The current forecast is still on track with previous discussions. The only thing I see different today is that the frontal trough early next week could be a heavy rain maker, and perhaps a severe weather maker. In addition, the long range prognostications keep much warmer than normal conditions toward the end of the month. In addition, the pattern then may get more interesting with respect to the tropics in the Caribbean and the Gulf.Â
This year it has become obvious that El Nino has developed earlier than expected, and I think it may be stronger than anticipated.  El Nino, anomalously warm waters in the equatorial Pacific, usually produces a strong upper level shear pattern across the Caribbean which helps to keep any tropical storms from developing. Hopefully the pattern continues over the next 3-4 weeks. I will note however, that even though this pattern cuts down on the number and intensity of tropical systems, it doesn’t necessarily mean that we won’t see any hurricane activity in the Gulf this year. In fact, there is not much of a predictor of Gulf activity when El Nino is in full swing…the Gulf of Mexico is a tricky place to forecast in this pattern. During El Nino years we usually see a break down of the upper shear for a week or two and that usually opens the door for some activity…we’ll see. Two El Nino years that stick out in my mind are 1957 (Hurricane Audrey) and 1992 (Hurricane Andrew).  I’ll talk more about this tonight at 10pm and in future blogs. Â
Rob Perillo