KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

A warm front will move into the region from the south Saturday sparking off showers and some thunderstorms.  This weather scenario could be similar to last Thursday with some pretty strong storms.  Now we’re not expected tornadic activity like we saw last Thursday, but computer models notoriously underestimate that dynamics of these scenarios, especially in an El Nino pattern.  So be on the look out tomorrow just in case.  Heat and humidity will follow into the region for Sunday with summer-like conditions moving in and staying with us through much of next week.  A fairly strong ridge of high pressure will envelope the region next week likely keeping us dry and hot into next weekend.  With a breezy easterly flow overnight lows should be too warm, but will be near 70 degrees.  The next front looks to get here after next weekend.  Have a good weekend!   

Rob Perillo

Cooler and drier weather is on the way this evening and will stay with us through tomorrow night.  As previously expected there will be a return flow from the Gulf this weekend but limited dynamics and deep moisture should keep any shower activity to 20% or less.  Next week looks closer to summer than fall with highs near 90 and lows creeping closer to 70 at night.  Enjoy! 

Rob Perillo

Another front is on the way this evening which should bring even cooler weather to the area late tomorrow through Friday night.  Ahead of the front, moisture is limited, but a few sprinkles will be possible later tonight with scattered showers tomorrow morning ending by early afternoon.  Temperatures will be milder tonight, in the mid-60s, while tomorrow we’ll top out in the mid-80s before cooler air begins to move in late tomorrow afternoon or evening.  Friday should be great with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 while morning lows will be in the mid-upper 50s.  This weekend will bring a mixed bag of weather with clouds returning Saturday as the front backs up to the north as a warm front.  A few showers will be possible as the front advances, but the models have been inconsistent with the moisture fields and instability.  Nonetheless scattered showers will be possible Saturday afternoon/evening with isolated showers possible Sunday into next week.  Summer makes a little return Sunday into early next week with warmer temperatures and higher humidity. 

In the tropics, TD#9 formed in the mid-sub tropical Atlantic and like most systems this year, will stay an Atlantic storm.  TD#9 is forecast to become a tropical storm, if so the name will be Isaac. 

Rob Perillo

We’re off to a great start to the work and school week with a nice and dry ridge of high pressure moving in.  Look for lows tonight to drop to there coolest values this season (mid-upper 50s).  We’ll see tons of sun tomorrow with partly cloudy skies as we head into Wednesday.  A weak warm front will advance northward toward the area by Thursday morning with another cool front arriving for Thursday night.  We might see a few showers Thursday but better rain chances are ahead for Saturday.  In between, Friday looks nice.  This weekend will bring a healthy warm front back into the region which should spark off storms, some of which could be strong, on Saturday.  Thereafter, a wagging frontal boundary may keep scattered showers in the region accompanied by above normal temperatures into early next. 

Rob Perillo

What a last 24 hours!  yesterday was just another reminder of how quick the atmosphere can change and get “severe” on us.  On the one year anniversary of Hurricane Rita Acadiana is ripped with a mesocyclone that produced tornadic activity west of Erath, near Coteau and Cade.  National Weather Service estimates of the tornadic winds were in the F1 range, up to 112mph winds.  Earlier in the day another tornadic storm was observed in themarsh near Forked Island.  Yesterday ranks with some of the bigger tornado events in Acadiana.  Iin fact, the last time we saw dynamics like this was back in 1989 with a strong June cold front.  (I remember 80 degree dew points on that day).

Conditions were just perfect for producing the tornadoes yesterday as a strong warm front provided lift and deep tropical moisture, and unseasonably high dew points, while cool, dense air aloft, and veering wind shear provided the rest of the ingredients.  The mesocyclone that developed yesterday cut a path 12 miles long with a wall cloud that looked up to a half mile wide.  The widths of the tornado touch-downs were estimated by the NWS to be 20 yards.  As alluded to in an earlier blog, it really looks like that while El Nino knocks down the number of tropical systems, it heightens Acadiana’s risk of severe weather in the fall, winter and early spring time…so here we go! 

Scattered storms will stay in the forecast for Saturday with healthier storms possible ahead of a cold front early Sunday.  The Storm Prediction Center does have us hatched in for a slight risk of severe weather Sunday, so we’ll have to keep on eye on this one too. Skies should clear by late Sunday, with beautiful weather early next week.  Unfortunately the atmosphere will reload again by Thursday…stay tuned…

Rob Perillo

The forecast remains on track per the previous blog.  Even though we have lots of outdoor activities coming this weekend the scattered showers that we see Friday and Saturday should be fast moving and short-lived.  Sunday will bring a better chance of thunderstorms ahead of the next cool front that should get here Sunday night.  In addition, the storms on Sunday could be on the strong side so we’ll keep an eye on it. 

In the tropics, Hurricane Helene has made a northward turn and will be heading into the north Atlantic becoming extratropical with 72 hours.  Elsewhere, a tropical wave southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is showing signs of organization.  Long-range models capture this feature and keep the system and Atlantic storm.  Believe it or not this tropical season has been busier than the average over the last 40 years, but all the big storms have stayed way out to sea…and compared to last year, 2006 has been a stroll in the park!  

Rob Perillo

Our taste of fall will stay with us through Wednesday.  By the time fall gets here on the calendar, it will feel more like summer….go figure.  After two comfortable days the heat and humidity will begin to return for Thursday with hot and humid conditions and a few scattered showers for Friday and Saturday.  A frontal boundary will approach Sunday kicking off a better chance of showers and storms.  Drier weather should return for early next week. 

The tropics remain very well-behaved in the Gulf and Caribbean.  So far the long range computer models do not indicate any trouble through the first few days of October.  Keep your fingers crossed! 

Rob Perillo

The coolest air of the season is on the way with comfortable humidity returning to the region for a few days.  Look for mostly sunny days with highs in the mid-80s through Thursday with lows tomorrow night and Wednesday night dropping into the lower 60s.  Higher humidity will return for Thursday afternoon with scattered showers and storms possible late Friday into early Saturday.  The next front will arrive by late Saturday with drier conditions returning for Sunday into early next week.  Incidentally fall officially begins 11:03pm Friday night, but we get our fall preview tomorrow night! 

Rob Perillo

This weekend will be just another typical summer weekend as the dry air retreats hastily back to the north.  Tropical moisture will build over the weekend and with the daytime heating, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms from midday through the afternoon and ending by 7:00pm.  At press time it looks like rain coverage tomorrow will be concentrated mainly over the coastal parishes and from Lafayette on westward, with more widespread coverage on Sunday.  A strong upper level system that will produce severe weather over the nation’s midsection this weekend will approach the region Monday igniting strong storms and locally heavy rainfall.  The storms Monday may approach severe limits so be on the lookout.  Tuesday through Thursday look great with drier and cooler conditions.  I expect highs to suppressed into the mid-80s while overnight lows drop into mid-, possibly the lower 60s! 

The current forecast is still on track with previous discussions.  The only thing I see different today is that the frontal trough early next week could be a heavy rain maker, and perhaps a severe weather maker.  In addition, the long range prognostications keep much warmer than normal conditions toward the end of the month.  In addition, the pattern then may get more interesting with respect to the tropics in the Caribbean and the Gulf. 

This year it has become obvious that El Nino has developed earlier than expected, and I think it may be stronger than anticipated.  El Nino, anomalously warm waters in the equatorial Pacific, usually produces a strong upper level shear pattern across the Caribbean which helps to keep any tropical storms from developing.  Hopefully the pattern continues over the next 3-4 weeks.  I will note however, that even though this pattern cuts down on the number and intensity of tropical systems, it doesn’t necessarily mean that we won’t see any hurricane activity in the Gulf this year.  In fact, there is not much of a predictor of Gulf activity when El Nino is in full swing…the Gulf of Mexico is a tricky place to forecast in this pattern.  During El Nino years we usually see a break down of the upper shear for a week or two and that usually opens the door for some activity…we’ll see.  Two El Nino years that stick out in my mind are 1957 (Hurricane Audrey) and 1992 (Hurricane Andrew).  I’ll talk more about this tonight at 10pm and in future blogs.  

Rob Perillo