KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

We should expect mostly cloudy, breezy and mild conditions for tonight with about a 30% chance of scattered showers.  Our best rain chances should be during the morning through early afternoon hours with activity mostly just showers but a few isolated thunderstorms may be possible.  Although there is a very slight risk of severe weather locally, the strongest dynamics will be north of the area with a significant tornado outbreak likely tonight across the Plains migrating into the Southeast U.S. tomorrow.  Friday is still looking sunny and pleasant with highs in the low-mid 70s.   This weekend will be markedly cooler with some clouds likely for Saturday as an upper disturbance will be fooling the colder air.  Look for highs to be no warmer than the low-mid 60s this weekend with lows dipping into the upper 30s Sunday morning and mid-upper 30s for Monday morning.  There could be the risk of a frost Monday morning so spring gardners beware!

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued again for tonight.  Satellite imagery late this afternoon showed a distinctive patch of sea fog looming just offshore and it was drifting toward the coast at press time.  So expect morning fog tomorrow giving way to breezy and warm conditions for tomorrow afternoon.  A few isolated showers may develop under mostly cloudy skies late tomorrow afternoon with a better chance of scattered showers and a few storms tomorrow night into early Thursday.  Like Saturday’s weather system wind dynamics will be quite strong so there may be a slight risk of severe weather toward Thursday morning.  Right now it looks like our activity will be scattered in nature, so we aren’t going with more than 50% on the rain chances for Thursday.  Friday into the weekend looks great with mostly sunny and pleasant weather expected.  Cooler conditions will move in for the weekend with highs in the mid-60s accompanied by lows dropping into the mid-upper 30s for Sunday and Monday mornings.  Next week looks quite nice with seasonable spring temperatures.  Check out the way it looked in Texas with the high winds we saw last weekend.  This is a true dust storm reminiscent of some of the storms we have seen in the Middle East.  Also I want to thank Ann Autrey of Scott for forwarding this picture last night of the ring around the moon…if you take a great weather picture you can always send it to me at rob.perillo@katctv.com.  Who knows it may wind up here, or even “on air” for all of Acadiana to see!

Our weather will stay relatively benign until Wednesday afternoon with another mostly sunny and warm day for tomorrow.  Patchy fog could be a factor tonight and some sea fog could develop for early tomorrow night, but winds will pick up once again by Wednesday morning.  Another vigorous Plains storm system will develop Wednesday into Thursday engendering breezy southerly winds and producing a few isolated showers late Wednesday with scattered showers and storms possible Thursday.  Once again it looks like the strongest severe weather dynamics will stay to the north of us so we’ll just call for scattered activity, but the wind dynamics aloft may be strong enough to produce a couple of trouble-makers locally…stay tuned.  Like last weekend, activity will be initiating over us and then will get stronger north of Acadiana. 

Now for the “Global Warming Rant” portion of our blog today.  My feelings on the warming of our planet and it’s causes and possible mitigation aside, I heard on the Academy Awards last night as Al Gore was stepping up to receive his award that the film crew was scheduled to shoot in New Orleans just the day before Hurricane Katrina struck…”reminding us of how global warming is affecting us”.  First off, it is just plain wrong and incredibly misleading to say Katrina was a result of global warming.  Any “climatologist” or “global warming scientist” that says Katrina or the 1995-2005 upswing in Atlantic tropical activity was because of “global warming” likely has no scientific proof.  The most respected experts in tropical forecasting and future trends have indicated there has been no net increase in global tropical activity over the last 40 years, and recent trends specific to the Atlantic basin are tied directly to oceanic heat and salinity cycles.  The tropical experts also tell us in a hypothetical “warmer world” there may be a slight increase in intensity of storms by 5mph.  Does that make a Katrina or Rita that much worse?  Can you tell the difference between 130amph and 135mph winds?  I heard Dr. Heidi Cullen of the Weather Channel in December say that the anomalously warm weather that folks were feeling in the Midwest was directly attributed to global warming!  I challenge anyone to tell me they can feel .2 degree C increase per decade!  T

he global warming trend is indeed real but we cannot feel it as we step outside.  We as a planet will have to deal with many issues in the future, including sea level rise, and greater variability in weather patterns, etc.  However, things will not change overnight.  I find it very interesting that one of the real issues of how we’ll segue away from fossil fuels, especially in electrical generation, have not been talked about.  Nobody is talking about building many more nuclear power plants to supplant coal, shale and oil.  Wind and solar power can’t even put a dent into our needs.  And I can’t wait to hear the fight over where we’ll store spent radioactive fuel.  It’ll be interesting to see how the politicians treat this subject matter as we head toward a presidential election. 

The reality is that we live on a planet where we have consumed natural resources in developing our cultures and in industrialization.  Change is inherent to our lives.   The weather patterns will change, the climate will change.  Biodiversity will decrease in some areas while others species may flourish in a warmer world.  The ice caps may melt and the water will rise and incoming solar radiation will change.  And I’d be willing to bet the ice-caps will reform somewhere down the road.  We live on a constantly changing planet and we certainly have messed with things in the last 100 years, but I still don’t think we truly know where we’re going or how we can stop current trends.  And if we can purposely alter our climate, how much should we cool it?  We absolutely need to be more conscientious with our environment but there is no one solution.  I believe that the media has played a tremendous role in helping to identify the problems we face…but there also has been a heck of a lot of hype and emotional tugging too.  My soap box is now retired for the day!                   

Strong winds and scattered storms tried to ruin our Saturday but thankfully the severe weather stayed out of Acadiana. As expected, tornadoes and hail hammered northern Louisiana and other parts of the South while we experienced gusts over 30mph and brief showers. Overnight, dew points will be dropping as much drier air moves in after a Pacific cold front passes. Improved weather will be with us Sunday through most of the week as high pressure moves in.

Enjoy your week!

Kari Hall

Windy and warm weather will start our weekend while we remain on track for the possibility of severe storms for Saturday.  The Storm Prediction Center has us hatched in for a moderate risk for severe weather, which is a rare event for us.  Although there remains limited positive vorticity advection (turning tendency in the upper part of the atmosphere), increasing wind shear and veering with height tomorrow will offer Acadiana the possibility of wind damaging thunderstorms.  Surface winds will be quite gusty tomorrow with south winds increasing 20-30mph (check out our wind forecast maps) with gusts nearing the 40mph.  Aloft a low level southerly jet, at about 5000ft, will be near 65mph while at 30,000ft winds will veer to the west-southwest and increase to better than 100mph.  This set-up along with some daytime heating and mid-level dry air punch usually bodes well for wind-damaging storms, large hail and the possibility of an isolated tornado or two.  There will likely be a very significant tornado outbreak tomorrow starting near Central and Northern Louisiana spanning northeastward into much of Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama and western Tennessee.  Since October mother nature has delivered on just about every severe weather situation in Acadiana and unfortunately I think tomorrow will be no different.  Keep it tuned to KATC for the latest.   Mostly sunny and mild weather will return for the Sunday through Tuesday time-frame while the next storm system gathers by mid-week with strong storms a good bet again by Thursday.

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued as visibility has been dropping at press time across the coastal parishes.  Hopefully the fog will lift quicker tomorrow morning with an increasing easterly breeze.  Freshening winds from the east right around daybreak should lift the fog to a very low cloud deck so although surface visibility may improve, it could delay air travel plans early in the morning.  For you pilots, it will be LIFR through the early morning hours improving to IFR after 700 am and then MVFR by 8-9am.  Conditions will be slow to improve in the offshore areas.  We will see partly cloudy and breezy conditions tomorrow afternoon with highs reaching the mid-70s.  The winds will get kicking late tomorrow with E/SE winds increasing into the 10-20mph range by evening.  It will be quite windy Friday night into Saturday with gusts likely exceeding 30mph by midday Saturday. 

The big storm system this weekend will be blowing and going across the plains states by Saturday morning with a moderate to high risk of severe weather likely for our neighbors to the north.  The Storm Prediction Center has us hatched in for a slight risk of severe weather with strong upper level wind dynamics the main forcing factor here Saturday.  Although we’ll be an the southern-most edge of where severe weather could form, we will still see at least a broken, if not a solid squall line crossing the area Saturday afternoon.  Some isolated storms will be capable of rotation with wind damage, large hail, or and isolated tornado possible.  The greater risk of severe weather will likely be from Central Louisiana and northward and eastward Saturday afternoon and evening.  Behind this storm system expect mostly sunny and mild weather Sunday through Tuesday with highs in the low-mid 70s while lows drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s.  The atmosphere will reload again by late Wednesday with another round of heft storms possible by next Thursday.    

Our nice stretch of weather will continue for tomorrow with mostly sunny skies and warm afternoon temperatures in the mid-upper 70s.  Look out for areas of dense fog forming later tonight, but the fog should lift quickly early tomorrow morning.  Fog could return again tomorrow night but the winds will begin to pick up by early Friday morning in response to the storm system that will be developing in the plains.  We’ll see increased cloud cover and breezy conditions Friday with a few showers possibly developing during the day.  Stormy conditions are possible for Saturday as I do expect a strong squall line to develop with the next storm system.  Latest guidance indicates that the greatest risk of severe weather will be concentrated to the north of Acadiana, however, the dynamics still look quite strong across the area so we’ll still have to keep a close eye on this one.  The main storm track with this system appears to be farther north than the computer runs we saw yesterday, so I’m not looking for a significant cool down behind this one.  Fair to partly cloudy conditions with highs in the low-mid 70s are therefore expected Sunday through Wednesday of next week.  The next front that could produce another round of storms should arrive by next Thursday.

We have managed to make it through this entire Mardi Gras weekend rain free, and after a cool start, we finished off nice and mild.  More clouds and a few sprinkles are expected tonight through tomorrow morning, but the sun should make an appearance tomorrow afternoon.  I expect spring-like temperatures for the rest of the week with highs pushing the mid-upper 70s through Saturday.  The next big weather system will be approaching for late Saturday, and if the models are to believed, there may be a significant severe weather threat late Saturday into Saturday night.  As we get closer toward the end of the week we’ll get a better feel for what will happen this weekend so stay tuned.

It was a great day for the Mardi Gras festivities and we can expect more of the same Sunday. A weak cold front has just reinforced the cool temperatures but it will not get below freezing overnight as winds are a little too high for maximum radiational cooling. Tomorrow winds will relax and highs will reach into the upper 50s. High pressure and dry air will keep the skies clear through the day. By Presidents’ Day the center of high pressure will be sliding east and we will get a strong return flow as winds turn out of the south. That means more moisture and humidity. By then you may notice a few more clouds but we will not see a chance of rain until Mardi Gras day. Unfortunately scattered rain may ruin a few parades that day but the best chance will be Tuesday night into Wednesday. We will be monitoring the rain chances closely over the next couple of days.

Enjoy your weekend!

Kari Hall

It will be quite chilly tonight with frosty conditions likely to develop by morning.  I think our coldest temperatures will occur shortly after midnight as southwest winds slow or stop the cooling with a slow rise or steady temperatures through morning.  An “Alberta Clipper” weather system will create brisk west winds Saturday with temperatures rapidly warming into the upper 50s to lower 60s under sunny skies.  Winds will increase out of the northwest for late afternoon as colder air begins to filter in for the evening hours…so another “wind-chilly” night is ahead for Saturday night in Sunday morning.  I expect another light freeze for Sunday morning with highs reaching only into the mid-50s for Sunday afternoon.  Monday will bring milder temperatures for the afternoon with highs reaching the mid-60s.  Clouds will be increasing Monday which will keep temperatures milder for Monday evening.  Tuesday, Mardi Gras, should be mostly cloudy, breezy and warm with highs pushing into the lower 70s.  A vigorous storm system will be approaching for late Tuesday with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms developing by evening…hopefully we can get off all the parades before the storms move in.  This system will likely have a severe weather potential with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible…stay tuned for further developments on this one.  Have a safe weekend.