiet day until about 5pm when isolated storms developed. None of the storms turned severe before raining out with the loss of daytime heating. We can expect the same conditions for Sunday and Memorial Day. By Tuesday and upper level low moves out of the Gulf and stalls over us through Thursday. This will bring heavy rain for those days and rainfall accumulations could be quite high.

The National Weather Service has been sending out messages to help prepare for hurricane season.

…HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS SEVEN…TAKE ACTION…

THIS PAST WEEK…THE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS BEEN
PROVIDING YOU WITH INFORMATIVE STATEMENTS ON TROPICAL STORM AND
HURRICANE PREPARATION.

NOW IS THE TIME TO ASSEMBLE YOUR DISASTER SUPPLY KIT BEFORE HURRICANE
SEASON STARTS. THIS INCLUDES ASSEMBLING YOU DISASTER SUPPLY KIT AND
WRITING OUT YOUR FAMILY DISASTER PLAN.

ONCE A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED…CHECK YOUR
DISASTER SUPPLY KIT AND ACTIVATE YOUR FAMILY DISASTER PLAN.

ONCE A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED…READY YOUR
DISASTER SUPPLY KIT FOR USE AND USE YOUR FAMILY DISASTER PLAN.

Expect lots of sunshine Saturday and a few more clouds Sunday as high pressure stays in charge.  Rain chances will be minimal tomorrow and Sunday but there will be a few isolated afternoon/early evening showers.  Otherwise look for highs to continue in the mid-upper 80s with lows staying in the mid-upper 60s.  Interestingly enough, the high resolution visible satellite imagery showed some smoke at about 10,000ft moving in from the east late this afternoon.  This smoke emanates from the fires over southern Georgia and northern Florida and will likely contribute to hazy skies here over the weekend.  The smoke layer may also help to inhibit most shower activity through Sunday.  A change will occur Monday as tropical moisture in the southern Gulf will make a move our way so afternoon storms will become more likely for late Monday.  The upper disturbance that will sit over Texas this weekend will drift slowly eastward next week allowing for high rain chances and the threat for heavy rains next week.  This time of year when you combine deep tropical moisture with a slow moving disturbance, it usually spells flooding somewhere along the Gulf coast, so we’ll be watching these features closely for next week.  Have a great and safe holiday weekend!

Another round of hefty storms moved through the area earlier today.  Strongest activity developed over the Basin and then traveled southwestward across St Martin and then Vermilion Parishes.  I’ve seen this happen numerous times over the years…when a developing storm has a little extra instability aloft, drifts westward across the swamp and then meets additional instability from heating over the land areas in central Upper St Martin Parish.  The result is usually strong downdrafts anywhere from near Butte La Rose southward to Catahoula, Coteau Holmes and then Parks.  Today wind damage occurred near Catahoula with a number of mobile homes heavily damaged, carports and trampolines tossed, and fairly large trees snapped.  Based on the video assessment this afternoon, it looked like at least 80mph winds.  Rainfall rates of 2-3” per hour occurred once again across portions of St Martin and Vermilion Parishes today. 

As mentioned yesterday, the weak upper system should enhance our rain chances for one more day as high pressure to the northeast pushes this system back into Texas.  Therefore, our rain chances should go down for Friday into the weekend while temperatures climb back into the mid-upper 80s.  Another disturbance, or part of the same one, should push eastward back out of Texas early next week with rain chances going back up.  This may set the stage for another nice cool front late next week…so keep your fingers crossed!   

The previously advertised upper level disturbance produced very heavy rainfalls across portions of Acadiana this afternoon.  The graphic to the left highlights better than 3 inches of rain across portions of Lafayette, Vermilion and St Martin Parishes today.  The upper disturbance will stall over the area overnight through tomorrow and then should get pushed back to the west as high pressure along the east coast banks in from the north and east.  That means another good shot of scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow.  Since activity will be slow moving, I would expect isolated pockets of several inches of rain once again.  So keep the umbrella handy and be on the look out for more street flooding.  Thursday high pressure will continue to build in from the east lowering our rain chances closer to 30% and then 20% or less for Friday and Saturday.  Tropical moisture may surge northward from the Gulf early next week allowing for the possibility of juicy rain chances again.  Right now the weekend looks good but expect a few late afternoon storms Sunday with scattered activity more likely for Monday. 

As expected, NOAA issued their 2007 hurricane forecast, confirming what is expected to be a busy season.  What does mean for us along the Gulf of Mexico?  I did some research and I’ll talk more about this tonight at Acadiana’s NewsChannel 10pm.

An upper disturbance in Texas will move eastward tomorrow engendering a better chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  The showers and storms will likely be most active during the main daytime heating hours (between 10am and 5pm).  Some storms could be on the healthy side, but right now I’m not expecting any organized, or widespread severe storms.  Upper level winds and cold conditions aloft could allow for some gusty winds in and near the storms and the slight risk of some small hail.  Scattered showers will again be possible Wednesday with high pressure likely to reassert itself over the region later this week.  This in turn should knock the rain chances down to 20% or less late in the week and into the front end of the weekend. 

The longer range models have been consistent about tropical moisture and lower pressure pooling in the Southern/Southeastern Gulf sometime next week.  Although there is currently no area of concern in the Caribbean nor the Gulf the models seem to grabbing onto Pacific tropical moisture, dragging across Mexico/Central America and then develop this system as it moves northeastward during the last few days of May.  Unfortunately, it is that time of year again.  NOAA will be issuing their hurricane forecast tomorrow, and based on what we have been already hearing from Dr. Gray et al, I’d be willing to bet NOAA will forecast between 15-19 tropical storms, 8-10 hurricanes and 4-5 intense storms in the Atlantic Basin this year…basically a continuation of the active hurricane cycle that we have been in, with no El Nino to help us this year.  I’ve been doing some statistical analysis on activity just in the Gulf of Mexico over the last 11 years, since the upswing in tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin, and I will present what I find over the next few days so stay tuned.

Beautiful weather will stay with us into the weekend with low humidity, below normal temperatures and mostly sunny skies on tap.  After another cool start Sunday morning look for southeast winds to bring a return flow out of the Gulf of Mexico with highs pushing back into the mid-80s Sunday afternoon.  Fair to partly cloudy skies, higher humidity and very warm temperatures will return for much of next week with rain chances possible for Wednesday and or Thursday of next week.  I wouldn’t count on much in the way of a significant moisture event next week as we’ll be staying in a northwesterly flow aloft so any cells that do develop should be quick moving.  Daytime highs will be approaching 90 by mid-next week with not much in the way of any cooler air on the horizon, so enjoy what we have right now!  Have a good weekend.    

A nice late spring cool front is traversing the area late this afternoon.  Look for much more comfortable conditions and cooler air to move in for the rest of the week and stay with us through the weekend.  Actually some smoke from the Florida fires moved into the region yesterday with the haze persisting today.  Fortunately the cool front will clean the air and bring back blue skies, and provide slightly below normal temperatures into the weekend.  Look for daytime highs to be closer to the lower 80s over the next few days while overnight lows drop into the mid-upper 50s.  Moderating temperatures will begin for Sunday with partly cloudy and warmer conditions into next week.  Although there will be a slight risk of a few showers by mid-next week, I do not see a significant wet weather system for the rest of this month.  Enjoy the next few days!