KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

It was a beautiful one out there today with mostly sunny skies punctuated by high level cirrus clouds.  These cirrus clouds refracted the sun’s light in spots this afternoon garnering a lot of attention from our viewers.  Thanks to everyone that called, sent emails and forwarding pictures.  These high cirrus clouds are so far up in the atmosphere (20,000 to 35,000ft) that their temperature is about 35-40 below zero.  So the moisture in the clouds is in the form of ice crystals.  If you have a lot of similar size and shaped ice crystals, generally they are hexagons, it is possible to refract the sun’s light and yield bright spots or colors of the rainbow…just like a prism.  These are also called “sun dogs”.  Today we had several different orientations of cirrus clouds that produced different size, shaped and colored sun dogs.  Many times, in the winter especially, we will see a uniform cirrus cloud deck.  This is when we see a halo around the sun, or at night around the moon.  There is also much weather folklore and fact about halos around the sun and moon.  Growing up in New York if you saw a ring around the moon in the winter it invariably meant that snow would follow within 24 hours.  In West Texas, it generally means that a dust storm will be coming.  These are both excellent observations as cirrus shields usually are the first sign of a gathering storm system.  In Louisiana, you can usually count on a chance of rain to follow within a day or so…and that’s what we expect for tomorrow night. 

Currently a storm system in the Four Corners area of the Southwest will move rapidly eastward as it gets caught up in the jet stream.  Showers and a few storms will be possible mainly late tomorrow night.  There could be enough vigor with this system to produce a slight risk of severe weather, but at this point it shouldn’t be much of a risk.  Nonetheless, some storms, especially north of Acadiana could contain gusty winds and hail.  This system should be out of here by midday Wednesday with the “smooth sailing” button depressed for the rest of the week and into the weekend.  Expect lots of sunshine and warm temperatures in the low-mid 80s Thursday through Sunday.    

Titan 3D is lit up this evening with three large tornado watch boxes and a couple of severe thunderstorm watches.  Meanwhile farther to the north and west there are winter storm warnings for up to a foot of snow over portions of Colorado and Kansas.  This big storm system will be a major severe weather-maker tonight through tomorrow with significant tornadoes a distinct possibility over portions of the plains from northeast Texas eastward.  The Storm Prediction Center has a moderate to high risk of severe weather over a large area including portions of Louisiana to just north of the 1-10 corridor.  This storm system will also be a major storm for the east coast and will eventually become a significant “nor’easter”.  For us it’s going to mean the threat of severe storms developing by morning.  Upper level dynamics are looking quite tornadic, but mainly across the central and northern part of the state.  So be prepared for the possibility of storms producing rotating damaging winds, torrential downpours, frequent lightning and the possibility of hail by morning.  In addition, there may be a couple of isolated tornadoes close to home.  The greatest risk of the nasty storms will come to Acadiana after 200am ending by noon.  Some positive things that will be in our favor to mitigate the storm potential will be that the bulk of the activity will come during the morning hours which will limit daytime heating and the extent that strong winds aloft will mix down to the surface.  Plus, cooler water near shore in the Gulf could also help to throw a blanket on the severity of the storms.  Strong wind dynamics may overcome the aforementioned factors so the bottom line is that we will be watching this one closely…so keep it tuned to KATC for the latest.  We’ll have Power Doppler 3000 and Titan 3D on live, continuously throughout the night and Kari Hall and I will be cutting in with updates as needed.

The storms should come to an end by mid-tomorrow afternoon with clearing, breezy and cooler conditions working into the region tomorrow night and Sunday.  Sunday and Monday look beautiful, and most of Tuesday shouldn’t be too bad.  But another vigorous storm system will make a move across the area by late Tuesday into Tuesday night which could bring us another round of rain and storms, with severe weather possible again…not much rest in the Weather Lab!

Changes are on the way as we head into the weekend as a strong storm system developing in the Southwest U.S. will produce big snows in the Rockies and Great Plains and several rounds of severe weather across the nation’s mid-section Friday and this weekend. Acadiana will see partly cloudy, windy and warm conditions Friday with increased cloud cover developing into tomorrow evening.  Showers and thunderstorms will be likely very late Friday night into early Saturday.  There should be a moderate risk of severe weather with this system across the northern part of the state with much of Acadiana hatched in for a slight risk of severe storms toward Saturday morning.  The storms early Saturday will be capable of producing damaging winds and/or an isolated tornado.  I’ll have more about this weather system tomorrow.  After the storms it should be smooth sailing into next week with sunny, breezy and cooler conditions likely for Sunday.  Lots of sunshine is on tap for early next week with a slight chance of showers midweek.

It was a very busy day which started at midnight when the storms moved inland from the Gulf. Frequent lightning and heavy rain were accompanied by the storms as they became more numerous over Acadiana. After about 14 hours of heavy rain we were left with 2.38 inches of rain in Lafayette and radar estimates of 8 inches in parts of Jeff Davis and Acadia parish. Elsewhere we had from .50 inches to 5 inches. We even had a report of a funnel cloud near Parks at 1:30pm from the Office of Homeland Security. It finally cleared by 3pm and has moved east. This activity was produced by a warm front and tomorrow we’ll feel the effects. Temperatures will soar into the 80s in the afternoon. That is a big contrast to the upper 40s (for the high) we had over Easter weekend. A weak cold front Wednesday night will bring drier air for Thursday and early Friday before the next Pacific cold front still scheduled for Saturday.

Enjoy your week!

Kari Hall

After an unusually cold Easter weekend, it’s beginning to warm up. Increasing cloudiness is hinting the approach of a warm front which will bump up the rain chances. Strong storms will be possible near the coast but inland will most likely experience moderate rain which should be ending by the evening. The warm front will bring temperatures in the 80s for Wednesday through Friday before a cold front moves through Friday night into Saturday.

Kari Hall

I did more research today and if our high on Sunday will be less than 57 degrees, it will be the coldest Easter over the last 60 years.  In addition, the record coldest high on any April 8th is 55 set back in 1939.  It’s normally good meteorological policy not to forecast a record, but the way things look right now it appears to be a done deal.  Our Saturday should be just plain old cloudy, breezy and cool with highs only in the mid-50s.  The Saturday night through Sunday morning period is the tricky part of the forecast with patchy light rain/drizzle likely.  Temperatures for Saturday night should drop into the mid-upper 30s and with breezy north winds we should see wind-chills close to the upper 20s!  The computer models and expected atmospheric conditions may be conducive for some sleet to be mixed in with the patchy light rain, especially into interior portions of Southeast Texas through Central Louisiana.  I wouldn’t be surprised if we get reports of some sleet in Allen, Evangeline and St Landry parishes by Sunday morning; it will be way too warm for anything to stick.  In addition, even though we may see mid-30s for Sunday morning (and maybe Monday morning), most of our plants should survive as warm ground temperatures will keep the first six inches off the ground mild…but by all means cover the tomato plants et al if we start talking lower 30s for Sunday morning…but I don’t think we will get that cold.  High temperatures Sunday will be hard-pressed to reach the 50 degree mark with lows dropping into the upper 30s to near 40 for Monday morning. 

Next week looks much milder with highs reaching the 60s Monday and 70s or better in the forecast from here on out.  It will certainly be a memorable Easter weekend due to the cold, and at least we get to use the winter weather gear one more time.   

It will likely be the coldest Easter in more than 30 years as a secondary surge of winter-like air will make a run for Acadiana this weekend.  I went back through the last 30 Easter dates to check on previous highs and lows and found that the warmest Easter since 1977 was 91 degrees on April 19, 1987 while the coldest was a low of 37 with a high of 67 on April 7, 1996.  In addition, only 6 out of the last 30 years have we recorded rain.  This year it looks like highs won’t make it out of the 50s while I also expect patchy light rain to develop late Saturday with rain continuing into Sunday morning.  Believe or not, there may even be some sleet mixed in with the rain across interior portions of Texas into Central Louisiana, but I am not expecting a significant winter weather event.  With brisk north to northeast winds over the weekend it will certainly feel more like January than April.  At least there should be a nice warm-up for next week with 80s possible by mid-week.  In the near-term our Friday should be nice and sunny with highs reaching the upper 60s for tomorrow afternoon.

Much cooler air continues to spill into the region in the wake of the frontal boundary that came to a grinding halt in the offshore waters this afternoon.  The clouds will gradually thin out tomorrow morning with mostly sunny skies expected for the afternoon.  A reinforcing shot of cool air will move in for the weekend with high clouds likely returning Saturday followed by an overrunning scenario for Saturday night into Sunday.  Overrunning occurs mostly in the winter time around here, and can be described as warm moist air the overrides a dome of cool and relatively stable air.  This usually translates to light to moderate rain and we’ll probably see that for Easter Sunday.  The best dynamics should be along the coast where the best chance of rain will be.  But as of today I’ve raised the rain chances up to 40% for Sunday…hopefully the numbers will go lower, but they could go higher especially if we continue to see model to model run consistency.  Chilly temperatures will be the big story this weekend with highs hard-pressed to make 60 degrees with blustery northerly winds to continue.  Night time temperatures may be close to flirting with record territory which will be around 40 degrees!  The coldest air this weekend will be ear-marked for the northeastern Gulf States into the SE U.S. and along the mid-Atlantic.  This will be bad news for the agricultural community with crops from peaches to cherries taking a hit.  Next week looks warmer.