KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

The luck-o-the Irish is with us this weekend as we can expect unlimited sunshine (exactly 12 hours of it at that) for tomorrow.  A few high and mid clouds will be possible in Sunday as we begin to see a return flow out of the Gulf of Mexico.  After a cool start to our Saturday morning look for a nice warm up into the upper 60s with light and variable winds.  Sunday should be a tad bit warmer with highs reaching the lower 70s under fair to partly cloudy skies.  Next week will be spring-like just in time for the vernal equinox with partly cloudy, breezy and warm conditions through midweek.  Highs will be reaching near 80 after Monday with widely scattered showers possible Wednesday into Thursday.  The long range models are indicating that there will probably be a good chance of showers and storms by late in the week or into next weekend.  In the near term, enjoy. 

I often get asked do I ever hear from Dick Faurot.  We stay in touch and get to see each other on rare occasion.  Dick remains one of the finest people you will meet in the broadcast business…if it weren’t for his great meteorological knowledge, professionalism and presentation, I’m not sure I would have ever considered a job in TV weather.  Dick has been plugging away at KOTV in Tulsa, Oklahoma and when he’s not tracking winter storms or tornadoes, he’s…you guessed it…fishing!  Dick knows that I’m a space shuttle/space station buff and forwarded me these cool pictures of the space shuttle launch last September as seen from the International Space Station. The space station should be visible in Acadiana over the next few mornings in the pre-dawn hours.  Have a good weekend.

The Flood Watch continues for Acadiana this evening.  The upper low is finally making its move with another strong meso-convective complex edging into the area.  It appears at this time that the strongest storms will be along the coastal parishes, but with the cold upper low moving overhead later tonight, just about anyone could see strong storms.  The greatest risk of nasty weather in addition to the heavy rainfall and lightning will be gusty winds and hail.  The storm complex that is moving out of southeast Texas has had a history of producing some hail so we’ll be watching this closely this evening so keep it tuned to KATC.  Several convective complexes have weakened as they moved into Louisiana over the last 24 hours, and this current system should do the same, but again there will be the risk of heavy duty storms through the predawn hours.  You can expect several inches of rain in the hot spots tonight (especially coastal parishes) with rainfall amounts for most of us staying in the one inch range.  Drier air will work its way into the region tomorrow afternoon with rain chances diminishing after morning.  Friday and the weekend are looking fair and cooler with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s while lows dip down into the mid-upper 40s

A Flood Watch has been posted for Acadiana for Wednesday afternoon and evening in response to the slow moving upper low in Texas.  The main dynamics with this system will begin arriving by the afternoon hours of Wednesday and will likely stay with us through Wednesday night.  Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts are indicating at least 1-3 inches of rain, but as usual we may see some hot spots in the 3-5 inch range.  As we have been saying over the last several days, these systems are incredibly hard to pinpoint the axes of heavier rains, but plan on plenty of wet weather tomorrow afternoon with more periods of rain and storms likely through the pre-dawn hours of Thursday.  There will also be a slight severe weather risk with the possibility of storms producing damaging winds and hail.  As this upper low moves into the region it will be weakening, but as the core of the upper low approaches cold air aloft may lead to a fairly good risk of large hail and gusty downburst winds.  I wouldn’t be surprised if we eventually get a few isolated reports of golf ball size hail sometime tomorrow night…stay tuned.  The nasty weather should come to an end Thursday with lingering showers and storms possible mainly during the morning hours.  A cool front on Friday may spark off a few showers, but then the weekend is looking good with mostly sunny skies.  Daytime temperatures will stay in the mid-upper 70s through Friday cooling into the lower 70s this weekend.  

Our weather pattern will stay rather unsettled as an upper low in West Texas will be slow to move over the next several days.  Expect plenty of clouds with on and off showers and storms through midweek.  Best rain chances for Tuesday appear to be during the afternoon with the strongest dynamics expected for tomorrow night into Wednesday.  Highest rain chances are therefore expected toward Wednesday with lingering showers possible for Thursday, but by that time the axis of the instability will be moving eastward.  Rainfall totals are going to be hard to estimate, but a few inches of rain will be likely before the end of the week, with most of it coming on Wednesday.  Nice weather should return by Friday with cooler conditions and partly cloudy skies expected for the weekend.    

A dense fog advisory is in effect once again for parishes along I-10 and south. By 10am, the fog will have dissipated and sunshine will dominate in the afternoon. Clouds will be increasing in the evening which will keep the dense fog from developing tomorrow night. There will be a chance of scattered rain Monday evening ahead of the next slow moving low pressure system. High pressure over Mississippi is causing the stalling of the front but it will hesitantly move east by Tuesday allowing for the low to pass north of Acadiana. Our rain chances will increase due to the instability of the atmosphere but the worst of the weather looks to be in Texas and Arkansas. Rain chances will stay with us through the week because of the slow movement of the front. It will all clear out in time for next weekend.

Don’t forget to set your clock ahead one hour at 2:00am. Sunrise will be at 7:23am and sunset at 7:12pm.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend!

Look out for fog again for Friday morning, and we may see it again during the early morning hours this weekend.  A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the I-10 parishes and to the south.  A weak upper disturbance should breeze on through tomorrow possibly producing more high clouds, but overall our Friday should be a nice one…at least in the afternoon.  Our skies will stay fair to partly cloudy through this weekend with highs continuing in the mid-70s.  Change is on the way for early next week but the specifics on how things will play out are still quite murky.  Computer models have been all over the place with solutions so confidence in the forecast for next week remains on the low side.  Look for scattered showers and some storms Monday, with a better chance of getting wet Tuesday, with a lingering shower or two possible Wednesday.  Although I’m not sure exactly when we’ll see our best chance of rain, it looks like we’ll have an opportunity for a soaking rain at some point Monday through Wednesday.  Stay tuned for more details…

I received this picture from a viewer in Lafayette that had a dust devil push through their property.  Fortunately no major damage but this little trouble-maker but it probably had 50mph winds!  It’s always something around here…even when the sun shines!  

The weather will remain nice and spring-like over the next few days with fair to partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures Thursday through Saturday.  At night there will be the risk of patchy dense fog or some low cloudiness, but the fog and clouds should burn off quickly during the day.  A weak upper disturbance will roll through Friday giving us a little more in the way of high clouds, but at this time I’m not expecting any significant precipitation.  As alluded to yesterday, our late weekend weather system remains a tricky one to forecast.  A stout upper low pressure system will approach from the northwest late Sunday while getting cut-off from jet stream winds.  In the past I’ve seen these systems produce very little in the way of rain, and have also seen them produce locally very heavy rains.  So the forecast remains a statistical hedge with ascattered showers and storms developing Sunday into Monday.  Since early February our rain totals have been about 50% of normal, so we could use the rain for our spring lawns and gardens, so hopefully we’ll get what we need.  At this time this system does not look like a severe weather maker, but we’ll re-evaluate this component again tomorrow too.  A sedate spring weather pattern will resume for mid-late next week.   

Our nice weather pattern will continue over the next few days with sunny and mild afternoons followed by fair and cool evenings.  Some patchy for will be possible over the next few nights, but right now I’m not expecting any major issues with fog until perhaps late in the week.  Our next weather-maker will come in for late this weekend where an upper low will move in as it gets cut-off from the jet stream.  This translates to a tricky forecast with respect to rain chances for Sunday into early next week.  The latest model run is more progressive than previous runs so for now I would say count on healthy rain chances for Sunday with lingering clouds and showers still possible by Monday.

Sunny skies will stay with us as high pressure and sinking air continues. A dry cold front this morning reinforced cool air and will allow temperatures overnight to dip to near freezing for Lafayette. Parishes north will touch freezing briefly just before sunrise. If you have sensitive plants you are worried about you may want to cover or bring them in. The workweek will get off to a nice start with highs in the mid 6os. We will continue to warm up and by Wednesday, it will be in the low 70s. Our next chance of rain will be next Sunday.

Skies stayed mostly clear for the Hermit Eclipse last night. The picture below is from Jay Faugot of the eclipse shortly after moonrise. Also the International Space Station was visible for 5 minutes. Our next chance for a sighting will be tonight at 7:01pm for 2 minutes.

 

A little more on the lunar eclipse for Saturday evening:  We will see an upper disturbance roll on through tomorrow which should bring more in the way of high cloudiness…hopefully these clouds will thin for tomorrow evening as the sun sets.  As the sun sets, the moon will rise in the east at 6:06pm.  The moon will already be behind the earth’s shadow and will be gradually emerging from the shadow as it rises higher in the sky.  Lunar eclipses are not that uncommon, but what makes this one possibly quite interesting is that the light from the moon will be altered by extra atmospheric refraction so depending on the upper atmospheric moisture and dust, we could see some very interesting hues of red, pink, orange and/or copper.  The high level clouds could completely shut us out from this event, or they could be thin enough to give us a neat show, or at least an interesting filtered effect.  And if it’s clear, at 6:38pm the International Space Station will be flying over head so we’ll get the added bonus.  Enjoy your viewing and the weekend, and watch out for the possibility of that Monday morning frost.