KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

October normal temperatures decided to stay a while. It has been a great weekend with plentiful sunshine and cool nights. We can enjoy it for a couple more days but it will be slightly warmer as we begin the work-week. High pressure well to the northeast is pushing easterly winds our way but as that becomes less of an influence…humidity and temperatures will rise.

We can look forward to another push of cool air. The first rush of Arctic air is progged to make it here on about Thursday. But we may have to deal with severe storms on Wednesday and early Thursday just ahead of the front. Until then enjoy the sunshine and start digging for the sweaters.

Kari Hall 

We’re expecting one more hot one for tomorrow, before a weak cool front delivers drier and more comfortable conditions for this weekend.  Just a few showers will be possible tomorrow afternoon, mainly with the daytime heating.  Tomorrow’s high will reach the lower 90s while we’ll favor highs closer to the mid 80s Friday into the weekend.  More importantly the edge will be taken off the humidity, and that will make it feel much better.  Overnight lows should dip into the low-mid 60s. 

The forecast will stay essentially dry (no significant precipitation) with a few showers possible again mid-next week.  The long range models have been hinting at a vigorous storm system that could bring nasty storms and heavy rains either late next week or into the following weekend.  After that weather event we should see more fall-like temperatures…we hope! 

Rob Perillo

More summer-like weather is in the forecast into the weekend, although it should be a few degrees cooler and not quite as humid for the weekend.  We might see some shower activity next week, but the front is not looking nearly as active nor as cool as it did a few days ago. 

The big news in the weather department today is that Dr. Gray and Phillip Klotzbach have lowered the forecast number of tropical systems in the Atlantic once again.  As we had discussed in previous blogs, El Nino came on strong during the summer and that combined with lots of dry, dust-laden air, has really knocked our active cycle down.  The Colorado State group is calling for two more storms, one of which will become a hurricane, and it shouldn’t be a major one.  I find it quite interesting that all the long-term climate models missed the intensity and timing of this El Nino (another reason why I don’t implicitly trust the long-term global warming models…but that’s another story).  The question is why did the El Nino develop so rapidly in the Pacific?  Gray et al propose that a long-lived, large typhoon in the Western Pacific may have got El Nino kick started pushing anomalously warm water well to the east into El Nino “3.4” country.  Hopefully the El Nino pattern doesn’t hit us too hard this winter and that it sticks around through next summer to decrease the number of storms. 

Rob Perillo

Summer will stay with us through the next week as a stagnant pattern has taken hold of the region.  There will be an isolated shower or two possible any day this week into the weekend, but chances of getting wet will be near 10% or less.  So look for partly cloudy days with highs in the lower 90s and fair nights with lows near 70 through the end of the weekend.  It looks like scattered showers and maybe some thunderstorms will be possible early next week preceding and accompanying the next front, which should get here by next Wednesday. 

The good news is that tropics continue to stay quiet.  But four years ago on this date it was different story as Hurricane Lili was bearing down the Louisiana Coast as a category 4 storm with 145mph winds.  Lili had drier air poised just to the west of the storm off the Texas coast prior to landfall while much cooler shelf waters from Tropical Storm Isidore the week before was situated off the coast about 80 miles out.  Both of these features conspired to weaken the storm rapidly to a category 1 status, but it was the strongest category 1 storm to slam the entire Acadiana region.  Wind gusts to 100-110 mph were quite common with this storm with areas in Vermilion, Acadia and Lafayette parishes getting hit the hardest.  You might remember that after the storm we had nearly 400,000 without power.  Some folks, in heavily wooded areas did not see power restored up to a week post storm.  Also on this date in 1964, Hurricane Hilda, a category 3 storm, was about to make landfall in St Mary Parish producing extensive damage in Iberia, St Martin and St Mary Parishes and buried much of Southeastern Louisiana under water.  It looks like this October 3rd will be much nicer, albeit hot.   

Rob Perillo