KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

On and off rain and localized heavier showers will stay in the forecast through Thursday night.  The sub-tropical jet stream should stay active overhead through the next 36 hours keeping clouds and rain in the area.  Computer models have not been doing a good job of pin-pointing the heaviest moisture axes, so the best forecast for now would be occasional rain with embedded heavier storms from time to time.  A cold front should work its way into the region and into the Gulf for Friday ushering in seasonably cooler conditions with highs closer to the upper 50s for Friday and Saturday.  We should see a brief respite from the precipitation for Friday afternoon and early Saturday, but an upper impulse should ignite low pressure on the front in the Gulf for late Saturday into Sunday.  It isn’t clear how far offshore this system will be and what the moisture field will look like, nonetheless I would expect at least periods of light rain and/or drizzle Saturday night into Sunday with plenty of clouds and brisk northeast winds.  Temperatures on Sunday will likely have a hard time getting out of the 40s.  Drier and colder conditions should move in for Christmas Day with another upper impulse coming in that night.  If there would be any moisture lingering, I’d call for some snow flurries with the upper disturbance, but it appears that will probably not be the case.  Cold conditions for Tuesday into early Wednesday of next week will moderate with some light showers and plenty of clouds likely late next week.     

It’s a different week, but we still haven’t been able to shake the fog.  The low overcast stratiform cloud deck should lay back down on us tonight, but there are some indications that we may have enough of an easterly wind to keep the fog from getting too thick.  But if persistence is the forecast, expect another dreary morning tomorrow with low visibility through 9:00am.  The fog should lift to mostly cloudy skies tomorrow afternoon, but with a few intervals of sunshine possible, temperatures could reach into the mid-70s. There will be a slight chance of an isolated shower, but you’ll really need the umbrella later in the week. 

Some healthy rains are likely on the way.  Quantitative precipitation amounts will be in the several inch range with a series of disturbances riding on a frontal boundary that should stall in the Northwestern Gulf later this week.  So on and off rains, some of which could be locally heavy, are in the forecast Wednesday through Friday with a significant storm likely to develop for Christmas Eve.  I say significant as it may be a winter weather-maker for areas north of here from the I-20 corridor on northeastward.  These series of weather systems will bring seasonably cool temperatures later this week into the weekend with colder temperatures likely for Christmas Day and a few days that follow.

With colder air moving in, and another disturbance rolling in from the northwest on Monday, it’s not out of the realm of see some light frozen precipitation on Christmas Day and the following night somewhere in Acadiana…we’ll see.  The statistical chance of a white Christmas here is just a fraction of a percent, but this year it could be much higher!   If you remember, two years ago, many of us saw a white, or at least an icy, Christmas.  We’ll see how things play out over the next several days.  

Fog will continue to blanket us overnight through early next week. It has created a dangerous situation for drivers and pedrestrians every day since Monday and the warm, humid air is not going anywhere for a while. Winds have picked up just a bit as a front moves slowly north of here. Hopefully, the stronger winds will help keep the fog from being as thick as the past few nights.

Sunday will be a repeat of today with fog, clouds, then sunshine in the afternoon. By Tuesday a Pacific cold front will pace its way closer to the state and bring a chance of rain through early Thursday. It will look much this past Tuesday morning when we had heavy down pours and temperatures not changing much after the front passed. Right now it looks to stay warm until about Christmas Eve. We will see what happens…

Enjoy your weekend!

Kari Hall

It’s fog again tonight that is grabbing the weather headlines.  We continue to stay in a rather benign pattern with very little in the way of low level air movement.  So a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued once again for the entire area.  The thick fog will likely stay with us at least through 8:00am with visibility slow to improve as the cloud deck gradually gets higher toward the afternoon hours.  It was interesting to see how the fog/stratus deck did not burn off again across portions of Acadiana.  The Atchafalaya Swamp and offshore waters combined with a very light east wind conspired to keep us mired on the moisture and clouds.  The Cajun Prairie (west of Lafayette) saw the fog burning off much more quickly because the land heats up better, thereby allowing for much warmer temperatures too.  We may see more the same tomorrow, but I will still keep some sunshine in the afternoon forecast…so temperatures could be a bust again in some spots.   Lafayette, St Martin, St Landry, Iberia, St Mary and Vermilion Parishes will see fog linger the longest tomorrow. 

The fog could return again tomorrow night but as we head deeper into the weekend an increasing pressure gradient should confine the fog to a lighter variety, and/or just bring nighttime and early morning low cloudiness.  The active jet stream along the west coast will be lumbering across the Rockies this weekend and could give us a round of hefty storms and/or a series of heavy rain events mid-next week.  Now its looking colder prior to Christmas…but it’s still looking wet for Christmas Eve…stay tuned for more updates!

Look out for the fog tonight and again tomorrow night.  It is really thick out there at press time so allow extra time to get where you’re going.  Some fog tips include slowing down (30-50% of the speed limit is a good guide), using your low beams for better visibility through the fog and by others, and watch for pedestrians.  You can check out the latest status on the Dense Fog Advisory and latest observations at the NWS Lake Charles.

I wanted to talk about these two items last week, but the freezing temperatures had more of our attention.  Dr. Gray and Phillip Klotzbach came out with their 2007 Hurricane Season Forecast.  There calling for above normal activity to resume with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes 3 of which should be major storms.  Risk of a category 3 or higher striking the Gulf coast is at 40%…which is 10% higher than normal.  The main question is will El Nino again interfere with the hurricane season.  Gray and Klotzbach are planning on El Nino to diminish by mid-summer, in time for the heart of hurricane season, so we’ll see.   El Nino keeps on coming strong as of late last month…check out the latest NASA imagery and report.  Hopefully El Nino is stronger and will take longer to dissipate.

Fair and mild weather will stay with us over the next few days.  Expect a mostly sunny Wednesday with a partly cloudy Thursday as a weak upper disturbance rolls by for Thursday afternoon.  There might be a brief sprinkle with this disturbance but most shower activity should miss us offshore.  Friday into the weekend looks nice albeit getting on the very warm side for this time of year. Highs this weekend into early next week will be flirting with the 80 degree mark.  Showers and storms will become more likely by mid-next week, and there could be a heavy rain event in the offing as well. 

Live by the computer models, die by the computer models!  Today’s long rain outlook through Christmas is quite different than yesterdays.  So we’ll shy away from specifics other than our temperatures should stay above normal through mid-next week and perhaps until about Christmas Day, then there should be a significant cooling trend in the days that follow.  It looks wet the few days leading up to Christmas Eve.  Check out the “latest” long range forecast tonight at 10pm. 

What a difference a week makes!  This week will be highlighted by mild temperatures and some foggy nights.  In the near term, a dense fog advisory has been issued for much of Acadiana tonight through tomorrow.  This type of fog, sea fog, is a manifestation of warm humid Gulf air traveling over the much chillier coastal waters.  The fog will begin to yield to scattered shower activity during the early morning hours with rain chances decreasing by noon.  Temperatures will stay above normal for the rest of the week and into the weekend with highs in the mid-upper 70s accompanied by lows in the mid-50s.  We might see some shower activity again Thursday with an upper system that will be entering the western Gulf coast.  Right now I have only a 20% chance of getting wet on Thursday, but that percentage could go up.  The real wet weather should develop early next week as the models are indicating a vigorous system for around Monday/Tuesday. 

The longer outlook toward Christmas looks warm until around Christmas Eve or Day.  An incredibly strong system is forecast the models to dive well south into the Gulf of Mexico and this could bring some very cold air into the region and possibly a few flurries following Christmas!  We’ll see how consistent the long range models are…because when we’re talking two weeks out in the winter-time, a lot can change.   I’ll comment more about this in the days to come.    

We began the day with temperatures once again in the 20s but we will start to warm up tomorrow. The clouds really thickened overnight keeping lows from dipping into the lower 20s. Today they are keeping it from warming to the expected high of 56. The clouds won’t be going anywhere for a while but the winds will be turning out of the south tonight. Southeasterly winds will usher in highs in the 60s and 70s in the next few days along with more moisture in the atmosphere. A big contrast to the 20s this and yesterday morning.

Rain chances will really increase ahead of a cold front Tuesday. We may even have isolated severe weather as convective energy will be marginally high for this time of year. Temperatures after the front won’t be too cold because this front is originating in the Pacific as opposed to the Canadian air we are recovering from. High pressure afterward will keep us high and dry with normal temperatures staying with us a while.

Enjoy your weekend!

Kari Hall

It’s an interesting forecast for tonight.  Computer guidance is fairly unanimous in forecasting lows in the 27-29 degree range, but they are underestimating the dryness of the air…dew points are right near 10 degrees.  With diminishing winds we would normally expect lows in this scenario to drop into the lower 20s.  But high level cirrus clouds have been dancing just to the west of us.  So that means tonight’s forecast low of 24 degrees is a hedge.  If the high clouds thicken our lows would likely stay in the upper 20s, but if they remain thin enough, we could easily get close to 21.  And if conditions stay just right and long enough, upper teens north of I-10 would not be out of question!  The bottom line is that tonight we should be sub-freezing for a solid 10 hours.  Although it is a hassle to take care of the plants, pets and pipes, just think about the number of mosquitoes we’re killing!  After tomorrow morning we should be done with freezing temperatures for at least a week with 70s back in the region by Monday.