After a stellar weekend, the weather pattern has changed little for today, but expect a gradually increase in clouds and humidity over the next few days. Active weather to our west should stay there as an upper disturbance slowly weakens as it moves northeastward, well north of our area. I would however expect a general increase in high cloudiness for late tomorrow with more clouds likely mid-late this week. Hu
midity will also be on the rise as a deeper fetch of Gulf moisture will get dragged across the area. Eventually a few showers will be possible later this week and into early next week but rain chances shouldn’t be too high. In addition to higher humidity, temperatures will be nearing the 90 degree mark this weekend so it looks like it will feel quite summer like for the first weekend in May. Check out the National Weather Service’s latest issue of Jambalaya, pretty cool stuff, including the tornado plot from the past winter and the association to El Nino.
Archive for April, 2007
Some Subtle Changes Ahead
It’s been a great weekend for the festival with lots of sunshine and warm temperatures. Hopefully you had a chance to enjoy the weather. High pressure and dry air stays with us through Tuesday before moisture begins to increase and clouds move in. We will be dealing with two troughs this week, one passing north late Tuesday and the other later in the workweek. Right now severe weather doesn’t look like an issue but some isolated storms may be strong. Low pressure will keep a chance of rain in the forecast for a few days before clearing out by next weekend.
In the next few days, as we get a return flow, there will be a better chance fog will be an issue in the morning of Monday and Tuesday.
Enjoy your week!
Beautiful weather is anticipated for our big Festival International weekend with lots of sunshine Friday, fair to partly cloudy skies Saturday and mostly sunny skies anticipated for Sunday. Temperatures will reside in the low-mid 80s through Sunday while overnight lows dip into the upper 50s tonight and tomorrow night. Temperatures for evening festivities will be perfect in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Bring the sun block or a hat if you have any outdoor plans this weekend, as the sun this time of year begins to get fierce.Â
Rainfall from yesterday evening’s storms brought generally .50 to 1.00’†to the area, but there was a healthy stripe of one to three inches from northern Vermilion Parish through the central and southern part of Lafayette Parish to more than 3-5 inches in parts of St Martin Parish. The next 7-10 days look rather dry so hopefully we can stretch the moisture we received for a few weeks. Â
Strong Evening Storms
Strong storms moving through this evening will be moving out overnight with no incidences of severe weather. Rainfall amounts in some areas were anywhere from 0.5†to over 2†with the heaviest rain northwest of Acadiana. These storms were moving along a cold front originating out of the Pacific. Thursday much more pleasant weather will be moving in but temperatures won’t cool much. High pressure will keep us sunny through the weekend with highs in the 80s so it looks great for Festival International.
Check out this article in astronomy news:
April 25, 2007, 9:05 AM PDT
For the first time, astronomers say they’ve found a planet outside our solar system that could potentially sustain life.
Researchers are calling the discovery a big step in the search for “life in the universe.”
The new discovery has Earth-like temperatures, and might have water. In galactic terms, it’s relatively close, a mere 120 (t) trillion miles away. The star it orbits, known as a “red dwarf,” is much smaller and dimmer than our sun.
There’s still a lot that is unknown about the new planet. An astronomer on the European team that found the planet calls it a “nice discovery,” but adds, “We still have a lot of questions.”
The research has not yet been published, but has been submitted to the journal Astronomy and Astrophysics.
Big Spring Storms
Nasty storms have been ripping across the Plains States this afternoon as the potent storm system over Colorado is making its move to the east. Showers and thunderstorms will likely develop in our area for late Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours. There may be a severe weather risk with the storms that move through Acadiana, but the main impetus with this system should bypass us to the north. Some thunderstorms however may be capable of producing isolated pockets of damaging winds, so we’ll be watching this one closely. Do expect this storm system to be a big
news maker over the next 24-36 hours with a couple of big tornadoes and large hail-producing storms likely from Texas tonight spanning north and eastward through tomorrow. Rain totals in Acadiana should be an inch or less but a few isolated areas my see a little more than that. Very heavy rains will likely be focused over Eastern Texas into the northwestern part of our state with 3-5 inches possible to our north and west. Skies will clear after midnight tomorrow night with mostly sunny and pleasant conditions likely for Thursday and Friday. The computer models continue to send a mixed message for this weekend with respect to rain chances.  Right now we’ll go with partly cloudy and warm conditions with very slight rain chances.
A Gathering Storm
Look for another partly cloudy, breezy and warm day for Tuesday. There may be an isolated shower or two Tuesday but rain chances should increase nicely into Wednesday. Another big storm system rolling out of the Rockies tonight will likely be a big severe weather-maker in tornado alley Tuesday into Wednesday. This system should drag a weakening frontal boundary into the region Wednesday allowing for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Organized strong storms may be possible Wednesday as we are hatched for a slight risk of severe storms. I’ll have more on this tomorrow so stay tuned…although there may be a slight chance of an isolated shower early Thursday, the rest of the week into the weekend are looking good with fair to partly cloudy skies, warm conditions and very slight rain chances should be with us late this week into the weekend. We look to have classic Festival International weather!Â
Check out the images we highlighted on our newscasts this evening…and get out the 3-D glasses. NASA has produced 3D images and movies of the sun to show how our nearest star behaves…wild stuff! Pass the popcorn!
Clear Skies and Falling Stars
High pressure continues to keep us high and dry through the next couple of days. Tonight the Lyrid Meteor shower will be taking place. The best time to watch for meteors will be between 1:00-3:00am Sunday morning. Well away from city lights you may see about 15 per hour. Clouds will not be a problem so hopefully you will get a great view.
The forecast for the next few days begins to change as early as Tuesday when moisture increases ahead of a front. A few afternoon showers may be possible but rain chances still stay slight through Thursday morning when the front passes. We will clear out Friday before the next front.
Enjoy your weekend!
The Forecast, The Bahamas Hurricane Conference & Earth Day
Our great weather will last several more days with fair to partly cloudy skies tomorrow into the weekend with highs near 80. Warmer temperatures and higher humidity are expected for next week with the next good chance of rain coming by next Thursday.Â
Check out Meteorologist Dave Baker’s reports from the Bahamas Weather Conference tonight and tomorrow. As always interesting stuff coming from the conference…check out the podcasts on the Bahamas website…Dr. Gray, Max Mayfield et al talk about the upcoming hurricane season and global warming issues.
 Saturday’s weather should be nice, so come out and celebrate Earth Day with me. I’ll be presenting issues on global climate change at 11:00am at Vermilionville. It will be fun for the whole family. Here’s the press release.
 Lafayette Earth Day Family Festival Presented By Bayou Vermilion District
LAFAYETTE – Bring the family out to discover nature for the Lafayette Earth Day Family Festival held at Vermilionville on Saturday, April 21 from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. This fun festival will feature music, crafts for kids made out of natural or recycled materials, a plant swap, a fact-scavenger hunt, environmental presentations and more. Water activities include boat tours, canoe trips and a children’s fishing rodeo. KATC TV-3 meteorologist Rob Perillo will be the key-note speaker of the day. There will also be environmental booths and exhibits. And, of course Vermilionville’s restaurant, La Cuisine de Maman, will have delicious treats and eats for purchase. The Lafayette Earth Day Family Festival is presented by the Lafayette Parish Bayou Vermilion District. Admission is $5 for adults, $3 for children (6 –18), and under 6 is free. For more information call the Bayou Vermilion District at 237-8360 or visit www.bayouvermilion.org.
Another Global Warming Factor?
Our weather will be on crusie control into the weekend…so enjoy.  The following was an interesting story published in the most recent issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Just another example of how complicated our atmosphere/biosphere is and how other things, other than carbon dioxide, can influence global temperature and circulation…Â
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REEXAMINING THE EFFECTS OF BURNING FORESTS Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
Most scientists concur that the recent increase in global temperÂatures has been especially proÂnounced at the poles. One very noticeable effect is that high-latitude, or boreal, forests have been particularly susceptible to fires in recent years. ResearchÂers studying the climatic impact of fires in Earth’s northern forÂests, however, recently made the unexpected discovery that for a long period of time following these fires, global temperatures will drop. This contradicts the predictions of many who believe that increased carbon released from the fires into the atmoÂsphere will have a warming efÂfect, and that this warming will lead to more fires, creating a potentially runaway cycle.
The new study, however, found that while the short-term effect of the fires is the expected increase in temperature, the long-term effect is the growth of great amounts of deciduous trees, which have large, light-colored leaves that reflect sunlight, more than offsetting the carbon effect and eventually leading to cooler temperatures. In addition, these new trees lose their leaves during the winter, leaving exposed snow on the ground that also reflects sunlight and contribÂutes to the cooling effect.
The research, which is disÂcussed in a recent issue of Science, focused on the 1999 Donnelly Flats fire in Alaska , which burned almost 19,000 acres. The species of tree most affected by the Donnelly fire was the black spruce, which has thin, dark needles. The scientists found that the majority of the trees that grew immediately after the fire were aspen, birch, and other deciduous trees, which have larger, lighter leaves than the black spruce. Computer models reveal that immediately after the fire, the release of carbon caused an increase in temperature, but within 10-15 years, a cooling effect takes place. Although the black spruce will eventually re-grow, it will take a very long time for them to become so prevalent that they again influence temperatures.
Quick Changes Near-Term & Global Warming = Less Hurricanes?
Scattered showers, perhaps a thunderstorm will be possible later tonight as our quick-moving system screams through the region later tonight. Rain chances should end by morning with mostly sunny skies to return for Wednesday afternoon. Activity will be scattered in nature tonight and will be moving quick enough that I’m not expecting significant rain amounts. There could be a couple of heavier thunderstorms however across the northern parishes of Acadiana. Thursday through the weekend will bring mostly sunny and warm weather with highs near 80 through Friday and into the mid-80s this weekend into early next week. The next significant chance of rain after tonight will be mid-next week…and right now it looks rather intense for next Wednesday and Wednesday night.Â
In global warming news, a contradictory report to others that have asserted that global warming equals more and more intense hurricanes. Not so according to the report issued today. More debates on this subject will likely come…stay tuned for more!