Tropical moisture continues to envelope the region with locally heavy showers and storms likely this weekend. Rain chances should be highest tomorrow and about 10-20% lower on Sunday. Our pattern should get back to “normal†early next week with scattered afternoon storms and more heat.Â
Next week may be however anything but normal provided Tropical Storm Ernesto follows the current projected path.  Right now Ernesto’s low level circulation is exposed with all the convection well east of the center. This means wind shear is keeping the storm at bay. Unfortunately the shear will begin to decrease after 24 hours…and if the storm stays south of the islands (except Jamaica) there will be ample opportunity for strengthening. Even if Ernesto makes to the Gulf as a tropical storm, Gulf water temperatures in the upper 80s combined with a low shear environment will all spell the possibility of a major storm. As for the track, we are too far out to determine what the upper air pattern will be along the northern Gulf rim next week. Computer models are split in two camps: 1) a weakness in the ridge allows for a turn to the north or 2) the ridge builds over the region and pushes the storm more westward. The third scenario is that the system slows or stalls in the Gulf. If it’s a big storm, I don’t think that would happen. So if we average the possible tracks you get something that looks like what the Hydrological Prediction Center is extrapolating…putting us in the thick of things for Thursday/Friday of next week. As we said yesterday we have plenty of time to watch this system and we can all cheer for more shear, but if this system makes hurricane status by the end of the weekend and stays on track, I would be starting to think about my hurricane plan.Â
Rob Perillo