KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

As expected we saw heavy downpours today and expect more of the same tomorrow.  In fact, rain chances are forecast to stay above normal into early next week.  There has been little change from our previous thinking on this wet pattern that we have become immersed in.  So keep the umbrella handy and expect more localized street flooding in heavier storms tomorrow. 

So what’s the skinny on TD #5?  Hurricane hunters appeared to work overtime to close off a circulation with this system so it could be officially upgraded.  TD 5 on satellite imagery looks good enough to be a depression or tropical storm, but dry air on the western side of the system combined with upper level westerly shear will make it rough for this system to develop in the near term.  An upper low to the west of the system should continue to inhibit development by providing shear and dry air, however, if this system survives the next 48 hours it will have ample opportunity to strengthen in the NW Caribbean and ultimately the Gulf of Mexico.  The rest of the road shows above normal water temperatures all the way to the Gulf so there is ample fuel available.  The key will be if TD 5 can encircle itself with a more favorable environment to build on the process of converting atmospheric and oceanic heat, while shutting out the drier stable air to its north and west.  The official NHC forecast makes this system a tropical storm tomorrow and keeps it a tropical storm through 5 days due to considerations of island interactions and negative influences…but as we all know the intensity forecast will likely change, one way or the other, it always does.  It is way too early to tell where this system will ultimately make landfall, but it is conceivable that this system could threaten anywhere in the Gulf, but I would favor the Northwestern Gulf…that means Texas and Louisiana could be in the mix.  But predicting what our upper air pattern will look like a week from now is quite tricky.  If this system were to threaten our area it would be sometime late next week.  A lot has to happen between now and five days from now when the system could enter the Gulf, so don’t let tropical anxiety get to you yet. 

Rob Perillo