The heat will be turned up a notch over the next several days as a stable and strengthening ridge of high pressure builds in from the east over the next several days. That means rain chances will go down to 10% while highs will push the 95-97 degree range…heat index not included. Heat indices could reach the 105-108 degree range so be careful if you plan on any extended time outdoors. An upper low currently poised over the eastern Bahamas is expected to move westward over the next several days eventually enhancing our rain chances by Sunday. This upper low may ultimately guide our newest tropical storm in the Eastern Caribbean.Â
Tropical Storm Chris at press time was located near Antigua/Barbuda in the extreme Northeastern Caribbean and has strengthened to a formidable tropical storm in spite of having a small fragile circulation in a relatively hostile environment. Surrounding pressures are high which could also be a factor in the stronger than anticipated wind field. Chris has a ridge of high pressure to the north and the aforementioned upper low ahead. If Chris moves in tandem with the upper low and the ridge to the north their will be ample opportunity for strengthening. The forecast track from the National Hurricane Center brings this system to the Southeastern Gulf by late Sunday. After that the upper low could guide the system into a weakness in the northeastern Gulf/SE U.S., or could travel farther west provided our upper low moves into Texas. We don’t want to get too far ahead of ourselves as a lot can happen between now and the weekend, and there is some compelling guidance that weakens the system back down to a disturbance as Chris heads toward the Gulf. Also, there is a good possibility that this tropical system could get shredded by the higher mountains of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and/or Cuba…but if this system stays north of the islands we could be seeing a hurricane threatening Gulf interests early next week.  Stay tuned…
Rob Perillo