KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Archive for January, 2007

Answering Emails

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Here are a couple of emails (and answers) relevant to recent weather events:

On December 30th and January 4th, the New Iberia area experience flooding rain fall.  Using the rain gauge from Acadiana Regional Airport, what year storm would these days register as?  See www.srh.noaa.gov/data/ for rain fall quantities.

Answer: I would estimate that both events were in the 3 to 8 year return period.  Saturday morning’s rainfall rate probably came close to a and 8-10 year rain event while yesterday’s was in my estimation more of a 2-4 year event….but collectively in one week, although hard to quantify…the events together probably exceeded a once in every 25 year event. I’m enclosing a rainfall frequency atlas for the area for further information.

 

It’s a 41 page document that depicts rainfall frequencies: Â
http://www.losc.lsu.edu/tech97_2.pdf  

This is based on “tech paper 40″ which is considered to be the bible for climatologists.

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Do you know what was the peak flood stage for the Vermillion River during the 1993 flood?
Also, I saw on the NWS website that the highest flood stage recorded on the vermillion river was at 24.9 ft.  Do you know when it happened?  http://ahps.srh.noaa.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=lch&gage=vlsl1&view=1,1,1,1,1,1
Answer: The river crested on January 20, 1993 at 15.86′ with 10-13″ of rain in 24 hours…18.35ft is considered the 100 year flood, while 24.5ft was recorded on August 9, 1940 in response to a slow moving hurricane that brought 19.63″ in 24 hours to Lafayette and 23.69″ in two days.

Written by Rob Perillo

January 5th, 2007 at 7:51 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

Deadly Storms

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iberia_tornado_01_04_07.jpgUnfortunately the forecast panned out today with heavy rains and severe weather battering the area.  A tornadic thunderstorm did indeed develop with the surface low pressure system this afternoon with heavy damage and at least two fatalities in a small area from just southeast of New Iberia near Lydia northward through the Loreauville area.  The same cell likely produced a tornado near New Roads as well.  In addition to the fatalities, dozens of homes were damaged or destroyed with at least F1 tornadic winds, and based on the video I saw coming in tonight, it could have been an F2…roughly 120mph winds.  The National Weather Service will likely survey the damage Friday.  You can check out the official damages reports from the NWS.  Rainfall  amounts were in the 3-6” range with dozens of homes reporting flooding in Vermilion, Acadia, St Landry, Lafayette, Iberia, St Martin and possibly St Mary Parishes.

Tomorrow we’ll get a break, but rain is back into the forecast by Saturday night.  Fortunately this next one shouldn’t be a severe weather-maker, nor should it produce more than an inch of rain.  The one that follows late next week, or for the following weekend, on the other hand will be more trouble.  

Written by Rob Perillo

January 5th, 2007 at 12:35 am

Posted in Uncategorized

Flood Rains Possible Thursday

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katc_reg_sat_rad.jpgA Flood Watch has been posted for the entire area through tomorrow afternoon in anticipation of another heavy rain event for Acadiana.  3-5 inches of rain is likely across the region with isolated areas possibly receiving more.  There will also be some sort of severe weather risk across the area especially across the coastal parishes.  Nonetheless heavier storms tomorrow afternoon could contain large hail and damaging winds, in addition to the torrential downpours.  The grounds are quite saturated with area rivers at or near flood stage.  So by tomorrow evening, we could not only see localized street flooding, but low lying areas near any of our local rivers will be threatened.  The Vermilion at Surrey in Lafayette is still near 10 feet, so if we receive anything more than 2-4 inches of rain, in a short period of time, the river will likely rise in to the 13-13.5ft level which is about the level some homes begin to get threatened.  Needless to say we’ll be watching this next weather event closely.  In the near term tonight, expect patchy rain to develop overnight with widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms most likely toward the afternoon hours tomorrow.  Rain and storms will taper by midnight tomorrow night, or a few hours sooner, with partly cloudy and mild conditions Friday.  Our break from the wet weather will be short-lived with scattered showers likely late Saturday into Sunday, but the rains this weekend will be in the half to one inch range…we hope!  Be careful out there tomorrow.

Written by Rob Perillo

January 3rd, 2007 at 7:46 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

More Soaking Rains Coming

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The models are staying locked in on the next weather event for Thursday…I’ll have more on this tomorrow. 

Here’s a copy of a letter I sent today to Congressmen Boustany and Melancon, and Senators Vitter and Landrieu.  Please contact them if you feel the same as I do.

January 2, 2007

 

 

I am KATC Chief Meteorologist Rob Perillo writing to you requesting help in an FCC matter. 

 

As you may know our business has been mandated to convert to digital broadcasting frequencies.  On a sub-channel, we have been able to broadcast a live feed of local doppler radar information 24 hours per day.  If an individual possesses a digital receiver, they would be able to receive an uninterrupted display of weather information vital to our community’s safety on KATC DT 3.2.  In the past we had employed the use of our doppler radar on this sub-channel in severe weather situations and have had many viewers call and write indicating their satisfaction that we are able to provide this service. 

 

Unfortunately, the FCC has mandated that if we are to provide an additional 24 hour broadcast channel that the station must carry 3 hours of children’s programming per week on that specific frequency.  Although we do feel that children’s programming is very important to the community, providing continuous live, local, and vital weather information is more critical to an area that is so vulnerable to severe weather, floods and hurricanes.

 

I have been a meteorologist in Acadiana for more than 18 years and feel that we are doing our community a disservice by not passing on live 24 hour weather information available from our facility to the public.  This past weekend our community endured flooding rains and tornadic thunderstorms.  Our weather department broke into on our “regular” air dozens of times to warn the public, but availing the live doppler radar, or other pertinent severe weather information in a continuous environment, would allow each individual to instantly access the severe weather threat to their property and family.  We had many phone calls and emails inquiring as to why the doppler radar is no longer available on DT 3.2 in Lafayette, and it’s very hard to explain to them about the FCC mandate.  Although time delayed doppler information is available from the National Weather Service in Lake Charles and in Slidell on the web, and the Weather Channel on cable, the information can be more than 10 minutes old, and are no match for a live up to the second, local radar in this area.

 

I therefore am calling on you for help in seeking to resolve this issue that is important to me as a homeowner and family man, and as a meteorologist charged with protecting life and property in Acadiana. I am enclosing the link to the FCC site below for your review.

 

I look forward to any possible guidance you can provide in this matter.

 

Sincerely,

 

Rob Perillo

Chief Meteorologist

KATC – TV 3

Lafayette, LA

 

http://www.fcc.gov/mb/policy/kidstv.html

 

Written by Rob Perillo

January 2nd, 2007 at 11:54 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

Thursday's Storm Looking Nastier

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The only change to yesterday’s forecast would be that instead of the 2-3″ rain expected Thursday, I would would up the estimation to 3-5″…not good.  But wait there’s more…the storm track should hug the coast with a fairly strong surface system developing near Brownsville Wednesday driving north-northeastward toward Acadiana Thursday.  Near and just east and south of where the center of that low makes landfall will be the zone of higher/highest severe weather risk.  Therefore, the chance of severe storms has also increased for our area…stay tuned.  Enjoy the nice weather while you can!

Written by Rob Perillo

January 1st, 2007 at 6:49 pm

Posted in Uncategorized