What a difference a weekend makes…Tropical Storm Ernesto got shuttled through Haiti and the Dominican Republic and is just emerging off the Cuban coast as a ragged system. Upper level shear took its toll on the storm and helped the system take a much more northern course as compared with the projections 48-72 hours ago. This storm is another reminder that the 3-5 day forecast path is subject to large errors, and just because the cone is pointing toward you doesn’t necessarily mean the storm is coming your way. Last Friday night on the 10pm show I indicated that the models had split with forecast tracks either toward Florida or toward the Texas/Mexico coasts. I also pointed out that although the 10pm track was pointed straight at us, it was the best average based on the models…and sure enough it did change.Â
Although we do not anticipate this to be a major storm now it could be potentially be a major mess for Florida and up along the East Coast…at least it is not our problem! Â
The same upper trough that will eventually steer this system northward will bring us drier more pleasant weather after tomorrow…so get ready for it to almost feel like fall…sorry it will still be near 90 during the afternoon, but at night look for some upper 60s for later this week!  Â
Program Note: Please tune in to our 1 hour special on Katrina tonight…on my end I will be explaining why the storm became such a monster.Â
Rob Perillo