KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

The forecast remains on track with drier more comfortable air moving in by morning.  Tomorrow and Friday will be very nice with mostly sunny skies, but the humidity will return by Saturday under partly cloudy skies.  Scattered showers and afternoon storms will be possible Sunday afternoon as moisture deepens and the atmosphere become more unstable.  A frontal boundary accompanied by a series of upper disturbances will bring a very good chance of storms Monday with activity possibly stretching into early Tuesday.  Drier more comfortable conditions will return for Wednesday and Thursday of next week. 

Hurricane Gordon is looking quite mature on satellite imagery this afternoon with a brief stint as a category three storm likely through tomorrow.  TD#8 is slowly getting its act together and should become Helene and possibly a hurricane in the next few days.  Gordon and TD#8/Helene will stay Atlantic systems.  Elsewhere, a weak mid-level circulation in the Bay of Campeche is void of convection while a tropical wave in the Eastern Caribbean has hostile upper winds near it.  Development with either of these systems is not expected.

Rob Perillo

Drier air is on the way after a good scattering of storms this evening.  The good stuff won’t get here until tomorrow evening, but look for temperatures to drop into the mid-60s tomorrow night and Thursday night.  Thursday and Friday will be very nice with humidity returning for Saturday.  Showers and storms will be possible by Sunday into Monday. 

The tropics are active…but just in the Atlantic with three systems blowing and going at press time.  The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Hurricane Florence which is almost finished in its extratropical transition.  Florence will remain a formidable and very large storm for a few more days in the Atlantic.  Tropical Storm Gordon continues to slowly strengthen with the forecast bring the system to hurricane status, but the latest water vapor imagery looks potentially hostile beyond tomorrow.  Gordon will curve to the north and will not threaten any land masses as a tropical system.  As expected TD#8 formed today and will likely become Tropical Storm Helene later tonight.  This system has plenty of potential, but will also stay and Atlantic system. 

So far, so good in the Gulf and Caribbean, but I have noticed the long range models are hinting at lower surface pressures in the Caribbean and southern Gulf toward the last week of the month.  Although the models do not forecast any tropical systems in this area, experience dictates that something could be brewing by then.  Let’s just hope the excessive shear this season stays in place through mid-October. 

Rob Perillo

Look for another day of warm and humid conditions with a good chance of thunderstorms for Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours.  Drier more comfortable air will move in behind a weak front tomorrow night setting up for a very nice Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  Highs will be in the upper 80s to 90 for the rest of the week with lows dropping into the mid-upper 60s through Saturday morning.  The humidity will return for Saturday with a few showers possible by Sunday.  Scattered showers and storms will be back into the forecast for early next week prior to the next frontal boundary that will approach by Tuesday of next week. 

In the tropics, Hurricane Florence is moving away from Bermuda while Tropical Storm Gordon is strengthening in the wake of Florence.  Gordon is expected to be an open Atlantic system as well.  Farther to the east, a strong tropical wave and an area of low pressure is about to move off the African coast.  Development with this system is likely in the next few days.  We have reached the mid-point of the 2006 hurricane season, and with an impending El Nino circulation developing, it is likely that this season will finish well below the normal of the last 10 years…we just have to get through the last week of September and the first week of October before our odds of tropical activity diminish greatly in Acadiana…keep your fingers crossed. 

Rob Perillo

It appears that our humidity honeymoon is over with a rather unsettled weather pattern developing this weekend into much of next week, perhaps beyond.  This is the time of year when forecasting just the next day becomes a challenge as we are back in between weather systems which cane come at us from any direction on the compass.  It is very typical of the early fall, but systems coming from the west-southwest, like we’re seeing right now is unusually early for this time of year.  Nonetheless, plan on higher humidity, more clouds and scattered showers this weekend.  Latest computer model runs, which have been flip-flopping, are indicating drier air moving in for Sunday and Monday and another impulse to produce more clouds and scattered showers for mid-next week…stay tuned, the forecast will likely change each day! 

T.S. Florence appears to be ready for intensification tonight with Bermuda still under the gun with this one.  The rest of the tropics remain very quiet, but I would be looking for a wave coming off the African coast in the next couple of days to have potential, plus the long-range models are dropping ambient surface pressures in the Caribbean in about 9-10 days.  Lower pressures over the Caribbean usually translates to developing and/or enhancing tropical activity…the season isn’t over yet.  Have a good weekend. 

Rob Perillo

One more half way decent day is on tap for tomorrow with humidity expected to stay in check.  Moisture will begin to increase this weekend and with that the chance of a few isolated showers on Saturday and scattered activity Sunday.  A series of disturbances will work around the periphery of an eastward shifting upper high next week which will bring good chances of daytime showers and thunderstorms for much of the week…we could use the rain. 

A very large Florence is behaving according to plan, while the rest of the tropics are incredibly quiet. 

Tonight the Space Station will be visible at 8:27pm moving almost overhead coming out of the earth’s shadow in the western sky heading to the south-southeast…happy viewing!

Rob Perillo

There are no major changes to yesterday’s assessment…expect the nice weather to continue through Friday, humidity and clouds to increase this weekend, with a good chance of storms developing along about Tuesday and/or Wednesday of next week.  It appears that it will be getting wetter and stormier deeper into the latter partt of next week.  

Tropical Storm Florence continues to slowly gain steam but the model runs have been consistent with a turn well before the U.S. coast thanks to healthy westerlies.  Bermuda should be getting ready for some sort of blow from Florence this weekend. 

Elsewhere, the wave following Florence mentioned yesterday looks pathetic but may still have life down the road, while a wave in the Caribbean remains disorganized and is expected to stay that way.  At press time recon was flying into an area off the SE U.S./mid-Atlantic states but this disturbance is moving northeastward away from the U.S. 

In the 21 tropical seasons that I have been forecasting in the Gulf of Mexico, I cannot remember a first week of September without some sort of tropical watch and/or warning across the region…it’s been very quiet…let’s hope it stays that way for another 4-5 weeks!  Tonight at 6 and 10pm I’ll be showing current water temperatures in the Gulf…and we’re not out of the woods yet. 

Rob Perillo

Not a bad looking forecast as our upper pattern will continue to support slightly cooler than normal temperatures at least for the next few days.  Higher humidity and temperatures will creep back into the region Friday into the weekend with enough moisture to produce scattered showers by Sunday.  A series of upper disturbances should give us a good shot at showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday, with another cool front moving in by Tuesday night.  That means it should be even nicer by Wednesday of next week. 

In the tropics, TD6 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Florence.  Florence has a large circulation, but convection has not been organized near the center, although the last few satellite images at press time were suggesting better organization.  Large systems usually take a while to strengthen, and with upper shear and dry air nearby, we are not expected it to strengthen to hurricane status until Thursday…or later.  But, by the weekend, conditions could become quite favorable for strengthening and a major storm is not out of the question.  The good news is that the upper westerlies coming off the U.S. this weekend should steer this system away from the Gulf and U.S. East Coast.  I’d be watching it closely though if I lived in Bermuda.  Elsewhere, another wave on the heels of Florence could develop down the road, and may take a more southerly route.  More African dust is following this wave so development will be slow. 

Rob Perillo

Our weather looks to stay quite palatable for early September with a weak frontal boundary providing slightly below normal temperatures over the next few days.  A ribbon of cloudiness that spans eastward from the Desert Southwest and the remnants of former Pacific tropical system John, will move across our region tomorrow bringing considerable high and mid-level cloudiness.  Even with some dull sunshine, I expect highs to reach the upper 80s only.  Humidity should stay comfortable through Wednesday with mostly sunny skies returning and staying with us through the end of the week.  Warmer temperatures and higher humidity should return for the end of the week and into the weekend.  The upper pattern then appears to become more favorable for scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning this weekend continuing into early next week. 

In the tropics TD 6 in the far eastern tropical Atlantic will have a hard time strengthening over the next few days with plenty of upper shear abound.  The models are calling for a relaxation in the shear beyond 48 hours giving the system opportunity for intensification.  So far this year, the shear has been slightly better than the global models have been advertising with previous tropical systems, so we’ll see how this one does.  The good news is that there should be a fair bit of upper level troughing over much of the eastern U.S. beyond 5 days which should make this system turn in the Atlantic prior to threatening any land.  Elsewhere, another wave behind TD 6 is showing signs of some organization.  Closer to home a tropical wave in the Central Caribbean has been flaring up this afternoon but has been surrounded by dry Saharan air which should keep it from developing, while an upper low in the eastern Gulf of Mexico has produced plenty of showers and storms across Florida into the Bahamas, but no development is expected here either.  

Rob Perillo

Big news of the day and not unexpected, Dr. Gray and his protégé Phillip Klotzbach have lowered the 2006 hurricane season forecast.  The team from Colorado State is forecasting 13 tropical storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.  These numbers are much closer, if not below average.  The main culprits as we have been saying, are the dry, dusty air associated with below normal rains in the Sahel region of Africa, and the wind shear associated with an almost El Nino like Pacific pattern.  In addition, activity has been much busier this year in the tropical Pacific which usually has a negative influence on the Atlantic Basin, particularly the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. 

So what does all this mean for the rest of the year?  I would expect the bulk of the worst part of the hurricane season will come from the beginning of the third week of September through the first week of October.  That’s when we’ll likely see three hurricanes, two of which become major storms.  Where they go we cannot tell you, but we’ll probably have to sweat over at least one system during that three week window of opportunity.   Remember it only takes one storm in our area to make it a busy season! 

Currently in the tropics, we’re keeping an eye on a tropical wave near 38 degrees west longitude.  In addition, another wave has just come off the African coast, with another one likely to follow over the weekend.  I’d speculate that two out of these three waves will have pretty good potential for development. 

Rob Perillo