It looks like we’ll have a nice and mild, and mostly dry Halloween. An upper level disturbance will spark off a few scattered showers, but chances of getting wet at press time appeared to be not much higher than 20%. Temperatures during trick or treat times will range in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A few showers may still be possible early Wednesday prior to a cold front pushing drier air in the region by Wednesday afternoon.  It will be nice and cool, with a fair bit of cloud cover for the rest of the week with moderating temperatures for the weekend.  We could see a few showers as early as Sunday but there will be better rain chances early next week.Â
The system early next week is not looking too wet, but this El Nino fall has been much more dynamic than advertised by the computer models. The long-range models are still dialed into a big system in about 11-12 days. The GFS model is looking quite ominous for heavy rain and maybe severe weather around the November 11-13 time-frame. Although not depicted well on the GFS link, our in-house analysis looks very wet and stormy. Hopefully the pattern and the forecast will change. Near-term enjoy the relatively benign pattern.