KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

We dodged a bullet with respect to severe weather last night and this morning.  We did have tornado warnings for Vermilion, Lafayette, St Martin and Iberia parishes last night and this morning, but fortunately no major reports of damage.  The storms last night did produce wind gusts in the 50mph range which did uproot a few trees and knocked out a few power lines, but based on the dynamics at hand last night we were quite lucky.  Most of the storm damage and significant tornadic circulations were found to the east into Mississippi and Alabama. 

Blustery conditions continue to spill into region in the wake of the frontal system that passed this morning.  Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid-40s with wind chills likely dropping into the low-mid 30s by morning.  Plentiful sunshine should bring temperatures near 60 tomorrow afternoon, but it will feel cooler with the breeze.  Light winds and clear skies tomorrow night should set the stage for low in the upper 30s and I wouldn’t be surprised if there will be a light frost in the northern portions of Acadiana by Friday morning.  Fair and milder weather is on tap for Friday and Saturday, while another surge of cool air arrives with little fanfare for Sunday into Monday.  It looks to get warmer for mid-next week with Thanksgiving looking fair, breezy and warm with highs in the upper 70s.  The next significant rain chance will follow after Thanksgiving.

There remains a strong possibility of volatile weather across the area later tonight through the early morning hours.  Strong upper level winds combined with directional and increasing shear aloft will likely produce severe weather close to home by tomorrow morning.  Now just because we have a lot of the ingredients to produce severe weather, it doesn’t necessarily mean that we’ll see things gel in Acadiana by morning.  Nonetheless, the Storm Prediction Center has most of Acadiana hatched in for a moderate risk of severe weather.  We are rarely in a moderate risk zone so this makes this system a possible significant weather event.  I would be looking for a squall line to develop late tonight across NE Texas and then build southeastward across the state during the pre-dawn hours.  The question remains on weather the squall will go “severe” prior to reaching Acadiana, over Acadiana or east toward Baton Rouge.  I think the worst will happen either to the north or east of Acadiana but it’s really too close to call.  I wouldn’t be surprised though if we have wind damaging or tornadic thunderstorms in the northern Acadiana parishes by morning.  In addition to the actual squall, there may be “discrete” isolated pre-dawn cells that develop ahead of the squall that could go tornadic later tonight.  I’ll have a better feel for the situation tonight at 10pm, so don’t forget to tune in. 

The squall should clear there area during the morning hours with rain chances decreasing dramatically during the mid-morning hours.  Expect very windy conditions to follow this system with WNW winds increasing to 20-30mph with higher gusts likely tomorrow afternoon and evening.  We should see some brief clearing early tomorrow afternoon with some wrap-around clouds into tomorrow evening.  It looks nice and cool Thursday through the weekend into next week with the coldest air expected tomorrow night and into Thursday night with temperature dropping to near 40.  Wind chills Thursday morning could dip into the lower 30s so get ready to bundle up!  Again we’ll be watching this storm system closely in the Weather Lab tonight so keep me and Dave company and stay tuned tonight through tomorrow morning…just in case.      

A strong storm system will develop over the nation’s midsection through midweek engendering shower and thunderstorm activity across the region.  An upper impulse will push through tomorrow inducing scattered showers and a few storms along with warm breezes from the south-southeast tomorrow afternoon.  A strong squall line will likely develop tomorrow night across Eastern Texas with activity sweeping through Acadiana during the pre-near dawn hours of Wednesday.  The upper level jet stream dynamics will be quite impressive with this system, thus there will be a severe weather threat per the Storm Prediction Center.  The main severe weather threat will be wind damage so we’ll be watching this one closely.  This storm system should be potent enough to produce gusty southerly winds ahead of the frontal boundary that will get here early Wednesday while behind the front strong NW winds will be likely…inland wind advisory and offshore gale conditions are a distinct possibility following this system.  Colder, blustery conditions will be with us Wednesday night through Thursday with fair and cool conditions likely into the weekend and at least through early next week.

It has been a great weekend with lots of sunshine and cool overnight temperatures. High pressure will be moving east and winds will become more easterly tomorrow. Temperatures will warm up to 70 degrees and expect a slight chance of isolated showers Monday and Tuesday. A cold front will push through late Tuesday, early Wednesday increasing the rain chances to 50%. It looks like we will have enough dynamics for severe weather on Wednesday morning with an upper low and favorable turning of winds with height. The main threat will be wind damage and possible rotating storms. We will have to continue to monitor the agreement among forecast models.

By Thursday we will be all clear with temperatures topping out in the mid 60s with lows in the 40s. At the time, next weekend looks just as pleasant as this one.

Enjoy your week!

Kari Hall

Much cooler air is on the way courtesy of a vigorous cold front that will cross the region later tonight.  Scattered showers and a few storms can be expected with the frontal passage later tonight, but the strongest, possibly severe storms, should bypass us to the north.  Breezy and very cool conditions will return to the area by daybreak with temperatures barely making it into the mid-60s tomorrow afternoon. Mostly sunny skies should be back with us by mid-morning.  It will drop into the low-mid 40s tomorrow night with a sunny and cool weather expected for Sunday afternoon.  Milder but unsettled weather is on tap for early next week with rain developing for late Monday.  Scattered showers will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday until the next front crosses the region by Wednesday afternoon. 

It looks good for the first day of duck/goose hunting season tomorrow with moderately strong northerly winds near 15-22mph expected for a good part of the day.  Temperatures during the early morning hours will stay in the upper 50s to lower 60s.  And in addition to keeping the waterfowl stirred up, the winds will also mitigate the mosquitoes, but not this evening so keep the bug spray, and gallons of it, handy for tonight!  Sunrise tomorrow morning will be at 6:29am.  Be careful out there!

There is little change in the forecast over the next few days.  Look out for the fog late at night tonight and tomorrow night and expect some showers and storms Friday night into very early Saturday.  If we do see storms Friday, some could be quite strong…we are hatched in by the SPC for a slight risk of severe storms.  Right now the risk appears to be quite low.  The weekend should be just fine if the timing of the next front is right. 

Mercury was in transit across the sun today.  Jay Faugot, a local photographer, took this shot (to the right) from Lafayette early this afternoon.  Mercury is the little dot in front.  Also, you may notice the big sunspot to the left…cool stuff.  I hope to have video from the Lafayette Planetarium folks tonight at 10pm so stay tuned!

A nice and quiet weather pattern will stay with us over the next few days.  Fair and cooler conditions are on tap for tonight with some patchy, shallow ground fog possible by daybreak.  Look for lows tonight in the low-mid 50s.  Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and milder with highs reaching into the mid-upper 70s.  Thursday and Friday we’ll see highs in the low-mid 80s with clouds increasing by Friday afternoon.  The next chance of showers will be Friday evening into early Saturday with the next cool front.  Sunday should be nice while it will get unsettled early next week with the chance of showers Monday and or Tuesday.  The latest computer models are hinting at a fairly significant cold front come mid-next week, but we’ll have to wait on more computer model consistency (which has been non-existent over the last few weeks) before jumping on the arctic band wagon.

Our crazy, and hard to predict weather pattern, is improving for the rest of this week, but by the weekend more question marks return.  It was one of those interesting days where we started out with lots of sunshine, then rain and storms moved in.  But as soon as the wet weather moved in, it moved out with sunshine late this afternoon.  Rainfall tallies thankfully were not much greater than 1-2 inches.  Near term look out for some fog this evening as temperatures and dew points meet up around 60.  Fog will be a distinct possibility with saturated grounds and light winds.  Winds should pick-up in most areas by daybreak, but if they don’t, the fog could get quite thick.  Tomorrow should bring mostly sunny and pleasant conditions after some morning clouds.  Temperatures should be just about perfect, in the lower 70s tomorrow afternoon.  We’ll have a brief round of cool air advection tomorrow night with lows dropping into the low-mid 50s.  Thereafter, expect a warming trend with highs reaching back into the mid-upper 70s Wednesday and low-mid 80s for the rest of the week into the weekend.  There should be some shower activity returning for the weekend, but intensity and timing remain up in the air as model confidence beyond 72 hours remains low. 

Looking back at last week’s blogs I didn’t do a great job in the forecasting accuracy department for this week (good forecasts based on available data, but lower than expected accuracy).  Per the computer models, I expected the progressive system that moved through today to be slower and cut-off from the jet stream, but such wasn’t the case.  There are periods where I feel quite “dialed-in” into the weather pattern, and was pretty much spot on forecasting for a few weeks, but soon as you think you have it figured out, the pattern goes and changes to something completely different.  That’s what makes meteorology fun and a humbling experience…especially in El Nino years.  Like the weather itself, the forecast can change almost everyday.  Expect more of the same this winter!

As the weekend comes to a close, the rain chances will be back in the forecast. A cold front Monday will bring showers and some embedded thunderstorms. The front will move through in the evening and the rain will be ending with high pressure moving in Tuesday. The main concern at the time will be coastal flooding. With a full moon, very high tides, and southerly winds water pushing inland is a distinct possibility. Monday evening high tide will be at 5:22 and with the rain tides will be 1/2 to 1 foot above normal. After Monday conditions will be improving and a pleasant week is on the way.

Enjoy your week!

Kari Hall

It will be another cold one tonight with lows dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s.  It will warm-up nicely this weekend with lots of sunshine tomorrow and partly cloudy skies on Sunday.  Look for highs near 70 tomorrow and in the mid-70s Sunday.  We’ll be near 80 for daytime highs much of next week while it will likely get on the wet side.  How wet?  It’s too early to tell, but I would plan on some rain developing by late Monday with a good chance of showers and storms Tuesday and/or Wednesday, but this system could last into Thursday/Friday.  Right now the models are split with some being progressive (less rain) while our old reliable long range model has been flip-flopping on timing and speed.  The way things have been going this fall I would certainly skew the forecast to the wetter side. 

Then the big question would be how much rain?  While still far off, a “big” “multi-inch” rain event is definitely possible.  So there will be the risk of more flooding as we head into next week.  Donovan Landreneau, forecaster with the National Weather Service in Lake Charles has come up with the rain totals for last month…and they are huge in some areas.  What we don’t need is another 5-10 inch rainfall next week…but it could happen.  Stay tuned…