Elevated rain chances will be the mainstay in the forecast through the rest of the week and into the weekend…perhaps into a good part of next week as well. Basically, the ridging aloft has weakened opening the door for daytime heating induced showers and storms. In addition, the atmospheric precipitable water has increased substantially lending to very heavy downpours with the storms. Winds aloft are quite light lending to very slow storm movement; this will lead to the possibility of localized street flooding in some of the storms. The Gulf will add to the equation funneling more thunderstorm fuel in the form of tropical moisture through the weekend and into next week.Â
The Gulf should also be wide open for tropical waves/disturbances into next week with the models beginning to bird-dog a system that will approach the Gulf next week. The models are grabbing onto a tropical wave that is roughly 800-900 miles east of the Windward Islands…so this system bears watching. Extrapolating the model data brings this impulse to our doorstep by late next week. Elsewhere, TD#4 is looking a little better on satellite imagery late this afternoon so tropical storm status may be possible by late tonight or tomorrow. This depression should stay an Atlantic system as it moves NW and eventually NNE, or it will shear apart if it tries to take a more westerly course. Â
Rob Perillo