We are still on track for a nasty weather event for tomorrow night into early Saturday. The latest in-house computer guidance this afternoon is certainly indicating that a severe weather event will develop close to home. The low level jet stream (at 5,000ft) tomorrow night will increase to near 75mph. This indicates two things: the threat of incredibly high rainfall rates, on the order of 2-3†per hour, and the increased likelihood of rotating storms that will produce damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. In fact, although the Storm Prediction Center has us hatched in for a slight risk of severe weather, I wouldn’t be surprised if we were upgraded into a moderate risk category. I think the greatest risk of tornadic thunderstorms will be across west-central Louisiana where the highest severe weather parameters will be found.  Don’t be surprised if a “tornado watch†is issued for our area by late tomorrow evening…stay tuned…
Near-term we’ll stay breezy and mild tonight, with gusty southeast winds increasing to 20-30mph tomorrow afternoon. Rain chances will increase to 50% by late tomorrow afternoon and near 100% late tomorrow night into early Saturday. There should be a nice improvement by late Saturday afternoon with dry conditions into the New Year. We appear entering a dynamic weather period over the next few weeks so get ready for more of the same through mid-January. The next wet weather system should arrive by Wednesday of next week.