KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Dreary weather continues…An area of low pressure will be moving out of southern Texas across the Gulf and over Louisiana tomorrow morning bringing heavy rain. At the time, the chance for severe weather is slight but not ruled out. But mostly it will be raining, heavy at times with an occasional thunderstorm. Rainfall totals will be 2-3 inches for most with up to 5 inches in heavier storms. Flooding looks unavoidable through the next few days as the rain does not end Sunday. The front will stall, keeping us wet through Wednesday.

El Nino is in full swing as the jet sets up over the state. Embedded in the jet stream is a series of weak disturbances that continues to bring light rain and cool temperatures. It has been difficult to time exactly when these disturbances will move through and the scenerio will not be changing through the weekend. By Saturday night into Sunday morning a surface low and a cold front will create an even more unstable atmosphere. Rain with some thunderstorms are expected until the front clears. Even after the surface low moves north, the jet stream will still be in place and will not allow high pressure to bring sunny skies. Monday and Tuesday will be cloudy with a slight chance of rain and then finally the upper level winds will change allowing for some sun. The best advice I have for the weekend is to keep your umbrella close!

Kari Hall

This is the latest advisory from the National Weather Service…

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10
CORRIDOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING…

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
10 ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN TUESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH LIGHT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THIS
TIME. COLDER AREAS SUCH AS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED
SURFACES SUCH AS ROADS AND BRIDGES…WHICH COULD CREATE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. AREAS CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 10 WILL ONLY SEE
MINOR IF ANY ICE ACCUMULATION…AND THIS WILL MAINLY BE ON
ELEVATED SURFACES.

A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH LIGHT SLEET IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS…AND WILL PUSH INTO LOUISIANA THIS
EVENING. AS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING…A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN…LIGHT SLEET…AND
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LITTLE IF ANY ICE ACCUMULATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
HOWEVER…ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND POWERS LINES AS
WELL AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES COULD SEE SOME MINOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. IN ADDITION…STANDING WATER THAT REMAINS FROM
EARLIER RAINS MAY GLAZE OVER IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS ON ELEVATED
SURFACES SUCH AS ROADS AND BRIDGES. THIS COULD CREATE SOME
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AS SOME SLICK SPOTS DEVELOP.

AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO WARM FOR
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES…AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

Many outdoor celebrations will be taking place on Sunday and it will be the last day of warm temperatures before the Arctic blast moves in. There will be a slight chance of rain but the rain chances really increase Monday as the front passes. Any scheduled events for MLK Jr. Day looks iffy and rain may interrupt. After Monday temperatures will be well below average with highs only reaching into the upper 40s with lows in the low 30s.

There still looks to be the chance of frozen precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a weak upper level disturbance moves in with very cold temperatures. Freezing rain and/or sleet will be possible for parishes north of I-10. The chance is slight but remains a possibility. If there is freezing rain we can expect ice coated on trees, power lines, and anything else above ground. The ground will be too warm but bridges and overpasses will be slick. Hopefully, we will just see rain before the skies clear Thursday.

Enjoy your weekend!

Kari Hall

Enjoy the warm temperatures this weekend as it will likely be a while before we see highs 70s again.  Fog is the near term issue tonight and tomorrow night into the morning hours, while expect mostly cloudy, breezy and warm weather for the afternoon hours tomorrow and Sunday.  Rain chances will stay in the vicinity of 20% through Sunday, with most of the rain likely to follow the cold front that arrives early Monday. 

Our weather next week will be dictated by a warm southwest to northeast sub-tropical jet stream that will override a shallow arctic airmass.  This is a very typical winter El Nino phenomenon and will likely result with a nasty ice storm across the plains.  For us it will be windy and cool rains and even a few storms on Monday with very cold rains or drizzle for Tuesday and Wednesday.  The coldest air will be filtering in by Tuesday evening but much of Acadiana should stay above the freezing mark while there is precipitation falling…however…there is a distinct possibility that Central and Western Louisiana could see some sort of sleet or freezing rain event into early Wednesday.  If I were guessing based on today’s information, northern parts of Allen, Evangeline, St Landry and Avoyelles Parishes could get a little icy by Wednesday morning.  Obviously the farther north and west you are this weekend, the better the opportunity for winter conditions will exist.  Stay tuned for possible changes as travel could get hazardous in spots next week. 

Temperatures will drop through the 60s early Monday into the 40s by evening and will likely reside in the mid-upper 30s to lower 40s for Tuesday and Wednesday.  It should dry out for Thursday with freezing conditions possible for Wednesday and Thursday nights.  Temperatures should moderate into next weekend.  Have a good weekend!

Changes abound in the forecast with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures pushing into the mid-70s tomorrow and mid-upper 70s this weekend.  We will likely see some scattered shower activity tomorrow through the weekend, but the key word will be “scattered”.  There will likely be disturbances embedded in the sub-tropical jet stream which will move overhead this weekend.   These disturbances will likely spark of more showers but timing and location of these events will be nearly impossible.  It now looks like our strongest dynamics for rain and storms will come Monday accompanying the strong cold front that should bring a taste of winter back to Acadiana.   The Eight Day Forecast is changing every computer model run so don’t forget to check back with us down the road!

Check out the picture of Comet McNaught taken locally by professional photographer Jay Faugot.  You can learn more about Mcnaught from space.com.  We probably won’t get anymore opportunities to see the comet as our latitide is too low and the skies will likely be filled with clouds over the next few days.  But if we’re louck tomorrow evening try scanning the skies with binoculars just north of due west off the horizon (with no trees).

The latest trends on computer models indicate that this weekend’s weather system will be delayed into the latter part of Sunday or into Sunday night.  The dynamics don’t appear to be as strong, but we will probably see a risk of severe weather come late Sunday.  The good news is that we probably won’t be looking at a prolonged heavy rain event.  I do expect some scattered showers by Saturday, but the main action should be with a squall line ahead of a strong cold front by late Sunday.  In the near term look for fair skies tonight, gradually yielding to increasing clouds, breezy southeast winds, and milder temperatures.  If we see a few intervals of sunshine this weekend, we’ll get as warm as we can get this time of year, pushing the mid-upper 70s.  Winter will make a return next week with temperatures dropping into the 40s for highs and perhaps the mid-20s for lows.  It’s looking much drier now with the colder air so I don’t expect any kind of winter precipitation at this time.  Interestingly enough, if the tail end of the long range models can be believed, then we me see even colder air and a shot of some sort of winter event before the month is done.  Nonetheless, after this weekend expect below normal temperatures to finish out the month. 

The following is from Roger Erickson from the National Weather Service pertaining to last week’s tornadic event:

* Last Thursday’s tornado was the first tornado in Iberia Parish since 1999.
* The last tornado in Iberia Parish hit Jeanerette on March 2 1999.
* Tornadoes in January have occurred before – a tornado struck New Iberia on January 2 1999.
* This was the 20th tornado documented by the National Weather Service in Iberia Parish since 1950.
* Last week’s two fatalities were the first ones attributed to a tornado in Iberia Parish.

The forecast as we head into the weekend, and next week, will be quite challenging.  Near-term look for more cool and dry weather through early Thursday with warm conditions and increased clouds likely Friday into the weekend.  The computer models are slower with getting the dynamics into the region for the hefty storms, plus they are pushing drier and colder air into the region early next week.  This pattern is usually quite complicated to decipher as the models usually have issues with shallow arctic air.  Add an active sub-tropical jet stream to the equation and almost anything is possible.  The bottom line is that we’re on track for a good soaking (and maybe severe weather)…now pushed back to Sunday, and then we’ll get a shot of winter temperatures early next week.  Please use caution when using the last 3 days of the Eight Day Forecast…there is plenty of room for a “forecast bust”!  Nonetheless, if we get deep into the winter temperature regime next week and perhaps into the following weekend, we could be looking at a number of opportunities for a winter weather event…when?  Stay tuned for that!

We’re looking good over the next several days with fair and seasonably cool conditions anticipated.  High pressure will yield to Rocky Mountain and Plains troughing by the end of the week resulting in a milder and eventually moist return flow from the Gulf.  A series of upper disturbances combined with a slow moving frontal boundary will likely spell wet weather this weekend and quite possibly into early next week.  In addition, there may be a severe weather threat before the next cold front moves through sometime Saturday or into Sunday.  After the weekend we’ll probably segue into chilly overrunning rains as cold air at the surface filters in while the upper disturbances continue.  Our grounds will still likely be quite moist as we head into the weekend so we could be looking at yet another flood threat.  This “wetter than normal pattern” looks continue at least for the next two weeks.