KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

The high heat (upper 90s) will continue for a couple more days with rain chances gradually increasing through the end of the week bringing our temperatures back down into the low-mid 90s.  There will be a slight chance of an isolated storm late Wednesday while an upper low and tropical moisture should bring us better rain chances for late Thursday afternoon with a good chance of scattered activity continuing into Friday.  High pressure will gradually build back into the region over the weekend into next week allowing for some scattered afternoon storm activity and temperatures persisting well into the mid-90s.  

Some interesting developments in the tropics…the strong tropical wave and low that came off the African coast yesterday has fizzled, lending to the theory that more Saharan sand/dust has mixed into the system.  Meanwhile and area of disturbed weather has been festering between the SE US Coast, the Bahamas and Bermuda; there is some potential for development here in the next few days.  Closer to home, a thunderstorm cluster and a weak area of low pressure has developed in the east-central Gulf of Mexico.  There is some possibility for slow development, but and upper low to the east should produce more wind shear by Thursday…nonetheless we’ll keep a very close eye on this feature since it is very close to home.  I have observed that the long rand computer models are lowering surface pressures across the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in the next week to 10 days so if there are any developments in the tropics it will be in these areas…we’ll see. 

The International Space Station should be visible tonight and over the next few days.  Tonight look toward the SSW sky and the station will appear out of the earth’s shadow at 9:01pm and will be heading to the ENE sky.  The station should be visible as a bright star for three minutes tonight. 

Rob Perillo

More big heat is in the forecast over the next few days as the stacked ridge of high pressure will continue to center over Louisiana.  High temperatures will again top in the upper 90s Tuesday and Wednesday with heat indices reaching the 104-108 degree mark.  The ridge will drift westward by midweek allowing scattered showers and storms to get back into the forecast.  An upper low will drift westward through the Gulf later this week allowing for a better chance of showers and storms, and cooler temperatures (lower-mid 90s).  The ridge will stay in a weakened state over the weekend into next week thereby allowing for scattered storms to stay in the forecast.  

The tropics may be beginning to perk up a little as an area of disturbed weather in the Northern Bahamas is being monitored for possible development.  In addition, a strong tropical wave with an area of low pressure emerging off of the African coast has good potential for development. 

Rob Perillo

No changes in the forecast thinking from yesterday…rain chances should be below climatology between 10-30% over the next few days while highs peak in the mid-90s…try to stay cool. 

For astronomy buffs the Perseid Meteor Shower may be visible tonight and tomorrow night.  Traditionally the peak of the show is during the late night hours but a bright moon will limit the numbers seen down to 5-15/hour vs. the normal 40-60/hr in a moonless sky.  You may want to try viewing the “skipping” meteors that appear in the early evening hours prior to the moon rising which will be before 9:30pm tonight and 10:30pm tomorrow night.  Happy viewing! 

Rob Perillo

Drier more stable air continues to roll in the region in the wake of the upper low that enhanced our rains yesterday.  Rain chances should be closer to 20% over the next several days while the upper ridge over the region strengthens.  This means that temperatures will be pushing the 95-97 degree range through early next week.  Heat indices will likely reach 102-107 so make sure you take plenty of breaks and hydrate if you are spending more than 15-20 minutes outside.  The next upper low/tropical wave should bring our rain chances back up starting Tuesday and possibly continuing for Wednesday and Thursday. 

Meanwhile, the tropics remain very quiet as the Bermuda ridge of high pressure has been stronger than normal for this time of year with upper disturbances rolling around the periphery of the high.  These disturbances have been producing the wind shear to knock down any developing system while dry, Saharan dust-filled air has also mitigated tropical activity.  As of the 10pm show tonight there was a tropical wave way out in the tropical Atlantic that was showing some deep convection with little shear and good moisture ahead of its trek…we’ll see if the National Hurricane Center identifies this area with more interest tomorrow. 

Program note: Our hurricane season special “Lessons from the Gulf” will air Saturday night at 6:30pm on KATC TV-3.  This program will highlight what we all have learned from last year’s storms to better prepare you for the storms to come.  Hope you can take a break from the heat and tune in, tape, TiVo or record to your hard drive! 

Rob Perillo  

We are still on track for increased shower and thunderstorm activity over the next few days as an upper low over Florida in tandem with a tropical wave in the NW Caribbean will move westward into the Gulf.  Activity should be enhanced late tomorrow afternoon with some storms possibly producing quite gusty winds.  This pattern of increased storms should become most active for Thursday, tailing off for Friday with a drier weekend likely. This pattern looks to repeat itself by the middle part of next week. 

NOAA came out with their updated hurricane forecast, and with no surprise, the numbers dropped similarly to what Dr. Gray and his group indicated last week.   There is still a good chance of an above normal season but this year higher than normal wind shear, accompanied by slightly above normal surface pressures in the Caribbean have prompted the experts to back down by one storm/hurricane/major hurricane this year, but the shear should relax in the weeks ahead so activity will likely ramp upward in the next 2-3 weeks.  Even though the risk of a major storm striking the Florida Panhandle to the Texas coast is significantly lower this year (per Dr. Gray et al), it only takes one storm in your backyard to make it a bad season. 

Rob Perillo

Our typical summer weather will continue for the rest of the week with up and down rain chances, temperatures in the low-mid 90s and the ever-present humidity.  Our pattern of tropical disturbances/upper lows rolling in from the east will continue as well, with the next enhancement of rains coming either Friday and/or Saturday. 

The tropics are staying relatively quiet, especially when compared to last year, as upper winds remain hostile to development, plus there has been a lot of Saharan dust mixed into the Atlantic…and dust is always a mitigating factor.  There are two areas of interest today, a tropical wave in the Eastern Caribbean and another in the mid-tropical Atlantic.  The latter area of interest does have some potential for development in the next few days, but at press time the system was disorganized and void of deep convection near the weak low pressure center that is accompanying the wave.  However, I wouldn’t be surprised if tropical activity somewhere in the Atlantic Basin, Caribbean and Gulf begins to get more organized toward the mid-latter part of next week.  Climatologically speaking we are heading into the busy weeks from mid-August through the first week of October…let’s hope for more of that Saharan dust!  

Rob Perillo

The forecast is on track this weekend with enhanced rain chances and plenty of clouds through Sunday.  It will be another hot one tomorrow, but showers and storms will likely things off in the afternoon and evening.  Some locally heavy downpours will be possible well into the night time hours with lingering showers/storms likely early Sunday.  There should be a fair bit of cloudiness into Sunday afternoon keeping temperatures on the cooler side of 90.  A resumption of the typical summer pattern is expected next week with hot and humid conditions accompanied by widely scattered (20-30%) afternoon storms each day through Friday.  There are some signals for higher rain chances to return for next weekend. 

In the tropics, TD Chris continues to fizzle thanks to the upper low to its northeast.  It’s beginning to look doubtful weather Chris will retain depression status through its Cuban trek, but whatever survives has the potential to redevelop in the southern Gulf.  The future track will bring this feature to the lower Texas coast or Northeastern Mexico by next Wednesday.  We’ll keep an eye on Chris just in case.  Elsewhere in the tropics it’s relatively quiet and may stay that way though much of next week.  Have a great weekend.  

Rob Perillo

It looks like shear and drier air entrainment courtesy of an upper low that came in from the northeast has won the battle with Tropical Storm Chris, soon to be Depression Chris.  We began to see this process late last night and it has continued all day long.  It’s a good reminder that small developing tropical systems can be very fragile at the beginning of their cycle.  There will be a few opportunities for regeneration over the next several days, but the odds of this system becoming a hurricane have been greatly diminished.  Nonetheless, whatever is left of Chris over the next few days should emerge in the Southern Gulf of Mexico and continue on toward South Texas or even Mexico thanks to a strengthening ridge of high press that will protect the Northern Gulf through the same time frame. 

Good news coming in from Dr. Gray and his group.  A number of mitigating factors have led Gray’s team to reduce the number of tropical systems expected in the Atlantic by two storms, two hurricanes and two intense hurricanes.  It will still be an above normal season but cooler than anticipated Atlantic temperatures, higher pressure in the Caribbean and stronger than normal trade winds have contributed to what is expected to be less active season as compared with 2004 and 2005.  The landfall probability of an intense storm striking somewhere from the Florida Panhandle to Texas has been reduced to 26%.  The long term normal is near 30%.  Earlier forecasts for this and last year have kept us closer to 40%.  We must remember though that it only takes one storm hitting you to make it an “active’ season.

Meanwhile, our upper level low that is beginning to cross Florida will bring enhanced rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures this weekend. We could see some locally heavy downpours for Saturday, Saturday night and Sunday.  Then the aforementioned ridge will reassert itself across the region knocking down our rain chances early next week.  Typical on and off shower activity and the ever present heat will finish off next week.   

Rob Perillo

There is little change in our forecast thinking with more hazy, hot and humid weather in the near-term, while an upper low generates storms this weekend, and then we’ll be watching Chris with greater interest. 

Chris is managing to miss the northeastern islands of the Caribbean and the NHC forecast track continues to bring this system through the “shoot” between Cuba and Florida late this weekend.  Extrapolating the long-term models certainly brings this system well into the Gulf threatening anywhere from Florida to Texas, with the latest emphasis on the Western Gulf.   The main player ahead of Chris is the upper low over the Bahamas.  If this low moves fast enough to the west there will be less shear on the storm, but if the low slows in the Gulf, there could be more shear on the system and consequently a weaker storm.  After Chris passes Hispaniola and approaches the Southeastern Bahamas, the storm will begin to encounter very warm oceanic temperatures which continue through the much of the Gulf of Mexico.  Therefore, a formidable compact hurricane is a distinct possibility. 

I get a lot of calls and emails about what I think behind the scenes…which I almost always lay it out on the air…but if I were forced to make a guess on ultimately where Chris will go, provided he misses Cuba and the shear, today I would like the Texas coast sometime Wednesday (remember this is me and NOT an official forecast).  But there is a distinct possibility that Chris will be within a few hundred miles from our coast on Tuesday, and that this “personal” forecast will likely change down the road, so as we say, “stay tuned for further updates”. 

Rob Perillo

The heat will be turned up a notch over the next several days as a stable and strengthening ridge of high pressure builds in from the east over the next several days.  That means rain chances will go down to 10% while highs will push the 95-97 degree range…heat index not included.  Heat indices could reach the 105-108 degree range so be careful if you plan on any extended time outdoors.  An upper low currently poised over the eastern Bahamas is expected to move westward over the next several days eventually enhancing our rain chances by Sunday.  This upper low may ultimately guide our newest tropical storm in the Eastern Caribbean. 

Tropical Storm Chris at press time was located near Antigua/Barbuda in the extreme Northeastern Caribbean and has strengthened to a formidable tropical storm in spite of having a small fragile circulation in a relatively hostile environment.  Surrounding pressures are high which could also be a factor in the stronger than anticipated wind field.  Chris has a ridge of high pressure to the north and the aforementioned upper low ahead.  If Chris moves in tandem with the upper low and the ridge to the north their will be ample opportunity for strengthening.  The forecast track from the National Hurricane Center brings this system to the Southeastern Gulf by late Sunday.  After that the upper low could guide the system into a weakness in the northeastern Gulf/SE U.S., or could travel farther west provided our upper low moves into Texas.  We don’t want to get too far ahead of ourselves as a lot can happen between now and the weekend, and there is some compelling guidance that weakens the system back down to a disturbance as Chris heads toward the Gulf.  Also, there is a good possibility that this tropical system could get shredded by the higher mountains of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and/or Cuba…but if this system stays north of the islands we could be seeing a hurricane threatening Gulf interests early next week.  Stay tuned…

Rob Perillo