KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

A Hard Freeze Warning is in effect for the northern part of Acadiana tonight as temperatures will be below freezing, dipping into the mid-upper 20, for a relatively significant time.  A cloud deck will be moving through this evening and until that deck clears the area, we probably won’t drop below freezing.  I expect the clouds to clear by about 1-2am, and that’s when the coldest air will be delivered to the area.  Lots of sunshine and a shift in our winds to the west-southwest by late in the day will get our temperatures into the mid-upper 40s tomorrow.  A light freeze or at least frosty conditions are on tap for tomorrow night with milder conditions likely Saturday with highs in the lower 60s.  A weaker cold front will push through for Saturday evening, thus temperatures by Sunday morning could again be near the freezing mark.  Lot’s of sunshine is anticipated Sunday and Monday while the next weather system may get here a little sooner.   I’ve hedged on the Mardi Gras forecast introducing a 40% chance of getting wet, especially during the afternoon, with storms likely Tuesday evening into early Wednesday.  There may be the threat of severe weather with next week’s system so stay tuned for possible changes in timing and intensity of our next storm. 

I always get a number of inquiries about snow cover this time of year…some folks want to just take their kids to see snow, and then we have the serious skiers that are head to New Mexico, Colorado or Utah for the Mardi Gras break…here’s a link to a snow cover site that will give you a good idea about the white stuff.

Cold temperatures will lead to even colder conditions through the next 36 hours as arctic air envelopes the region. Look for lows tonight to drop into the lower 30s with breezy winds keeping wind chills in the 20s.  Mostly cloudy skies should prevail through midday tomorrow with a gradual thinning to fair conditions for Thursday night into Friday morning.  Highs will be in the 40s for Thursday and Friday with lows dropping into the mid-upper 20s for Friday morning…hopefully you haven’t planned the spring garden yet!  This may be winter’s last hurrah with milder temperatures anticipated for next week.  Lots of sunshine is expected Friday through Monday with clouds increasing and a few showers still possible for Mardi Gras.  Unfortunately it looks like another vigorous weather system is possible by Thursday of next week.  Following up on Monday night’s tornadoes, the National Weather Service has an updated web page encapsulating the severe weather event.

It certainly was a very rough night last night with dozens of heavily damaged or destroyed homes.  Hopefully you have been following our coverage of these storms.  Although we saw numerous storms that were considered supercell thunderstorms fortunately there were no fatalities.  Hardest hit was near Breaux Bridge in St Martin Parish, just to the south of town where at least a dozen homes were completely destroyed.  A home and with a family inside was tossed approximately 100 yards by an EF 2 (Enhanced Fujita Scale) tornado (about 110-120mph winds) but miraculously the family survived and didn’t discover what exactly happened until they opened their front door.  A total of 3 minor injuries were reported which is the best news we could report today.  The storms brought other tornadoes to Iberia, Vermilion and Lafayette parishes with an EF 1 verified near Youngsville and an EF 0 in Iberia Parish.  In addition, golf ball size hail was reported last night along with a number of other sporadic wind damage reports.  Check the NWS for the latest reports.  Thanks to Roger Erickson at the National Weather Service for doing a great job in post storm assessment.  

Now we are focusing on much colder weather, perhaps on par with the arctic outbreak we saw in early December.  The coldest air won’t get here until the latter part of Thursday into Friday morning with lows in the mid-upper 20 likely.  Tomorrow and Thursday will see a fair bit of cloudiness, with a little more sunshine for Thursday.  Highs will be confined to the 40s while lows dip to near freezing Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  The chilly weather will stay with us through the weekend with a good amount of much needed sunshine in the mix.  Milder weather will return for early next week but we can’t rule out a few isolated showers for Mardi Gras.

An intense squall line will advance through Acadiana later tonight with the possibility of severe storms through the early morning hours of Tuesday.  At press time a tornado watch is in effect for Acadiana through 11pm.  The main threat of severe storms will be after 9pm tonight continuing through about 2-3am in the morning.  Activity will be moving slowly from west to east so there will be the chance of an inch or two of rain.  Favorable severe weather wind profiles are expected tonight so there will be the threat of damaging winds, hail and the possibility of an isolated tornado.  Interestingly enough, of the numerous severe weather watches we have seen this past fall and winter, there has only been one or two events that did not yield severe weather, so don’t underestimate the storm potential for tonight and keep it tuned to KATC for the latest…I’ll get to put in some quality time with Power Doppler 3000 and Titan 3-D tonight.  The wet weather will end by morning with a few intervals of sunshine and mild temperatures expected for tomorrow.  Breezy and much colder air will move in for tomorrow night with highs being suppressed into the 40s and lows dropping to or below the freezing mark from Wednesday through the first part of the weekend.  Plenty of clouds will return by the latter part of Wednesday into Thursday but it looks like the next weather system for Thursday will miss us to the south, however I have put a 20% chance of some patchy light rain…or something else, in the forecast for Thursday.  Yes, it’s still winter!  Milder weather with slight rain chances are in the forecast this weekend with temperatures hopefully getting back into the 70s in time for Mardi Gras.

I have been surprised by how many ex-upstate New Yorkers that live in Acadiana!  I have taken a number of phone calls and emails from viewers from the world of “Lake Effect”.  Oswego NY picked up enough snow today to officially eclipse 6 feet since Sunday.  The picture you see here is circa 1980 looking northwestward into Lake Ontario (excuse the 110 camera).  A lake effect band is sitting just offshore.  This picture typifies how local this phenomenon can be with sunshine at the shoreline, but snow with snowfall rates in the 3 inch per hour category sitting about one mile offshore.  Lake effect bands typically top out no higher than 6 thousand feet, which is very low, but the snow can be so intense, especially during white outs, that the friction of the snow flakes can produce lightning and thunder…when you see and hear that, you know you’re in for a good foot in just a few hours.  The other picture is a much younger me, shoveling in January of 1984.  It was right about this time, maybe this picture, when I started to think about sending resumes south!  The biggest snow event I saw while living there was in the 50 inch range over a few days.  It’s hard to imagine that many spots have surpassed 8 feet in the last six days!

The cool air is descending upon Acadiana at press time with 70 degree temperatures taking a hiatus through the weekend.  Plenty of clouds and widely scattered showers will stay with us through midday tomorrow with overcast clouds thinning and breaking up somewhat for tomorrow night.  Saturday is looking partly sunny and cool with highs in the 50s.  It’s looking good for the Saturday Krewe of Rio Parade, but it will be quite chilly with parade temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s.  Clouds and milder temperatures will return for Sunday with scattered showers possible as our current front will be moving back to the north as a warm front.  Monday and Tuesday of next week will be back into the 70s, but we’ll probably see a good chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms on one or both of those days.  The winter chill will return by Wednesday of next week with limited sunshine possible late next week.  The pattern looks to remain unstable through the Mardi Gras holiday period with a good chance of storms possible sometime next weekend and again by Fat Tuesday or Ash Wednesday.  The forecast that far out will likely change, so as we say…”stay tuned for further updates”! 

The town in which my alma matter resides, Oswego NY, has been buried by lake effect snow this week.  Since Sunday, Oswego has seen 70 inches fall, with a number of spots in Oswego County receiving more than 110 inches in the last 5 days!  I went to Oswego State to study lake effect snow, and eventually lake effect was the reason I left!  Normally Oswego receives 144 inches of snow per year…higher than Buffalo, NY because unlike Lake Erie, Ontario almost never freezes, thus the snow machine stays up and running well into March.  Ontario doesn’t freeze because it’s a much deeper lake than Erie, thus it takes much more to freeze the lake, which has happened once, in 1933.  When very cold air travels over the relatively warmer lake, it picks up moisture and dumps it on the lee side of the lake.  As you travel farther to the east, into the elevated Tug Hill Plateau (the western part of the Adirondacks), orographic lifting makes the lake effect process more efficient with annual snow totals in excess of 300 inches possible.  This area receives the highest average annual snow amounts east of the Rockies.  Lake effect snow is very light (typical water ratio is 40 inches of snow to one inch of water, vs. the more typical of a 10:1 ratio) so it’s not hard to shovel, but when it piles up by the feet it’s another story.  The campus in Oswego has been closed for three days straight!  In my seven winters there, I only saw the school close for one day, so you know it’s got to be pretty bad…better there than here, although I know some folks who would beg to differ…let them shovel that stuff for a few weeks straight and they’d be singing a different tune!

Clouds will be increasing over the next few days with a few light showers possible Thursday through Saturday.  Thursday will continue to be mild with highs in the upper 60s but expect significantly cooler conditions Friday into Saturday with highs only in the 50s.  Warm air advection with an increasingly more active jet stream will be with us Sunday with rain and maybe even some storms likely by Sunday evening.  The dynamics may get on the strong side early next week so severe weather may also be possible.  Temperatures will be on a roller coaster ride with highs getting back into the 70s Monday, with cooling conditions likely again by Wednesday.  As we have been saying, this see-saw pattern will likely continue into the Mardi Gras holiday so keep a slicker handy in addition to your umbrella!

Another beautiful day is on tap for our Wednesday with seasonable warm temperatures expected during the afternoon.  It will stay warm for Thursday but clouds will begin to invade dulling the sun.  A cool front will bring in cooler conditions late Friday into the weekend with overrunning clouds and light showers possible through Sunday.  Early next week will get dynamic as the sub-tropical jet stream (pictured for next Tuesday) will be back overhead.   That means plenty of clouds and healthy rain chances, perhaps even heavy rains sometime early next week.  Unfortunately the jet may stay quite active through the big Mardi Gras weekend so plan on a few wet days during the big upcoming holiday.  It’s too early to tell which Mardi Gras days will be wet, but temperatures should be close to normal, in the upper 60s for highs with lows in the 40s and 50s…hopefully the forecast changes for the better!

We have certainly started the week on the right foot with mostly sunny skies and more seasonably temperatures.  The slow warming trend will continue through mid-week but high clouds will begin to invade by Thursday and stay with us for Friday.  Rain chances at best will be slight Thursday night into Friday and then again for Sunday into early next week.  Temperatures will warm into the upper 60s Tuesday and should make the 70 degree mark for Wednesday and perhaps Thursday.  We’ll see our temperatures cool again for Friday and the weekend but at this point I do not see any freezes over the next week to 10 days…but that doesn’t mean we’ve seen our last frost.  In fact we are capable of freezing temperatures through mid-March so I wouldn’t get to aggressive on your spring gardens quite yet.  We are also a few weeks away from weed and feed for the lawn.  My favorite time for that is usually the last week of February through the first couple of weeks in March.  In the near term, the next “significant” weather event should come by Tuesday into Wednesday of next week with a dose of some spring thunderstorm activity expected.     

The Subtropical jet stream is now out into the Gulf but is still kicking up a thick layer of cirrus clouds over the state. A very weak cold front will be moving through overnight. Our temperatures will not change much but we will finally be able to get a clear view of the sun by Monday afternoon. High pressure will stay with us through the week and as it moves east it will provide a weak return flow of winds providing warmer temperatures by mid-week.

Enjoy the sunshine!

Kari Hall